Currency Hedger No Comments

USD/JPY Price – Extends rally to near 162.70 amid soaring US bond yields

  • USD/JPY rises to near 167.73 as US Treasury Yields soar, following upbeat US JOLTS Job Openings data.
  • Investors shift their focus to the US ADP Employment Change and the ISM Manufacturing PMI data for June.
  • Japan’s officials have signaled that they are ready to intervene to support the Yen.

The USD/JPY pair trades 0.1% higher to near 162.73 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The pair reflects strength as surging United States (US) Treasury Yields have strengthened the US Dollar (USD).

In the European trade, 10-year US Treasury Yields are up 0.18% to 4.47%, extending Tuesday’s little over 2% gains. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is up 0.16% to near 101.33.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.12%0.14%0.08%0.10%0.36%0.02%0.05%
EUR-0.12%0.02%-0.04%-0.01%0.26%-0.11%-0.05%
GBP-0.14%-0.02%-0.06%-0.03%0.22%-0.13%-0.05%
JPY-0.08%0.04%0.06%0.00%0.29%-0.09%-0.01%
CAD-0.10%0.01%0.03%-0.01%0.27%-0.11%-0.02%
AUD-0.36%-0.26%-0.22%-0.29%-0.27%-0.37%-0.29%
NZD-0.02%0.11%0.13%0.09%0.11%0.37%0.09%
CHF-0.05%0.05%0.05%0.01%0.02%0.29%-0.09%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

US bond yields are soaring due to signs of improving US job market conditions. On Tuesday, the US JOLTS Job Openings data for May arrived at 7.594 million fresh jobs, higher than 7.3 million estimates and the previous reading of 7.585 million.

Meanwhile, investors await the US ADP Employment Change and the ISM Manufacturing PMI data for June, which will be released during the North American session.

On the Tokyo front, investors expect the Japanese administration to intervene anytime soon to support the falling Japanese Yen (JPY). On Tuesday, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said that the administration is always ready to take necessary action on Forex; however, he didn’t deliver any comments regarding specific FX levels.

USD/JPY technical analysis

USD/JPY trades higher at around 162.73, extending its bullish bias as spot holds well above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 161.19. The overall trend of the pair is bullish, following the breakout of the Rising Channel formation.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 78.45 sits deep in overbought territory, suggesting upside momentum remains strong but also warns that the pair could be vulnerable to bouts of corrective pullback even within the broader uptrend.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the Rising Channel breakout region near 161.75, followed by the 20-day EMA near 161.19. Looking up, the pair could extend the rally towards 163.00 and 164.00.

Currency Hedger No Comments

EUR/USD Price – Weakens to near 1.1400 as ECB hike bets recede, bearish vibe prevails

  • EUR/USD weakens to around 1.1410 in Wednesday’s early European session.
  • The negative outlook of the major pair remains intact below the 100-day SMA, with bearish RSI momentum.
  • The immediate resistance level is seen at 1.1485; the first downside target to watch is 1.1320.

The EUR/USD pair trades on a negative note near 1.1410 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Cooling inflation in Germany has lowered expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes, weighing on the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD).

Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation fell to 2.3% in June, down from 2.6% in May, according to Destatis on Tuesday. This figure came in softer than the market expectations of 2.5%. ECB President Christine Lagarde last week said that there was no need for “forceful” action, citing falling energy prices and the lack of “second-round” effects like higher wage demands that could further stoke inflation.

Traders brace for the preliminary reading of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) from the Eurozone. In case of hotter-than-expected outcomes, this could lift the shared currency in the near term.

On the US docket, the ADP Employment and ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reports will be published later on Wednesday. All eyes will be on the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Thursday, which is expected to show 111,000 job additions in June.

Chart Analysis EUR/USD

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/USD maintains a bearish near-term tone as it holds below the 20-day Bollinger simple moving average (SMA) and the 100-day moving average (MA). The pair is drifting near the lower half of the recent Bollinger envelope, while the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 36 suggests weak, still-negative momentum rather than an immediate oversold condition.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 20-day Bollinger SMA near 1.1485, followed by the 100-day MA around 1.1632 and the upper Bollinger band close to 1.1650, which together outline a dense supply zone capping recovery attempts. On the downside, the June 29 low of 1.1381 acts as the next notable support. Any follow-through selling below this level could expose further weakness toward lower Bollinger band at approximately 1.1320, followed by the 1.1300 psychological level. 

Currency Hedger No Comments

EUR/JPY Price – Eyes 186.00 amid constructive bullish bias

  • EUR/JPY could test the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle around 186.00.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 57 indicates firm bullish momentum, leaving plenty of room for further gains.
  • Initial support sits at VWAP and clustered EMAs just below 185.50, providing a solid floor for buyers.

EUR/JPY moves little after four days of gains, trading around 185.70 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross is maintaining a constructive bullish bias as it holds above the session Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) at 185.29 and both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) around 184.95–184.99. This positioning suggests dip-buying interest remains in place.

Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 57.0 points to firm but not overextended upside momentum, leaving room for further gains as long as price stays supported above these nearby averages.

The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests that the EUR/JPY cross is positioned near the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle around 186.00, indicating that the asset is gearing up for a potential breakout. Further advances above the triangle would strengthen the bullish bias and support the currency cross to test the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

On the downside, initial support aligns first with the VWAP and clustered EMAs just below 185.50. A break below this confluence support zone would expose the symmetrical triangle’s lower boundary around 183.50, followed by the four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the six-month low of 180.81.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.16%0.21%0.16%0.16%0.42%0.19%0.13%
EUR-0.16%0.04%-0.02%-0.00%0.27%0.00%-0.04%
GBP-0.21%-0.04%-0.04%-0.03%0.21%-0.05%-0.06%
JPY-0.16%0.02%0.04%-0.02%0.27%-0.01%-0.04%
CAD-0.16%0.00%0.03%0.02%0.28%-0.00%-0.02%
AUD-0.42%-0.27%-0.21%-0.27%-0.28%-0.27%-0.29%
NZD-0.19%-0.01%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.27%-0.02%
CHF-0.13%0.04%0.06%0.04%0.02%0.29%0.02%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger No Comments

AUD/JPY Price – Softens below 112.50, bias turns mildly bearish

  • AUD/JPY softens to near 112.20 in Wednesday’s early European session.
  • The cross maintains a mildly bearish bias in the near term, with soft RSI momentum.
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 112.32; the initial support level is located at 111.25.

The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 112.20 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as traders are on alert for possible intervention from Japanese authorities.

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that the government was ready to take appropriate action against excessive currency moves. Additionally, Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara stated that the government will work to build an economy less vulnerable to foreign-exchange volatility while remaining prepared to intervene in currency markets if necessary.

On the other hand, a hawkish tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might help limit the Aussie’s losses. According to the RBA Minutes from its June meeting, monetary policy needed to remain restrictive to remove excess demand in the economy. Markets were pricing only about 10 basis points (bps) of additional tightening by year-end, while pricing about 17 bps of easing by 2027, per Reuters.

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY keeps a mildly bearish near-term tone as it slips just under the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands midline. Price holding below these clustered moving-average resistances suggests rallies are likely to meet supply overhead, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 44 points to soft but not extreme downside momentum.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 100-day SMA at 112.32, with the Bollinger midline around 112.62 acting as the next cap, ahead of the upper Bollinger band near 114.01. On the downside, the first noteworthy support emerges at the lower Bollinger band around 111.25, where a break would open the door to a deeper correction within the broader range.

Currency Hedger No Comments

GBP/USD Price – Slides below 1.3250 after failing to break through 23.6% Fibo.

  • GBP/USD attracts fresh sellers on Wednesday as traders await speeches from central bank chiefs.
  • The broader technical setup favors bearish traders and backs the case for a further depreciation.
  • A sustained strength beyond the  23.6% Fibo. level is needed to back the case for any recovery.

The GBP/USD pair meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Wednesday and moves away from a nearly two-week high around the 1.3275 region, touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3235 zone, down 0.20% for the day, as traders look to speeches from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh for a fresh impetus.

From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair has been struggling to make it through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June downfall. This comes on top of the recent repeated failures near the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and a breakdown below the 1.3300 mark, which, in turn, favors bearish traders. However, mixed momentum indicators warrant some caution before positioning for deeper losses.

In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 52, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing a fading positive bias. This, in turn, hints at limited upside while the GBP/USD pair remains capped by the clustered resistance overhead. In the meantime, the key support around 1.3139 remains the key structural floor, and a clear break below would open the door for a continuation of the broader downtrend.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 23.6% Fibo. level at 1.3260, with further barriers aligned at the 38.2% retracement around 1.3335 and the 200-period SMA at 1.3360, ahead of the 50.0% retracement near 1.3396. A sustained move beyond the said barriers would start to ease the broader bearish bias and pave the way for a more convincing recovery phase. However, a failure would leave the GBP/USD pair vulnerable to slide further.

GBP/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis GBP/USD
Currency Hedger No Comments

Technical Analysis – EUR/USD

Since mid-April, the EUR/USD pair has been trending downward. Recently, new lows were set and the March lows were broken, confirming the dominance of the supply side. We are currently observing a local upward correction. The price is approaching a key short-term resistance level at 1.1430, where, among other things, the lows from mid-March of this year are located.

This is the first zone where increased selling activity may emerge. If the 1.1430 level were to be broken through on a sustained basis, the next significant resistance level would be around 1.1466, where the upper boundary of the 1:1 geometry and the 100-period moving average—marked in blue on the chart—are located. A bounce off both the 1.1430 and 1.1466 levels could trigger another downward wave.

Only a sustained break above the 1.1466 zone could invalidate the current setup and increase the chances of a larger upward correction. For now, however, the base case scenario remains a continuation of the downtrend.

EURUSD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation5

Currency Hedger No Comments

Indian Rupee ticks down against US Dollar, US data in focus

  • The Indian Rupee edges down against the US Dollar as investors shift focus to an array of US data.
  • Lower oil prices continue to limit the downside in the Indian Rupee.
  • FIIs turned out to be net sellers on Monday.

The Indian Rupee (INR) opens slightly lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair edges up to near 94.65 as the US Dollar trades firmly amid caution surrounding the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, which will be released on Thursday.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.2% higher to near 101.32.

US NFP to be key trigger for global markets

The US NFP data always holds significant importance for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate expectations. However, this time, its impact is expected to be higher as remarks from new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh in his monetary policy conference this week showed that he would refrain from delivering forward-looking statements.

“Absent, also, is so-called forward guidance—which we agreed was not well suited to the current policy conjuncture,” according to the transcript of Fed Chairman Warsh’s Press Conference.

According to estimates, the US economy created 110K fresh jobs, lower than 172K in May. The Unemployment Rate remains steady at 4.3%.

In Tuesday’s session, investors will focus on the US JOLTS Job Openings data for May, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. The data is expected to show that employers posted 7.3 million fresh jobs, lower than 7.618 million in April.

This week, investors will also focus on the US ADP Employment Change and the ISM Manufacturing PMI data for June, which will be released on Wednesday.

Lower oil prices continue to offer support to Indian Rupee

Oil prices remaining lower due to the maintenance of a ceasefire between the US and Iran continue to support the Indian Rupee.

Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to outperform when oil prices remain lower.

Meanwhile, Iran continues to demand recognition of its authority near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint to almost 20% of global energy supply, for which it is in talks with Oman.

On Monday, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that Tehran has concluded a meeting with Oman in which it reviewed current issues related to the Hormuz, and also exchanged views on the future management of the waterway.

FIIs remain net sellers in Indian stock market on Monday

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continue to pare their stake in the Indian stock market even as lower oil prices have improved India Inc.’s earnings projections. On Monday, FIIs remained net sellers, offloading their stake worth Rs. 1,350.10 crore.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR trades in tight range inside Descending Triangle

USD/INR trades at around 94.65, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 94.80 and the downward-sloping border of the Descending Triangle formation, whose break level sits at 95.18.

The exchange rate has slipped back into the lower half of the recent range, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47 suggests neutral-to-soft momentum rather than outright oversold conditions, hinting that downside pressure persists but without capitulation.

On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 20-period EMA at 94.80, followed by the downtrend-line break level at 95.1822, with the origin of that bearish line near 97.0285 acting as a more distant cap. On the downside, the horizontal border of the above-mentioned chart pattern at around 94.00 is the key support zone; a break below that would expose the pair to the April 15 high at 93.47.

Currency Hedger No Comments

GBP/USD Price – Retreats from one-week top as USD firms; 1.3300 holds the key

  • GBP/USD meets with a fresh supply and snaps a three-day winning streak to a one-week high.
  • The US-Iran uncertainty and elevated Fed rate hike expectations help revive the USD demand.
  • The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before placing aggressive directional bets.

The GBP/USD pair attracts some sellers during the Asians session on Tuesday and reverses a part of the previous day’s strong move up to a one-week top. Spot prices, for now, seem to have snapped a three-day winning streak and currently trade around the 1.3235-1.3230 region, down nearly 0.20% for the day.

The US Dollar (USD) regains some positive traction amid mixed signals on US-Iran talks and firming expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates in 2026. Furthermore, the UK political uncertainty ahead of a leadership contest is seen as undermining the British Pound (GBP) and exerting some downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures near the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart favor bearish traders. Moreover, spot prices retain a negative bias below the 1.3300 mark, though momentum indicators suggest that upside attempts could persist while the broader structure is still constrained by the overhead supply zone.

In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 54 while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains modestly positive. Hence, any further decline is more likely to find a decent support near the 1.3200 mark, below which the GBP/USD pair could aim to retest the year-to-date low, around the 1.3140 region, and decline further.

On the topside, initial resistance is located near the 1.3300 round figure, which is followed by the 200-period SMA at 1.3366. A sustained strength above this barrier would start to ease the broader bearish bias and open the way for a more convincing recovery phase, though a failure would leave the GBP/USD pair vulnerable to resume its downtrend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

GBP/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis GBP/USD

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.28%0.19%0.16%0.16%0.21%-0.02%0.24%
EUR-0.28%-0.09%-0.15%-0.16%-0.08%-0.31%-0.05%
GBP-0.19%0.09%-0.04%-0.08%0.02%-0.21%0.03%
JPY-0.16%0.15%0.04%0.00%0.05%-0.16%0.07%
CAD-0.16%0.16%0.08%-0.00%0.03%-0.17%0.08%
AUD-0.21%0.08%-0.02%-0.05%-0.03%-0.20%0.07%
NZD0.02%0.31%0.21%0.16%0.17%0.20%0.23%
CHF-0.24%0.05%-0.03%-0.07%-0.08%-0.07%-0.23%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).