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GBP/USD Price – Strives to hold key 20-day EMA

  • GBP/USD consolidates around 1.3400 as Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon renew Middle East war uncertainty.
  • Iran’s Qalibaf warns that the US has violated three clauses of the 10-point proposal.
  • Investors await the US CPI data for March, which will be released on Friday.

The Pound Sterling trades in a tight range around 1.3400 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair consolidates as investors doubt over the sustainability of the ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran on early Wednesday in the wake of continued attacks by Israel on Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.

In response, Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that it would be “unreasonable” to continue permanent ceasefire talks with the US as it has violated three clauses of the 10-point proposal so far.

This has renewed fears of a prolonged war in the Middle East, weighing on risk-sensitive assets. As of writing, S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% to near 6,770. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 99.05.

On the macro front, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be released on Friday. The data is expected to show that the headline CPI grew at a faster pace of 3.3% Year-on-Year (YoY) against the prior reading of 2.4%.

GBP/USD technical analysis

GBP/USD trades sideways around 1.3400 in Thursday’s Asian session. The pair holds a modest bullish bias as spot remains above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3325, suggesting downside attempts would be absorbed near that dynamic floor.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 54 leans slightly positive, hinting that buyers retain the near-term initiative while momentum improves gradually.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the 20-day EMA around 1.3325, where a break would weaken the constructive tone and expose a deeper pullback. With no nearby technical resistances from the provided dataset, further gains would likely meet selling interest at prior swing highs on the broader chart, though the current structure leaves the path of least resistance tilted to the upside as long as price holds above the 1.3325 area.

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Trade of The Day – CHF/JPY

Facts:
The pair reached the lower limit of 1:1 structure at 199.45
Main trend on the pair remains upward from March 2025

Recommendation: 
Trade: Long position on CHFJPY at market price
Target: 203.68, 205.65
Stop: 197.58 

Opinion: Looking at CHFJPY chart, one can observe that the price bounced off the key technical support today. This support is marked with the lower limit of 1:1 structure (red rectangles) as well as 100-period moving average from D1 interval. Should buyers manage to hold the price above the support at 199.45, another upward impulse may be on the cards. We recommend taking a long position on CHFJPY at market price with two targets: 203.68 and 205.65. We also recommend placing a stop loss order at 197.58 Source: xStation5

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War-Related Shifts in The Forex Market – USD Plumets, AUD, NDZ and CHF Rebound

The two-week suspension of U.S. military operations against Iran triggered a sharp shake-up in the FX market today, reversing much of the movement seen in recent weeks. Across a broad range of currencies, cyclical currencies are the most actively bought, with the NZD, SEK, and ZAR leading the way, while the USD and CAD are at the very bottom of the strength rankings. Pairs such as NZDUSD, AUDUSD, and GBPUSD are rebounding sharply, benefiting from the simultaneous rise in U.S. index futures and the steep sell-off in oil following the largest one-day drop in crude prices in years. The dollar index is sliding by about 0.9%, which, amid a sharp rebound in risk appetite on the stock markets, is weakening demand for safe-haven assets and pushing defensive positions in the USD—and to some extent in the JPY—to the sidelines.

Today’s reaction follows the pattern seen in recent weeks, in which shifts in the intensity of the conflict with Iran quickly translate into movements among the dollar, the yen, oil, and gold, increasing volatility in major currency pairs. Above is a heatmap of volatility in the FX market. Source: xStation

However, the biggest beneficiary of today’s combination of a hawkish central bank and global de-escalation remains the kiwi: following the RBNZ’s decision, NZD/USD rose temporarily by as much as 2% to around 0.5844, and is currently holding gains of around 1.7% at an exchange rate of approximately 0.5824. Investors interpreted the bank’s statement as a “hawkish pause”—the RBNZ clearly signaled its readiness for rapid rate hikes if inflation spreads beyond the energy sector and begins to affect wages and price expectations. At the same time, the bank emphasized that the supply shock linked to the earlier rise in oil prices is temporary, and that weaker domestic demand and rising spare capacity limit the risk of a second round of inflation. In this environment, the NZD benefits in two ways—as a currency with a relatively high interest rate premium and as a classic representative of the risk-on basket, which is now returning to favor following the suspension of U.S.-Iran hostilities. If the window for peace talks in Islamabad does not close too abruptly, the NZD’s current edge over the USD may hold, though ongoing instability in the region and the risk of a sudden escalation still call for caution when extending positions. 

The NZDUSD pair tested an important long-term control point marked by the 200-day EMA today. The retest has so far proved unsuccessful.

Source: xStation

The material on this page does not constitute financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other specific needs. All information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyzes published on the Website or transmitted To you by other means, it is provided for information purposes only and should in no way be construed as an offer or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of a legal or financial nature on which any investment decisions you make should be based exclusively To your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation, or other specific needs, any decision to act on the information published on the Website or sent to you by other means is entirely at your own risk if you In doubt or unsure about your understanding of a particular product, instrument, service or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading. Investing in CFDs carries a high level of risk, as they are leveraged products and have small movements Often the market can result in much larger movements in the value of your investment, and this can work against you or in your favor. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account investments objectives and level of experience, before trading and, if necessary, seek independent advice.

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NZD/USD – Hawkish RBNZ Decision And TACO Trade Support The NZD

NZDUSD gained as much as 2.00% following the RBNZ decision, supported both by the more hawkish tone of the central bank and the global move after the de-escalation of US–Iran tensions. The kiwi reached around 0.5844 (currently 0.5824). Investors interpreted the decision as a hawkish pause. The RBNZ emphasized that if inflationary pressure spreads beyond energy and begins to affect wages, pricing behavior, or inflation expectations, decisive and rapid rate hikes may be necessary.

The core message from the RBNZ is that the inflation outlook has worsened, even if growth conditions have not improved. The bank indicated that the conflict in the Middle East has significantly altered the outlook through supply chain disruptions and rising oil and fuel prices, which will translate into higher inflation in the short term. Official forecasts point to inflation at 3.0% in March and 4.2% in June, above the 1–3% target range, with key transmission channels including transport, airfares, and food.

At the same time, the RBNZ does not want to overreact to what may be a temporary supply shock. The bank stressed that the situation differs from 2022, as demand in the economy is currently much weaker and spare capacity should limit second-round inflation effects. This is important because domestic activity remains weak: GDP growth is minimal, financial conditions have tightened, and mortgage rates have increased. In other words, the RBNZ faces a difficult trade-off between rising inflation and a still fragile recovery.

Therefore, the decision was perceived as hawkish despite no rate hike. The committee considered more preemptive action to prevent inflation expectations from becoming unanchored but ultimately chose to wait for more data. There are also growing expectations that July could be the first possible timing for rate hikes if inflation pressures persist.

The market backdrop further strengthened the NZD move. The two-week US–Iran ceasefire triggered a strong risk-on move — US500 futures rose around 2.5%, oil prices declined, and the dollar weakened. This supported cyclical currencies, with the NZD standing out thanks to an additional domestic catalyst. At the time of writing, NZDUSD is gaining 1.67%.

The material on this page does not constitute financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other specific needs. All information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyzes published on the Website or transmitted To you by other means, it is provided for information purposes only and should in no way be construed as an offer or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of a legal or financial nature on which any investment decisions you make should be based exclusively To your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation, or other specific needs, any decision to act on the information published on the Website or sent to you by other means is entirely at your own risk if you In doubt or unsure about your understanding of a particular product, instrument, service or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading. Investing in CFDs carries a high level of risk, as they are leveraged products and have small movements Often the market can result in much larger movements in the value of your investment, and this can work against you or in your favor. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account investments objectives and level of experience, before trading and, if necessary, seek independent advice.

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EUR/USD – Rises above 1.1650, moving averages amid bullish reversal

  • EUR/USD may rise toward the six-week high of 1.1795.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 56 indicates positive momentum above the midline.
  • The immediate support lies at the 50-day EMA of 1.1632.

EUR/USD extends its winning streak for the third successive day, trading around 1.1670 during Asian hours on Wednesday. The daily chart technical analysis indicates a bullish reversal as the pair is rising above the descending channel pattern.

The EUR/USD pair has rebounded above the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), framing a tentative bullish bias after an earlier downside phase.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator at 56 shows positive momentum above the midline, backing the recovery and reducing immediate downside pressure. This configuration points to buyers regaining control as long as the EUR/USD pair holds above recent breakout levels, with scope for an extension higher if it can sustain above the shorter moving average cluster.

On the upside, the EUR/USD pair may target the six-week high of 1.1795, reached on March 2. Further advances would support the pair in exploring the region around 1.2082, the highest since June 2021, reached on January 27.

The EUR/USD pair may find the immediate support at the 50-day EMA of 1.1632, followed by the nine-day EMA of 1.1575. A return to the descending channel would put downward pressure on the pair to test the eight-month low of 1.1411, recorded on March 13. Further declines would put downward pressure on the pair to test the descending channel around 1.1220.

EUR/USD: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.64%-0.77%-0.74%-0.32%-1.04%-1.49%-0.93%
EUR0.64%-0.14%-0.13%0.32%-0.40%-0.89%-0.30%
GBP0.77%0.14%0.00%0.46%-0.24%-0.72%-0.16%
JPY0.74%0.13%0.00%0.44%-0.26%-0.74%-0.17%
CAD0.32%-0.32%-0.46%-0.44%-0.70%-1.16%-0.61%
AUD1.04%0.40%0.24%0.26%0.70%-0.48%0.08%
NZD1.49%0.89%0.72%0.74%1.16%0.48%0.57%
CHF0.93%0.30%0.16%0.17%0.61%-0.08%-0.57%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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AUD/JPY Gains momentum, bullish bias prevails above 100-day EMA

  • AUD/JPY strengthens to near 111.80 in Wednesday’s Asian session. 
  • The cross maintains the constructive outlook above the 100-day EMA, with bullish RSI momentum. 
  • The initial support level is located at 111.00; the first upside barrier emerges at 112.50.  

The AUD/JPY cross gathers strength to around 111.80 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid improved risk sentiment. US President Donald Trump said late Tuesday that he had agreed “to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” on the condition that Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi stated that during the two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz “will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.” Easing tensions in the Middle East undermines a safe-haven currency such as the JPY and acts as a tailwind for the cross in the near term. 

On the other hand, fears that Japanese authorities would step in to support the domestic currency might cap the downside for the JPY. Japan’s top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said last week that officials may need to take “decisive” steps if speculative moves persist in the currency market.

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, the near-term bias of AUD/JPY is bullish as price extends its advance well above the 100-day exponential moving average around 107.50, confirming a dominant uptrend and resilient dip demand. The latest candles hold in the upper half of the Bollinger Band envelope, while the bands remain relatively wide, signalling sustained upside momentum rather than a volatility blow-off. RSI has rebounded toward the high-50s, recovering from mid-range readings and aligning with renewed buying pressure after the recent consolidation above the 111.00 handle.

Initial support emerges at 111.00, where recent lows converge with the mid-Bollinger zone, and a break below would expose deeper pullback risk toward the 110.00 area. Stronger downside protection aligns near the 109.00 region, close to the Bollinger lower band cluster and prior congestion, and a loss of this floor would weaken the broader bullish structure. On the topside, immediate resistance stands at the March 19 high of 112.61, followed by the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band of 113.15. 

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EUR/USD hits one-week highs beyond 1.1570 highs as sentiment brightens

  • EUR/USD pierces the range top at 1.1570 amid a brighter market mood.
  • Eurozone Services PMI has been revised slightly higher in March.
  • Investors hold their breath ahead of Trump’s deadline for destroying Iran.

The Euro (EUR) has brushed off previous weakness to extend its recovery against the US Dollar (USD) to reach fresh weekly highs above 1.1570 on Tuesday’s European morning session. The market sentiment has improved, with European equities turning positive after a negative opening, and Eurozone services activity revised up, which has provided some support for the common currency.

Eurozone HCOB Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has been revised to 50.2 on Tuesday from the 50.1 preliminary reading, although it remains significantly below February’s 51.9 reading. Among country members, Spain’s services activity stands out with a 53.3 reading, although France’s services contracted for the third consecutive month, and Germany’s expansion was revised down to 50.9 from preliminary estimations of 51.2.

Investors’ appetite for risk remains limited as the US deadline to Iran draws closer. US President Donald Trump reiterated his threats on Monday, warning Tehran that the US could destroy a country tonight if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened before Tuesday, at 8 PM Easter Time (00:00 GMT on Wednesday).

Previously, the US and Iran rejected the 45-day ceasefire proposal offered by Pakistan, and Tehran came out with an alternative plan, considered “significant” by Trump but not good enough.

Before that, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Governing Council member, Dimitar Radev, affirmed that it is still “too early” to say whether the bank will hike rates in April, as they might need some data amid the elevated level of uncertainty.

Technical Analysis: Pushing against the range top

EUR/USD Chart Analysis

The EUR/USD has turned higher, with technical indicators in the 4-hour chart suggesting an incipient bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) nears 60 after having remained flat around the 50 level, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is popping up above zero, although the MACD line remains practically flat.

A confirmation above the near-term channel’s top, at the 1.1570 area, would expose the late March and early April highs, in the area between 1.1630 and 1.1640. Further up, the March 10 high, at 1.1667, emerges as a plausible target.

Immediate support emerges at the 1.1505 area, which held bears on April 2 and 6. A confirmation below here would expose the March 30 and 31 lows near 1.1440, ahead of the multi-month lows, at 1.1411 hit in mid-March.

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Commodity Talk – Oil, Natgas, Gold and Cocoa

Oil:

  • Brent crude oil exceeds $110 on the June contract amid further escalation of the situation in the Middle East.
  • Despite the emergence of prospects for a ceasefire, Iran has rejected all terms from the United States.
  • Iran indicated it wants permanent peace and the withdrawal of American troops. A ceasefire could be preparation for a stronger strike.
  • The next 48-hour deadline announced by Trump expires at 12:00 GMT from Tuesday to Wednesday, although Iran has repeatedly indicated it does not intend to comply.
  • The Wall Street Journal indicates that the United States is preparing to strike energy and transport infrastructure in Iran.
  • During the holiday weekend, the highest number of ships since the beginning of the conflict passed through the Strait of Hormuz, which is related to agreements between Iran and several Asian countries.
  • Ships from countries such as India, Pakistan, the Philippines, Malaysia, and China have recently passed through the Strait of Hormuz. It is unknown whether the agreements on the passage of ships concerned the flag or specific units.
  • Pakistan was said to have reached an agreement for the passage of 20 units; theoretically, all Indian units can cross the strait. Iran indicates that all ships from Iraq can also freely pass through the strait. However, there are no details of such agreements, and additionally, vessel insurance remains a key aspect.
  • OPEC+ agreed during a weekend meeting that it will increase production by another 206,000 barrels per day in May at the moment the Strait of Hormuz opens.
  • It is worth emphasizing that Russia also has major problems with increasing production and exports, which is related to Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.

New production quotas for countries in the agreement on voluntary production cuts. It is worth noting that countries like Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and also Russia have significantly reduced their production volumes recently. Source: OPEC

​​​​​​​Oil is currently in a zone of strong supply and is no longer reacting as dynamically as it was a few days ago. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, but some ships are passing through, so prices may be under slight pressure. Nevertheless, a few ships will not lead to a significant improvement in the global supply situation. Source: xStation5

Gas:

  • Gas prices fell toward $2.8/MMBTU due to the end of the heating season in the USA, although on Monday we observed an attempted recovery due to forecasts indicating lower temperatures.
  • Gas production on Monday was 110.4 bcfd, which was an almost 3% increase compared to last year. In turn, domestic demand was almost 73 bcfd, which was a level nearly 7% lower than a year ago.
  • LNG exports amounted to 20.4 bcfd, which was a level almost 2% higher than in the previous week. It is worth emphasizing that despite global tension in the LNG gas market due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the United States cannot significantly increase export capacities beyond current levels due to the use of full export capacities.
  • It is expected that by 2030, export capacities in North America will increase to approx. 30 bcfd.

​​​​​​​Forecasts for the next 2 weeks indicate that temperatures will be higher than standard. This means that gas consumption for heating purposes should be minimal. Nevertheless, seasonal forecasts suggest that in the summer period, temperatures should also be higher, which means higher consumption in the future. Source: NOAA

​​​​​​​Gas inventories have fallen toward the 5-year average, but are now starting to rebound. In March, we had 2 reports that showed a rebound in inventories, despite the theoretical duration of the heating season. Source: EIA

​​​​​​​The price is at very important support around $2.8/MMBTU. Source: xStation5

Gold:

  • Gold remains at lower levels after Friday’s pullback. Gold still remains trapped amid rising expectations for interest rate hikes and due to massive geopolitical risk and uncertainty regarding further strong global debt growth.
  • According to a World Gold Council report, central banks still intend to buy gold in 2026.
  • Goldman Sachs maintains price forecasts above $5500 per ounce at the end of this year.
  • Signing an agreement to end the fighting or a simple ceasefire could theoretically mean a reduction in geopolitical risk, but also mean a temporary rebound in inflation.
  • Currently, we see that gold or silver behaves more as a risk asset, dependent on interest rates, which is why we observe a high correlation with American indices.
  • It is worth remembering, however, that in 2020, when all assets lost value very strongly, gold rebounded quite quickly after a larger correction.
  • The current correction since the beginning of March is approx. 15%, although at one point the drop was nearly 25%.

​​​​​​​The correlation between the price of gold and the US500 has been quite high since almost the beginning of this year. Nevertheless, the scale of the US500 rebound recently does not coincide so strongly with the rebound in the gold price. Source: xStation5

Cocoa:

  • The price of cocoa rebounded at the turn of March and April. However, the peaks from March 11 were not broken, which means a lack of a new sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
  • A Bloomberg Intelligence report indicates that chocolate sales in the USA during the Easter period were 5% lower, which continues to mean destruction of consumer demand due to the persistence of high prices.
  • Cheaper cocoa beans should enter the market in the second half of the year and have the greatest impact on product prices in 2027. Nevertheless, it cannot be ruled out that producers, in order to recover losses, will continue to maintain higher margins with lower bean prices.
  • Cocoa inventories on ICE rose to a 1.5-year peak, reaching almost 2.4 million bags.
  • Just before the start of the mid-season, about half of Ivory Coast and 2/3 of Ghana are currently experiencing dry conditions, which could potentially reduce harvests in the coming months.
  • Nevertheless, taking into account the increase in inventories and oversupply for the second year in a row, a strong price rebound at this point due to potentially worse production is unlikely. The key aspect of the market at this moment is low demand, which shows that chocolate producers have dealt with the lower availability of the raw material that took place after 2022.
  • It is worth remembering that the massive increase in fertilizer prices after 2022 also resulted in less fertilization of cocoa crops, which affected the reduction of production in 2023 and 2024 (aside from weather factors). Therefore, the current increase in fertilizer prices could potentially affect the 2026/2027 main season.

​​​​​​​The cocoa price remains at low levels due to the lack of signs of a demand rebound. Theoretically, we should observe an improvement in the second half of this year after the exhaustion of inventories from previous years. Source: xStation5

The material on this page does not constitute financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other specific needs. All information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyzes published on the Website or transmitted To you by other means, it is provided for information purposes only and should in no way be construed as an offer or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of a legal or financial nature on which any investment decisions you make should be based exclusively To your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation, or other specific needs, any decision to act on the information published on the Website or sent to you by other means is entirely at your own risk if you In doubt or unsure about your understanding of a particular product, instrument, service or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading. Investing in CFDs carries a high level of risk, as they are leveraged products and have small movements Often the market can result in much larger movements in the value of your investment, and this can work against you or in your favor. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account investments objectives and level of experience, before trading and, if necessary, seek independent advice.