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GBP/USD Retakes 1.3200; bearish bias persists amid geopolitical risks

  • GBP/USD gains some positive traction as reports of a 45-day US-Iran ceasefire undermine the USD.
  • Persistent geopolitical uncertainties could limit deeper USD losses and cap the upside for the pair.
  • The bearish technical setup further warrants caution before positioning for further appreciation.

The GBP/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers near the 1.3175 region during the Asian session on Monday, and for now, seems to have snapped a two-day losing streak. Spot prices climb back above the 1.3200 mark in the last hour, though any meaningful appreciation still seems elusive amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties.

Bloomberg, citing Axios, reported that the US, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire that could lead to an end of fighting. This, in turn, keeps a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and offers some support to the GBP/USD pair. However, the risk of a further escalation of the conflict remains in play amid US President Donald Trump’s fresh threat to target Iran’s power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Tuesday.

From a technical perspective, the near-term bias is mildly bearish as the GBP/USD pair holds well below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which continues to slope lower and cap the broader trend. Adding to this, the momentum has faded after last week’s rebound as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is flattening just under the zero line and showing a marginally negative histogram, suggesting a lack of sustained buying pressure.

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 43, below the 50 midline, which reinforces a soft downside tone rather than an oversold extreme. Hence, any further move up is likely to confront immediate resistance at 1.3240, with a stronger cap near 1.3300, where recent swing highs converge, and short-term sellers have reappeared. A sustained move above the latter would be needed to challenge the declining 200-period SMA around 1.3370 and start easing the prevailing bearish bias.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the recent floor around 1.3190, where a break would open the way toward the lower 1.3150 region as the next bearish target.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

GBP/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis GBP/USD
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AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Gains ground above 110.00 as mild bullish bias persists

  • AUD/JPY drifts higher to around 110.20 in Monday’s Asian session. 
  • The cross keeps a mildly bullish vibe, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out amid neutral RSI momentum. 
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 111.25; initial support is located at 110.00.  

The AUD/JPY cross attracts some buyers to near 110.20 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on expectations of further interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). 

However, the upside for the cross might be limited as escalating tensions in the Middle East could boost safe-haven demand for the JPY. Iran’s central military command on Monday warned of far more “devastating and widespread” retaliation if its adversaries hit civilian targets. The statement came after US President Donald Trump threatened to destroy Iran’s power plants and bridges if Tehran didn’t make a deal to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, the near-term bias of AUD/JPY is mildly bullish as price holds above the rising 100-day exponential moving average near 107.35, extending the broader uptrend despite the latest pullback. The RSI eases to the midline, suggesting that further consolidation cannot be ruled out in the near term. 

Immediate resistance emerges near the Bollinger middle band of 111.25. Above that, the next upside reference aligns near the March 19 high of 112.61, en route to the upper Bollinger Band of 113.65. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 110.00 psychological level. A deeper setback would target the lower limit of the Bollinger Band near 108.75, followed by the 100-day EMA around 107.35. 

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USD/JPY Continues to hold 20-day EMA amid fears of Middle East war escalation

  • USD/JPY edges down to near 159.55 as the US Dollar ticks lower.
  • US President Trump promises an assault on Iran if it doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Investors await the US ISM Services PMI data for March.

The USD/JPY pair trades marginally down at around 159.55 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The pair shows a subdued performance as the US Dollar (USD) ticks lower, while broadly remaining firm due to threats from United States (US) President Donald Trump that he will destroy Iranian infrastructure if it doesn’t agree to a deal.

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower to near 100.15.

Over the weekend, US President Trump promised “hell” for Iran’s power plants and bridges, through a post on Truth.Social, if Tehran doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz before the deadline, which is Tuesday, April 7, at 9:00 PM Eastern time.

On the macro front, investors await the US ISM Services PMI data for March, which will be released at 14:00 GMT. The Services PMI is expected to arrive lower at 55.0 from 56.1 in February.

Meanwhile, fears of escalating Middle East war have also improved the safe-haven demand of the Japanese Yen (JPY).

USD/JPY technical analysis

USD/JPY ticks lower at around 159.55 as of writing. However, the near-term bias is bullish as price holds within an ascending channel and consolidates beneath the upper boundary. The pair trades above the 20-day exponential moving average around 158.90, which underpins the advance and aligns with the pattern of higher lows along the channel floor near 158.10.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shifted into the 40.00-60.00 zone, indicating positive, though not extreme, momentum that supports ongoing upside pressure while the channel structure is respected.

Initial resistance emerges at 160.45, the recent swing high, with the channel top near 161.00 as the next barrier to extended gains. A clear break above the latter would open the way toward higher psychological levels beyond 162.00. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA near 158.90, ahead of the channel base around 158.10, which defines the lower boundary of the current uptrend. A daily close below 158.10 would weaken the bullish structure and expose deeper retracement levels toward the mid-157.00s.

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AUD/USD Price Forecast: Tests nine-day EMA after breaking above 0.6900

  • AUD/USD may find the initial support at the 11-week low of 0.6833.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index hovers near 43, suggesting mild bullish pressure.
  • The pair tests the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 0.6918.

AUD/USD holds gains after two days of losses, trading around 0.6910 during the Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair remains within a descending wedge pattern, suggesting that selling pressure is gradually weakening as lower highs and lower lows converge. This structure often reflects a loss of bearish momentum, increasing the likelihood of a bullish breakout.

However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 43, suggesting a bearish bias, with momentum slipping below the midline after failing to sustain earlier strength. Moreover, the near-term bias is bearish as the AUD/USD pair holds below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the flatter 50-day EMA.

The initial support lies at the 11-week low of 0.6833, which was recorded on March 30, followed by the lower boundary of the descending wedge around 0.6810. A break below the wedge would strengthen the bearish bias and open the doors for the AUD/USD pair to navigate the region around a deeper 0.6400 rebound support zone.

The AUD/USD pair could find the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 0.6918, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6958 around the upper boundary of the wedge. A sustained break above this confluence resistance zone would lead the pair to test the 0.7187, the highest since June 2022, reached on March 11.

AUD/USD: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.02%-0.09%-0.05%-0.05%-0.15%-0.14%0.09%
EUR0.02%-0.04%-0.06%0.00%-0.14%-0.14%0.09%
GBP0.09%0.04%-0.02%-0.00%-0.09%-0.10%0.16%
JPY0.05%0.06%0.02%0.02%-0.11%-0.11%0.13%
CAD0.05%-0.00%0.00%-0.02%-0.10%-0.10%0.14%
AUD0.15%0.14%0.09%0.11%0.10%-0.01%0.24%
NZD0.14%0.14%0.10%0.11%0.10%0.01%0.26%
CHF-0.09%-0.09%-0.16%-0.13%-0.14%-0.24%-0.26%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

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Trade of The Day – AUD/JPY

Facts: 
Pair bounced off the lower limit of the 1:1 structure at 109.80
The main sentiment remains bullish from April 2025

Recommendation: 
Trade: Long AUDJPY at market price
Target: 113.45
Stop: 108.80

Opinion: Looking at the D1 interval on AUDJPY chart, one can see that the price bounced off the key support. The support is marked with the lower limit of 1:1 structure at 109.80. In addition, the price sits above the 100-period moving average from the D1 interval. Taking this into account, another upward impulse is the base case scenario. We recommend going long AUDJPY at market price with a target of 113.45. We also recommend placing a stop loss order at 108.80. Source: xStation5
 

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EUR/GBP Analysis – Euro stalls below the 0.8740 resistance area

  • EUR/GBP flatlines around 0.8720 on Friday after bouncing from 0.8700 support.
  • The pair has rallied nearly 1% over the last three weeks, despite the risk-off sentiment.
  • The Euro is likely to require an additional impulse to breach resistance at 0.8740.

EUR/GBP’s reversal from one-month highs at 0.8740 found support above 0.8700 earlier this week, before stalling halfway through the last few days’ range around 0.8720. Technical indicators show waning bullish momentum, while thinned market volumes suggest that further consolidation is the most likely outcome on Friday.

The Euro (EUR) remains on track for a nearly 0.5% weekly gain and is nearly 1% up over the last three weeks. The risk-averse sentiment stemming from the war in Iran has been weighing both currencies against the safe-haven US Dollar (USD). Still, the positive manufacturing activity and the moderate uptick in inflation seen in the Eurozone earlier this week have provided some support to the Euro (EUR), while UK manufacturing PMI failed to convince investors.

Chart Analysis EUR/GBP

Technical Analysis

EUR/GBP’s near-term bias remains mildly bullish, although technical indicators point to a weakening momentum. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index at 58 stays above its midline, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator slips marginally below the zero line, and the MACD line has crossed below the Signal line, which is a bearish sign.

Bears will have to breach Wednesday’s and Tuesday’s lows, at 0.8705 and 0.8676, respectively, to undermine the near-term bullish structure and expose the 0.8630-08635 area, which provided support to the pair on March 23, 24, and 26.

On the upside, bulls are likely to require additional impulse to break resistance at the 0.8740 area (March 3 and April 1 highs), and shift the focus to the key area between 0.8790 and 0.8800, which capped bulls several times in December and early March

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.02%-0.11%0.00%0.01%-0.12%0.13%-0.08%
EUR0.02%-0.06%0.02%0.03%0.01%0.13%-0.06%
GBP0.11%0.06%0.11%0.08%0.11%0.20%-0.00%
JPY0.00%-0.02%-0.11%0.00%-0.01%0.10%-0.11%
CAD-0.01%-0.03%-0.08%-0.00%-0.01%0.12%-0.09%
AUD0.12%-0.01%-0.11%0.01%0.00%0.12%-0.09%
NZD-0.13%-0.13%-0.20%-0.10%-0.12%-0.12%-0.21%
CHF0.08%0.06%0.00%0.11%0.09%0.09%0.21%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/JPY Price Gathers strength to near 184.00, bullish bias persists above 100-day EMA

  • EUR/JPY edges higher to near 184.15 in Friday’s early European session. 
  • The positive outlook of the cross remains intact above the 100-day EMA, with bullish RSI momentum. 
  • The initial support level is located at 183.50; the first upside barrier emerges at 184.80. 

The EUR/JPY cross gathers strength around 184.15 during the early European session on Friday. Trading volumes are likely to be thin due to the Good Friday holiday. Meanwhile, hawkish remarks from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers provide some support to the Euro (EUR) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday that the central bank’s next interest rate move will very likely be an increase, although it is still ‌too early to say when it will start hiking. 

On the other hand, escalations in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven demand, supporting the JPY. US President Donald Trump pressures Iran to make a deal after a military strike destroys a bridge near Tehran. Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Washington’s recent strikes on civilian infrastructure will not force the country to back down, adding that such actions “convey the defeat and moral collapse of an enemy in disarray.”

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, the near-term bias of EUR/JPY is mildly bullish as price holds above the rising 100-day exponential moving average near 182.10 and consolidates just under the upper Bollinger Band, indicating sustained upside pressure after the recent advance. The Bollinger middle band around 183.50 now tracks below spot and acts as dynamic trend support, while the latest RSI reading just above 54 confirms positive, but not overextended, momentum consistent with a grinding uptrend rather than a climax move.

Immediate support emerges at the 183.50 Bollinger middle band, followed by the 182.50–182.10 area where recent lows converge with the 100-day EMA. A break below this zone would weaken the bullish structure and expose deeper retracement toward 181.50. On the topside, initial resistance stands at the recent upper Bollinger Band region around 184.80, with a daily close above this threshold opening the door toward the 186.00 area where prior band highs cluster and upside risk would intensify.

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GBP/USD Rebounds toward 1.3250 near nine-day EMA

  • GBP/USD may fall toward the descending channel’s lower boundary around 1.3150.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index hovers in the low-40s, indicating weak and negative momentum.
  • The pair may find the primary resistance at the nine-day EMA of 1.3273.

GBP/USD holds gains after registering over 0.5% losses in the previous day, trading around 1.3230 during the Asian hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates an ongoing bearish bias, as the pair remains within the descending channel pattern.

The near-term bias stays mildly bearish as the GBP/USD pair holds below both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which cap rebounds and confirm a deteriorating short-term trend. Price action has made a sequence of lower highs and lower closes from the 1.35 area, reinforcing downside pressure.

Additionally, the latest 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the low-40s, showing negative momentum but not yet oversold, which leaves room for further weakness while limiting the risk of an immediate exhaustion low.

The GBP/USD pair may find its primary support at the descending channel’s lower boundary around 1.3150. A break below the channel would expose the 1.3010, the lowest since April 2025, which was recorded in November 2025.

On the upside, the initial barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.3273. Further advances would lead the GBP/USD pair to test the 50-day EMA at 1.3394, followed by the upper descending channel boundary around 1.3440. A sustained break above this confluence resistance would trigger a bullish bias, opening the doors for exploring the area around the 1.3869, the highest level since September 2021, reached on January 27.

GBP/USD: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.00%-0.11%0.00%0.00%-0.13%0.10%-0.05%
EUR0.00%-0.07%0.02%0.00%-0.01%0.09%-0.05%
GBP0.11%0.07%0.11%0.08%0.08%0.17%0.02%
JPY0.00%-0.02%-0.11%-0.01%-0.03%0.07%-0.09%
CAD-0.01%-0.01%-0.08%0.00%-0.01%0.09%-0.06%
AUD0.13%0.01%-0.08%0.03%0.01%0.09%-0.06%
NZD-0.10%-0.09%-0.17%-0.07%-0.09%-0.09%-0.15%
CHF0.05%0.05%-0.02%0.09%0.06%0.06%0.15%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).