The pound traded slightly above $1.35, retreating from last week’s two-month high of $1.366, as investors turned their attention to Britain’s municipal elections on Thursday, with polls indicating Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party could suffer a notable setback. Meanwhile, oil prices remained near four-year highs amid ongoing Middle East tensions, with the US and Iran locked in a dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are pricing in nearly three quarter-point rate hikes from the Bank of England this year. Yet, uncertainty persists after the BoE kept rates unchanged, citing the broad economic fallout from the Iran conflict. Governor Andrew Bailey called the decision a “difficult judgement call,” cautioning that delaying action until inflationary pressures are evident could lead to a late response.
GBP remains on the back foot against firmer USD amid Mideast crisis
- GBP/USD attracts some sellers for the third straight day as renewed US-Iran tensions benefit the USD.
- Rising Oil prices fuel inflationary concerns and temper Fed rate cut bets, further underpinning the buck.
- The BoE’s more hawkish outlook could offer some support to the GBP and help limit losses for the pair.
The GBP/USD pair trades with a negative bias for the third straight day on Tuesday, though it lacks follow-through selling and holds above the 1.3500 psychological mark during the Asian session. Moreover, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before positioning for an extension of the recent pullback from the 1.3655-1.3660 area, the highest level since February 16, touched last Friday.
The US Dollar (USD) attracts safe-haven flows amid the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz and diminishing odds for a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026. A firmer USD, in turn, is seen as a key factor exerting some pressure on the GBP/USD pair. However, the Bank of England’s (BoE) relatively more hawkish stance acts as a tailwind for the British Pound (GBP) and helps limit the downside for spot prices.
In the latest developments, Reuters reported that there was a fire and an explosion on a South Korean-flagged vessel in the strait. US President Donald Trump warned that Iran would be blown off the face of the earth if it attacks American vessels. Meanwhile, Iran attacked the United Arab Emirates (UAE) with a barrage of missiles and drones after the US announced a program called Project Freedom to guide ships stranded in the Gulf.
This raises the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East and triggers a fresh leg up in Crude Oil prices, fueling inflationary concerns and bets for more hawkish central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The outlook further underpins the USD and weighs on the GBP/USD pair. Meanwhile, the BoE signaled that rate hikes could be appropriate if inflation remains persistent, which should support spot prices.
Traders now look forward to Tuesday’s US economic docket – featuring the release of US ISM Services PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, and New Home Sales data. This, along with speeches from influential FOMC members, might provide some impetus to the buck and the GBP/USD pair. The focus, however, remains glued to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday and geopolitical headlines, which might continue to infuse volatility.
GBP/JPY stabilizes below 213.00 after suspected JPY intervention-led intraday volatility
- GBP/JPY attracts heavy intraday selling on Monday amid suspected Yen intervention.
- Economic concerns stemming from Middle East tensions cap the upside for the JPY.
- The BoE’s hawkish outlook lends support to the GBP and also limits losses for the cross.
The GBP/JPY cross seems to have stabilized following good two-way price swings earlier this Monday and trades just below the 213.00 mark during the first half of the European session.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) gets a strong boost at the start of a new week amid speculations that authorities again intervened in the FX market to prop up the weak domestic currency. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor behind the GBP/JPY pair’s intraday decline of nearly 200 pips from levels just above mid-216.00s. However, economic concerns stemming from the Middle East crisis and the continued disruption of energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz hold back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump announced a new initiative to guide ships stranded in the Gulf under a program called “Project Freedom”. The immediate market reaction, however, remains muted as top Iranian lawmaker Ebrahim Azizi said that any US interference in the strategic waterway will be considered a violation of the ceasefire. This, along with the lack of progress in US-Iran peace talks, keeps geopolitical risks in play and remains supportive of elevated Crude Oil prices, capping gains for the JPY.
The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, draws support from the Bank of England’s (BoE) hawkish outlook, suggesting that rate hikes could be appropriate if inflation remains persistent. This turns out to be another factor that contributes to limiting the downside for the GBP/JPY cross. From a technical perspective, the intraday fall stalled near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), further warranting caution before positioning for an extension of last week’s sharp pullback from the highest level since January 2008.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.01% | 0.11% | -0.08% | 0.10% | 0.08% | -0.01% | 0.13% | |
| EUR | 0.00% | 0.08% | -0.07% | 0.10% | 0.10% | -0.00% | 0.12% | |
| GBP | -0.11% | -0.08% | -0.17% | 0.01% | 0.02% | -0.09% | 0.06% | |
| JPY | 0.08% | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.14% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.14% | |
| CAD | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.01% | -0.14% | -0.04% | -0.14% | 0.03% | |
| AUD | -0.08% | -0.10% | -0.02% | -0.10% | 0.04% | -0.13% | 0.04% | |
| NZD | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.09% | -0.01% | 0.14% | 0.13% | 0.15% | |
| CHF | -0.13% | -0.12% | -0.06% | -0.14% | -0.03% | -0.04% | -0.15% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
EUR/GBP Price Forecasts: Euro remains vulnerable below 0.8640
- EUR/GBP recovery attempt from 0.8620 lows remains limited below 0.8640.
- The Pound is outperforming the Euro, with risk appetite subdued.
- Euro bears remain in control, with the 2026 low near 0.8610 at a short distance.
The Euro (EUR) opens the week on a soft note against the British Pound (GBP). The pair shows moderate losses, as Friday’s upside attempt from the 0.8620 lows failed to find acceptance above a previous support area at 0.8640, which leaves the year-to-date low, at 0.8611, exposed
The Pound shows a slightly better performance than the Euro on a cautious start to the week, with all eyes on the Strait of Hormuz, after US President Donald Trump flagged a military operation to free vessels of neutral nations stranded in the critical waterway, but without providing further details.
The UK economic calendar is thin on Monday. In Europe, April’s final HCOB Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is expected to confirm a moderate expansion in the sector’s activity, while the Sentix Index will provide details about investors’ confidence ahead of speeches by some European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers.
Technical Analysis: Previous support at 0.8640 is holding bulls
EUR/GBP remains stalled below the confluence of a reverse trendline from late March highs and the area between 0.8630 and 0.8640, which supported bears on March 23, 24, and 26.
Technical indicators in 4-hour charts are in bearish territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 38 signals weak demand rather than oversold stress, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram fluctuates around the zero line, hinting at sluggish momentum.
Failure to extend recovery past 0.8640 leaves the 2026 low, at 0.8611 (March 19 low), on the bears’ focus. Further down, the next target is the August 2025 low, at 0.8596. On the upside, a confirmation above 0.8640 would shift the focus towards the April 27 and 28 lows, around 0.8655, and the April 24 high, near 0.8685.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.06% | -0.01% | -0.09% | 0.06% | 0.07% | -0.13% | -0.05% | |
| EUR | 0.06% | 0.01% | -0.04% | 0.12% | 0.14% | -0.06% | -0.01% | |
| GBP | 0.00% | -0.01% | -0.06% | 0.11% | 0.12% | -0.11% | -0.01% | |
| JPY | 0.09% | 0.04% | 0.06% | 0.12% | 0.11% | -0.10% | -0.02% | |
| CAD | -0.06% | -0.12% | -0.11% | -0.12% | -0.01% | -0.22% | -0.12% | |
| AUD | -0.07% | -0.14% | -0.12% | -0.11% | 0.00% | -0.24% | -0.14% | |
| NZD | 0.13% | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.10% | 0.22% | 0.24% | 0.09% | |
| CHF | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.12% | 0.14% | -0.09% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Pound Sterling advances on BoE hawkish hold while Hormuz tensions cap gains
- GBP/USD gains ground to near 1.3600 in Monday’s early European session.
- The BoE maintained the interest rate at 3.75% last week but delivered a hawkish hold.
- An Iranian official warned that Trump’s Hormuz mission will violate the ceasefire.
The GBP/USD pair gathers strength around 1.3600 during the early European session on Monday. Signals from the Bank of England (BoE) that suggest a potential shift toward higher interest rates later this year underpin the Pound Sterling (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD). The US employment report for April will be in the spotlight later on Friday.
The UK central bank held the bank rate steady at 3.75% as widely expected, presenting a scenario framework that suggests rate hikes could be appropriate but avoiding any pre-commitment. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey warned of “forceful tightening” if energy price shocks from the Middle East conflict continue to drive inflation.
Nonetheless, uncertainty in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz could support the Greenback and act as a headwind for the major pair. US President Donald Trump said the US will begin guiding some neutral ships trapped in the Persian Gulf out through the Strait of Hormuz beginning Monday. Top Iranian lawmaker Ebrahim Azizi said that any US interference in the Strait will be considered a violation of the ceasefire.
Traders brace for the US employment report for April later on Friday. The US economy is estimated to see 73K job additions in April, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 4.3% during the same period. Any signs of weakening in the US labor market could weigh on the USD against the GBP.
GBP edges higher despite Middle East uncertainty
- GBP/USD edges higher to around 1.3580 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the Middle East.
- The BoE and the Fed left the interest rates unchanged at the April policy meeting last week.
The GBP/USD pair posts modest gains near 1.3580 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. Nonetheless, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited amid Middle East uncertainty. The US employment report for April will take center stage later on Friday.
Markets could turn cautious after US President Donald Trump said the US would start an effort on Monday morning to free ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz as a “humanitarian gesture” to aid neutral countries in the US-Israeli war with Iran. An Iranian official warned that US interference in Hormuz will be considered a violation of the ceasefire, adding that the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf are not a place for rhetoric.
Iran earlier claimed that the US had reacted to its 14-point plan through Pakistan, and it was reviewing the response, though Trump said it was unlikely to be acceptable. Signs of rising tensions in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) and create a headwind for the major pair.
Last week, both the Bank of England (BoE) and the US Federal Reserve maintained current interest rates. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said if price pressures triggered by the conflict proved to be severe, a “forceful tightening” would be required. Bailey played down fears of near-term rate hikes but added that “we’ll continue to monitor the situation and its impact on the UK economy very closely.”
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Buyers defend 100-day SMA as momentum weakens
- GBP/JPY rebounds modestly after earlier sell-off likely triggered by suspected intervention by Japanese authorities.
- Technically, the cross holds a bullish bias above key moving averages, though weakening momentum signals fading upside strength.
- The 100-day SMA offers immediate support, while 213.50 acts as the first upside hurdle.
GBP/JPY stages a modest rebound on Friday after coming under selling pressure earlier in the day amid suspected intervention by Tokyo for a second straight day to curb excessive weakness in the Japanese Yen (JPY). At the time of writing, the cross is trading around 213.42, recovering from an intraday low of 211.81 and poised to end the week in negative territory for the first time in four weeks.
However, there has been no official confirmation of intervention by Japanese authorities so far, though officials issued a “final” warning on Thursday after USD/JPY briefly moved past the 160 level, a threshold that has previously triggered action. This move spilled across Yen crosses, with GBP/JPY posting a sharp pullback from a multi-year high near 216.60 to around 210.45 the previous day.
Although underlying fundamentals, including wide interest rate differentials between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and other major central banks, continue to weigh on the Yen, the latest leg lower suggests near-term downside pressure on the cross as momentum indicators turn negative.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, GBP/JPY holds a constructive bias while consolidating above its key trend filters. The 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 200-day SMA sit comfortably below the spot, suggesting underlying demand despite the recent pullback.
However, momentum has cooled, with the Relative Strength Index easing toward the mid-40s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slipping into negative territory, hinting that upside attempts may lack follow-through in the very near term.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the horizontal barrier near 214.50, where a daily close above would reopen the path toward the recent peak of 216.60 and signal renewed bullish impulse.
On the downside, initial support is provided by the 100-day SMA at 211.89, with a break there exposing deeper retracement toward the 200-day SMA at 206.74, where buyers would be expected to defend the broader uptrend.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.19% | -0.14% | 0.02% | -0.19% | -0.06% | 0.12% | -0.11% | |
| EUR | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.18% | -0.01% | 0.15% | 0.30% | 0.08% | |
| GBP | 0.14% | -0.04% | 0.15% | -0.04% | 0.09% | 0.26% | 0.06% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | -0.18% | -0.15% | -0.20% | -0.08% | 0.07% | -0.12% | |
| CAD | 0.19% | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.20% | 0.12% | 0.29% | 0.10% | |
| AUD | 0.06% | -0.15% | -0.09% | 0.08% | -0.12% | 0.16% | -0.02% | |
| NZD | -0.12% | -0.30% | -0.26% | -0.07% | -0.29% | -0.16% | -0.20% | |
| CHF | 0.11% | -0.08% | -0.06% | 0.12% | -0.10% | 0.02% | 0.20% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Pound Sterling edges down, remains broadly firm amid hawkish BoE prospects
- The Pound Sterling ticks lower but is broadly upbeat amid expectations of a BoE interest rate hike in the near term.
- BoE’s Bailey calls for a possible interest rate hike to avoid second-round effects of inflation from emerging.
- The US Dollar trades with caution ahead of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for April.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) ticks lower against its major currency peers, trading marginally down to near 1.3590 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. However, the British currency is broadly upbeat amid the speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) will deliver an interest rate hike in upcoming policy meetings.
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.02% | 0.06% | -0.05% | -0.03% | 0.20% | 0.32% | -0.02% | |
| EUR | 0.02% | 0.07% | -0.04% | -0.03% | 0.22% | 0.32% | -0.01% | |
| GBP | -0.06% | -0.07% | -0.11% | -0.09% | 0.12% | 0.27% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | 0.05% | 0.04% | 0.11% | 0.00% | 0.23% | 0.32% | 0.02% | |
| CAD | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.09% | -0.01% | 0.22% | 0.34% | 0.03% | |
| AUD | -0.20% | -0.22% | -0.12% | -0.23% | -0.22% | 0.11% | -0.21% | |
| NZD | -0.32% | -0.32% | -0.27% | -0.32% | -0.34% | -0.11% | -0.31% | |
| CHF | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.06% | -0.02% | -0.03% | 0.21% | 0.31% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Hawkish BoE prospects are backed by remarks from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, in a press conference after the policy meeting on Thursday, pointing to hiking interest rates before elevated energy prices-driven inflation starts showing second-round effects.
“A prolonged spike in energy prices could lead to a higher bank rate,” BoE’s Bailey said, adding, “It would be a mistake to wait to see the second-round effects before acting because then it would be too late,” Reuters reported.
In the policy meeting, the BoE left interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, as expected, for the third meeting in a row. Out of the nine members-led Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill dissented from the decision to hold interest rates, and voted in favor of an interest rate hike.
The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March showed that the headline inflation accelerated to 3.3% Year-on-Year (YoY).
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades cautiously even as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to hold interest rates at their current levels for the entire year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in the current range of 3.50%-3.75% by the year end is 83.6%.
In Friday’s session, investors will focus on the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for April, which will be published at 14:00 GMT.
