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AUD/USD Rally pauses as RSI (14) struggles to extend above 60.00

  • AUD/USD corrects to near 0.7065 after a four-day winning streak.
  • Investors await the outcome of US-Iran ceasefire talks in Pakistan.
  • The US headline CPI is expected to have risen at a faster pace of 3.3% YoY in March.

The AUD/USD pair is down 0.23% to near 0.7065 in the late Asian trading session, struggling to extend its winning streak for the fifth trading day on Friday. The Aussie pair comes under pressure as the Australian Dollar (AUD) underperforms amid uncertainty surrounding the first round of talks between the United States (US) and Iran in Pakistan over the weekend regarding the permanent ceasefire.

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.09%0.15%0.16%0.08%0.23%0.25%0.02%
EUR-0.09%0.05%0.09%-0.03%0.12%0.16%-0.08%
GBP-0.15%-0.05%0.04%-0.06%0.09%0.11%-0.14%
JPY-0.16%-0.09%-0.04%-0.09%0.07%0.04%-0.18%
CAD-0.08%0.03%0.06%0.09%0.13%0.16%-0.07%
AUD-0.23%-0.12%-0.09%-0.07%-0.13%0.02%-0.22%
NZD-0.25%-0.16%-0.11%-0.04%-0.16%-0.02%-0.24%
CHF-0.02%0.08%0.14%0.18%0.07%0.22%0.24%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

Market participants doubt that US-Iran talks will go on smoothly amid continued military attacks in Lebanon between Iran-backed Houthis and the Israeli army.

Israeli Prime Minister (PM) Benjamin Netanyahuย has pushed back hopes of a ceasefire in Lebanon, stating thatย Tel Aviv would continue โ€œto strike Hezbollah with full forceโ€ as the countryโ€™s military launched fresh strikes.

On Thursday, Israeli PM Netanyahu stated, through a tweet on X, that he is open to direct negotiations with Lebanon after repeated requests from the nation.

On the macro front, investors await the USย Consumer Price Indexย (CPI) data for March, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The US headline inflation is expected to arrive significantly higher at 3.3% from 2.4% in February.

AUD/USD technical analysis

AUD/USDย trades lower at around 0.7065 as of writing. However, the pair maintains a constructive bullish bias as spot holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6989. The pair has rebounded from last monthโ€™s lows and is stabilizing near recent highs.

However, the price needs a fresh trigger to extend its upside, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggling to break into the 60.00s zone.

On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-day EMA at 0.6989, which reinforces the short-term bullish structure as long as it holds on closing bases. A daily close below this dynamic floor would signal fading upward momentum and expose a deeper correction towards the April 7 low around 0.6900.

Looking up, the April 9 high around 0.7100 is the immediate resistance; a decisive break above the same would allow the price to extend its rebound towards the March high at 0.7187.

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AUD declines due to fading optimism surrounding US-Iran ceasefire

  • AUD/USD weakens as the Australian Dollar struggles amid fading optimism, with the Iran 10-point deal lacking full commitment.
  • Markets now expect an RBA rate hike in May, with rates projected to reach 4.61% by year-end.
  • Iran says recent actions violate the ceasefire, calling further talks with the US unreasonable.

AUD/USDย snaps a three-day winning streak, trading near 0.7030 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The risk-sensitive pair weakens as the Australian Dollar (AUD) comes under pressure amid fading optimism, with reports suggesting the 10-point framework lacks full commitment from both sides, leaving the deal fragile and incomplete.

However, the Middle East conflict, now in its second month, has lifted energy prices and heightened inflation risks, reinforcing expectations that global central banks may keep policy tighter for longer.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has already raisedย ratesย by 50 basis points to 4.10% amid persistently high inflation. Markets now anticipate another hike in May, with rates seen reaching 4.61% by year-end.

According to Reuters, Iranian officials said recent developments violate the terms of the less-than-day-old ceasefire, calling it โ€œunreasonableโ€ to proceed with talks for a permanent agreement with the United States (US).

The warning from Iranโ€™s lead negotiator and parliament speaker, Mohammed Bager Qalibaf, underscores ongoing regional volatility. Iranโ€™sย Islamicย Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also claimed that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz had halted after Israel expanded strikes in Lebanon.

Traders await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for March, due Friday. Headline inflation is expected to rise 3.3% year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.4%, driven by higher oil prices amid the Middle East conflict.

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War-Related Shifts in The Forex Market – USD Plumets, AUD, NDZ and CHF Rebound

The two-week suspension of U.S. military operations against Iran triggered a sharp shake-up in the FX market today, reversing much of the movement seen in recent weeks. Across a broad range of currencies, cyclical currencies are the most actively bought, with the NZD, SEK, and ZAR leading the way, while the USD and CAD are at the very bottom of the strength rankings. Pairs such as NZDUSD, AUDUSD, and GBPUSD are rebounding sharply, benefiting from the simultaneous rise in U.S. index futures and the steep sell-off in oil following the largest one-day drop in crude prices in years. The dollar index is sliding by about 0.9%, which, amid a sharp rebound in risk appetite on the stock markets, is weakening demand for safe-haven assets and pushing defensive positions in the USDโ€”and to some extent in the JPYโ€”to the sidelines.

Todayโ€™s reaction follows the pattern seen in recent weeks, in which shifts in the intensity of the conflict with Iran quickly translate into movements among the dollar, the yen, oil, and gold, increasing volatility in major currency pairs. Above is a heatmap of volatility in the FX market. Source: xStation

However, the biggest beneficiary of todayโ€™s combination of a hawkish central bank and global de-escalation remains the kiwi: following the RBNZโ€™s decision, NZD/USD rose temporarily by as much as 2% to around 0.5844, and is currently holding gains of around 1.7% at an exchange rate of approximately 0.5824. Investors interpreted the bankโ€™s statement as a โ€œhawkish pauseโ€โ€”the RBNZ clearly signaled its readiness for rapid rate hikes if inflation spreads beyond the energy sector and begins to affect wages and price expectations. At the same time, the bank emphasized that the supply shock linked to the earlier rise in oil prices is temporary, and that weaker domestic demand and rising spare capacity limit the risk of a second round of inflation. In this environment, the NZD benefits in two waysโ€”as a currency with a relatively high interest rate premium and as a classic representative of the risk-on basket, which is now returning to favor following the suspension of U.S.-Iran hostilities. If the window for peace talks in Islamabad does not close too abruptly, the NZDโ€™s current edge over the USD may hold, though ongoing instability in the region and the risk of a sudden escalation still call for caution when extending positions. 

The NZDUSD pair tested an important long-term control point marked by the 200-day EMA today. The retest has so far proved unsuccessful.

Source: xStation

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AUD/JPY Gains momentum, bullish bias prevails above 100-day EMA

  • AUD/JPY strengthens to near 111.80 in Wednesdayโ€™s Asian session.ย 
  • The cross maintains the constructive outlook above the 100-day EMA, with bullish RSI momentum.ย 
  • The initial support level is located at 111.00; the first upside barrier emerges at 112.50.ย ย 

The AUD/JPY cross gathers strength to around 111.80 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid improved risk sentiment. US President Donald Trump said late Tuesday that he had agreed “to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeksโ€ on the condition that Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi stated that during the two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz โ€œwill be possible via coordination with Iranโ€™s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.โ€ Easing tensions in the Middle East undermines a safe-haven currency such as the JPY and acts as a tailwind for the cross in the near term. 

On the other hand, fears that Japanese authorities would step in to support the domestic currency might cap the downside for the JPY. Japan’s top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said last week that officials may need to take “decisive” steps if speculative moves persist in the currency market.

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, the near-term bias of AUD/JPY is bullish as price extends its advance well above the 100-day exponential moving average around 107.50, confirming a dominant uptrend and resilient dip demand. The latest candles hold in the upper half of the Bollinger Band envelope, while the bands remain relatively wide, signalling sustained upside momentum rather than a volatility blow-off. RSI has rebounded toward the high-50s, recovering from mid-range readings and aligning with renewed buying pressure after the recent consolidation above the 111.00 handle.

Initial support emerges at 111.00, where recent lows converge with the mid-Bollinger zone, and a break below would expose deeper pullback risk toward the 110.00 area. Stronger downside protection aligns near the 109.00 region, close to the Bollinger lower band cluster and prior congestion, and a loss of this floor would weaken the broader bullish structure. On the topside, immediate resistance stands at the March 19 high of 112.61, followed by the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band of 113.15. 

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Trade of The Day – GBP/AUD

Facts:
The price bounced off the upper limit of 1:1 structure at 1.9255
GBPAUD sits below the 100-period moving average form H4 interval

Recommendation: 
Trade: Short position on GBPAUD at market price
Target: 1.8765, 1.8518
Stop: 1.9475

Opinion: Looking at the GBPAUD chart at the H4 interval, one can see that the price bounced off the key resistance today. The price bounced off the resistance marked with the upper limit of 1:1 structure at 1.9255. According to the Overbalance strategy, as long as the price sits below the aforementioned resistance, the main trend remains downward. In addition the price sits below the 100-period moving average from the H4 interval which also confirms the bearish scenario.  We recommend going short GBPAUD at market price with two targets: 1.8765 and 1.8518. We also recommend placing a stop loss order at 1.9475 Source: xStation5

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AUD/USD Wobbles around 0.6900 ahead of Iranโ€™s response to Trumpโ€™s ultimatum

  • AUD/USD trades with caution around 0.6900 ahead of Trumpโ€™s Iran deadline.
  • US President Trump threatened to destroy Iranโ€™s civilian infrastructure if it doesnโ€™t reopen the Hormuz.
  • Investors await the US FOMC minutes and the CPI data.

The AUD/USD pair trades in a tight range around 0.6900 during the early European trading session on Tuesday. The Aussie pair consolidates as investors await Tehranโ€™s response to United States (US) President Donald Trumpโ€™s warning to destroy Iranian power plants and bridges if it doesnโ€™t reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday, 08:00 PM ET.

Market sentiment remains cautious, with the S&P 500 futures trading 0.5% down during the press time. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenbackโ€™s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher around 100.10.

Ahead of the deadline, statements from Iranian officials indicate that the nation is unlikely to reopen the Hormuz, a scenario that could mark an escalation in the ongoing war. An advisor to Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that โ€œTrump has about 20 hours to either surrender to Iran, or his allies will return to the Paleolithic Ageโ€.

On the domestic front, investors await the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the March policy meeting, which will be released on Wednesday. This week, the major highlight will be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which is scheduled for Friday.

AUD/USD technical analysis

AUD/USD trades cautiously at around 0.6910 as of writing. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as spot holds below the 20-day exponential moving average, which has started to roll over and cap bounces in the 0.6960 area. Price action shows a sequence of lower closes from the 0.71 region, while the RSI has slipped below the 50 line and stabilizes in the low-40s, confirming building downside momentum rather than oversold conditions.

Initial resistance emerges at the 20-day EMA near 0.6960, with a break above exposing the March 23 high around 0.7060 as the next barrier. On the downside, immediate support stands at 0.6880, guarding the recent trough at 0.6835. A daily close below 0.6835 would extend the bearish phase toward the 0.6800 handle, while recovery above 0.6960 would ease selling pressure and open a corrective phase within the broader range.

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AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Gains ground above 110.00 as mild bullish bias persists

  • AUD/JPY drifts higher to around 110.20 in Mondayโ€™s Asian session.ย 
  • The cross keeps a mildly bullish vibe, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out amid neutral RSI momentum.ย 
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 111.25; initial support is located at 110.00.ย ย 

The AUD/JPY cross attracts some buyers to near 110.20 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on expectations of further interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). 

However, the upside for the cross might be limited as escalating tensions in the Middle East could boost safe-haven demand for the JPY. Iranโ€™s central military command on Monday warned of far more โ€œdevastating and widespreadโ€ retaliation if its adversaries hit civilian targets. The statement came after US President Donald Trump threatened to destroy Iranโ€™s power plants and bridges if Tehran didnโ€™t make a deal to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, the near-term bias of AUD/JPY is mildly bullish as price holds above the rising 100-day exponential moving average near 107.35, extending the broader uptrend despite the latest pullback. The RSI eases to the midline, suggesting that further consolidation cannot be ruled out in the near term. 

Immediate resistance emerges near the Bollinger middle band of 111.25. Above that, the next upside reference aligns near the March 19 high of 112.61, en route to the upper Bollinger Band of 113.65. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 110.00 psychological level. A deeper setback would target the lower limit of the Bollinger Band near 108.75, followed by the 100-day EMA around 107.35. 

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AUD/USD Price Forecast: Tests nine-day EMA after breaking above 0.6900

  • AUD/USD may find the initial support at the 11-week low of 0.6833.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index hovers near 43, suggesting mild bullish pressure.
  • The pair tests the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 0.6918.

AUD/USDย holds gains after two days of losses, trading around 0.6910 during the Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair remains within a descending wedge pattern, suggesting that selling pressure is gradually weakening as lower highs and lower lows converge. This structure often reflects a loss of bearish momentum, increasing the likelihood of a bullish breakout.

However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 43, suggesting a bearish bias, with momentum slipping below the midline after failing to sustain earlier strength. Moreover, the near-term bias is bearish as the AUD/USD pair holds below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the flatter 50-day EMA.

The initial support lies at the 11-week low of 0.6833, which was recorded on March 30, followed by the lower boundary of the descending wedge around 0.6810. A break below the wedge would strengthen the bearish bias and open the doors for the AUD/USD pair to navigate the region around a deeper 0.6400 rebound support zone.

The AUD/USD pair could find the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 0.6918, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6958 around the upper boundary of the wedge. A sustained break above this confluence resistance zone would lead the pair to test the 0.7187, the highest since June 2022, reached on March 11.

AUD/USD: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.02%-0.09%-0.05%-0.05%-0.15%-0.14%0.09%
EUR0.02%-0.04%-0.06%0.00%-0.14%-0.14%0.09%
GBP0.09%0.04%-0.02%-0.00%-0.09%-0.10%0.16%
JPY0.05%0.06%0.02%0.02%-0.11%-0.11%0.13%
CAD0.05%-0.00%0.00%-0.02%-0.10%-0.10%0.14%
AUD0.15%0.14%0.09%0.11%0.10%-0.01%0.24%
NZD0.14%0.14%0.10%0.11%0.10%0.01%0.26%
CHF-0.09%-0.09%-0.16%-0.13%-0.14%-0.24%-0.26%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).