GBP 4 - Currency Hedger

EUR/GBP fluctuates as energy-led Eurozone inflation contrasts with fragile UK growth

March 31, 2026

EUR/GBP trades choppy as traders assess Eurozone inflation and UK growth data.
Rising energy costs push Eurozone inflation above target, adding pressure on the ECB.
UK growth stays weak, limiting the scope for aggressive BoE tightening.

EUR/GBP trades in a choppy range on Tuesday, as traders digest the latest economic data from both the United Kingdom and the Eurozone. At the time of writing, the cross is trading around 0.8691, rebounding after marking an intraday low of 0.8676.

The latest Eurozone preliminary inflation data, the first since the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, showed early signs of the impact from rising energy prices, pushing inflation above the ECB’s 2% target.

Headline inflation showed a notable pickup, with the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rising by 1.2% MoM in March, accelerating from 0.6% in February. On an annual basis, inflation rose to 2.5% from 1.9%, coming in below expectations of 2.7%.

Core inflation, however, remained more contained. The Core HICP rose 0.8% MoM, unchanged from the previous month, while the annual rate eased slightly to 2.3%, coming in below both the 2.4% forecast and the prior reading.

The data strengthen the case that the European Central Bank (ECB) could consider raising rates in the coming months if Oil prices remain elevated. However, markets are scaling back expectations of any immediate rate hike that had been priced in earlier, as rising energy costs are also fueling concerns about an economic slowdown, particularly in the Eurozone given its heavy reliance on imported energy.

EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen warned that member states should prepare for a prolonged disruption to energy markets due to the Iran war, according to a letter sent to EU energy ministers.

ECB policymaker Madis Müller said on Tuesday that “the ECB must act if energy prices stay high for a long period,” adding that a rate hike in April “cannot be ruled out.”

In the United Kingdom, growth remained modest. GDP rose 0.1% QoQ in Q4, in line with expectations and unchanged from the preliminary estimate. On a yearly basis, the economy grew 1%, also matching forecasts.

Meanwhile, traders expect the Bank of England (BoE) to consider rate hikes to deal with oil-driven inflation. However, weak growth in the UK, reflected in the latest Q4 GDP data, points to a stagflationary environment, complicating the central bank’s policy outlook.

GBP/USD Price – Holds gains near 1.3200 despite persistent bearish bias

March 31, 2026

GBP/USD may retest support near 1.3150 at the lower boundary of the descending channel.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 38 signals fading downside momentum, but insufficient buying pressure.
The pair may climb toward resistance at the nine-day EMA of 1.3291.

GBP/USD halts its five-day losing streak, trading around 1.3200 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates an ongoing bearish bias, as the pair moves downwards within the descending channel pattern.

The near-term bias stays mildly bearish as the GBP/USD pair holds below both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which cap price action and frame a descending short-term profile.

Additionally, the latest 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 38 after recovering from oversold territory, indicating fading downside momentum but not yet enough buying pressure to challenge the dominant corrective phase from recent highs.

The GBP/USD pair may retest the immediate support at the descending channel’s lower boundary around 1.3150. A break below the channel would expose the 1.3010, the lowest since April 2025, which was recorded in November 2025.

On the upside, the GBP/USD pair may rise toward the primary barrier at the nine-day EMA of 1.3291. Further advances would lead the GBP/USD pair to test the 50-day EMA at 1.3412, followed by the upper descending channel boundary around 1.3460. A break above this confluence resistance would trigger a bullish bias, paving the way for the pair to test 1.3869, its highest level since September 2021, reached on January 27.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.03%	-0.08%	-0.05%	0.05%	0.12%	0.20%	-0.10%
EUR	0.03%		-0.04%	0.02%	0.13%	0.18%	0.26%	-0.03%
GBP	0.08%	0.04%		0.06%	0.18%	0.23%	0.30%	0.01%
JPY	0.05%	-0.02%	-0.06%		0.11%	0.16%	0.24%	-0.04%
CAD	-0.05%	-0.13%	-0.18%	-0.11%		0.06%	0.14%	-0.15%
AUD	-0.12%	-0.18%	-0.23%	-0.16%	-0.06%		0.09%	-0.21%
NZD	-0.20%	-0.26%	-0.30%	-0.24%	-0.14%	-0.09%		-0.30%
CHF	0.10%	0.03%	-0.01%	0.04%	0.15%	0.21%	0.30%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

GBP/USD dives to four-month lows as Middle East tensions lift the US Dollar

March 30, 2026

GBP/USD is weighed by Middle East tensions, with higher oil prices boosting haven demand.
Powell acknowledges policy tension as traders trim aggressive Fed tightening bets.
Weak UK data and energy vulnerability keep pressure on Sterling.

The British Pound (GBP) collapses on Monday as Middle East escalations push the US Dollar (USD) higher, while Oil prices extend their gains for the fourth consecutive trading day. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3184, down by more than 0.50%, hitting a four-month low.

Sterling sinks as oil rises, Fed bets ease, UK outlook dims ahead

Market mood has improved slightly as US President Donald Trump said that the current Iranian regime seems “reasonable.” However, he added that if Iran’s new regime doesn’t open the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict could escalate after the arrival of 3,500 troops to the Middle East.

In the meantime, fears that the Iran war could weigh on the economy pushed traders to trim hawkish bets and increase the chances for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) by the end of 2026.

Recently, Fed Chair Jerome Powell crossed the wires, acknowledging that there’s tension between the dual mandate’s goals. He said that the central bank is committed to getting inflation back to 2% on a “sustained basis,” adding that tariff-related inflation likely added 0.5% to 1% to inflation, but it’s likely a one-time effect.

Powell said that monetary policy is in a good place, that events in the Middle East affect gas prices, and added that long-term inflation expectations remain in check. Furthermore, commented that officials may need to respond to the impact of the conflict and that, if prices begin to shift inflation expectations, they would be ready to act.

In the UK, some economists see vulnerabilities due to Britain’s dependence on imported natural gas. Along with stubbornly high inflation above the Bank of England’s target, it paints a gloomy economic outlook, as downside risks for the economy rise.

Last week’s economic data revealed that British business activity hit a six-month low, manufacturers’ input costs rose at their fastest rate since 1992, and retail sales declined. Meanwhile, traders’ eyes are on the release of economic growth data, as they expect the UK’s Q4 2025 GDP to remain steady at 1%.

In the US, investors’ focus will be on the Consumer Confidence index and the Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February, as well as speeches by Fed officials.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3188. The near-term bias is bearish as spot holds well below the clustered simple moving averages around 1.3500, confirming a downside break from the prior range. Price has slipped through the rising support trend line drawn from 1.3035, turning the broader structure from supported to pressured. The downward-sloping resistance trend line from 1.3869 continues to cap bounces, while the rising Fed Sentiment Index highlights a supportive backdrop for the dollar that aligns with the current selling pressure in cable.

Immediate resistance appears near 1.3330, where recent swing highs converge with the descending trend line, followed by 1.3410 and 1.3435 as the next upside hurdles if a corrective rebound develops. On the downside, the latest low at 1.3188 is the first level to watch, with further weakness opening the way toward the psychological 1.3100 area and then 1.3035, where the prior trend-line origin sits as deeper support. As long as price remains beneath 1.3330 and the moving average cluster around 1.3500, rallies are likely to be sold rather than sustained.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.49%	0.55%	-0.53%	0.21%	0.29%	0.62%	0.13%
EUR	-0.49%		0.04%	-1.00%	-0.28%	-0.12%	0.13%	-0.36%
GBP	-0.55%	-0.04%		-1.07%	-0.33%	-0.21%	0.09%	-0.41%
JPY	0.53%	1.00%	1.07%		0.75%	0.85%	1.15%	0.66%
CAD	-0.21%	0.28%	0.33%	-0.75%		0.09%	0.35%	-0.09%
AUD	-0.29%	0.12%	0.21%	-0.85%	-0.09%		0.30%	-0.18%
NZD	-0.62%	-0.13%	-0.09%	-1.15%	-0.35%	-0.30%		-0.50%
CHF	-0.13%	0.36%	0.41%	-0.66%	0.09%	0.18%	0.50%

Sterling Nears 1% Monthly Drop on Middle East Jitters

March 30, 2026

The British pound drifted toward $1.32, lingering near its lowest since early December and on track for a monthly decline of over 1% against the US dollar. Risk aversion dominated markets as traders assessed the economic risks from the protracted Middle East conflict, with reports of US troop preparations for a potential ground operation overshadowing Washington’s claims of progress in Iran negotiations. Meanwhile, Bank of England policy expectations underwent a dramatic shift: markets now anticipate at least two rate hikes in 2026, with a possible third, reversing earlier bets on two cuts.

GBP/USD holds above 1.3300 as haven bids lift the US Dollar

March 27, 2026

GBP/USD clings to 1.3300 as haven demand keeps the US Dollar supported.
UK Retail Sales slump and BoE caution weigh on Sterling sentiment.
Markets now see both the Fed and BoE leaning further hawkish.

The British Pound (GBP) holds firm during the North American session on Friday, clings above the 1.3300 figure, yet seems poised to finish the week with 0.20% losses against the US Dollar (USD). Risk aversion due to an energy shock caused by the Middle East conflict and the haven appeal of the Greenback keep GBP/USD on its way to monthly losses of more than 1%.

Sterling eyes weekly loss as Oil, war worries sour sentiment anew

On Thursday, US President Donald Trump announced a delay in attacks on Iran’s energy facilities for 10 days, until April 6. Initially, the markets cheered the move as Oil prices fell. Nevertheless, WTI reversed the initial drop as traders faded the news.

Hence, sentiment remains dismal, with Wall Street posting losses and the Greenback poised to finish the week with gains of over 0.45%, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the buck’s performance versus six other currencies, is at 99.94, virtually unchanged for the day.

Adding to the sour mood was the fact that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) shut off the Strait of Hormuz.

Data from the US showed that American consumers had grown pessimistic about the economy, as the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dipped from 55.5 to 53.3, below forecasts of 54. Inflation expectations for the next twelve months jumped from 3.4% in February to 3.8%, while for the five years were unchanged at 3.2%.

In the UK, Retail Sales fell in February following January’s strong performance, coming in at -0.4% MoM, a collapse from the previous month’s 2% growth.

Aside from this, Bank of England’s Alan Taylor said the bar for hiking interest rates is quite high, revealing that holding rates is preferable until the central bank assesses the impact of Iran’s war on the economy.

Traders expect further tightening by central banks

This week, money markets had priced out the possibility of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Instead, they see the Fed raising rates by 5 basis points towards year-end. The BoE is projected to increase rates by 78 basis points, according to Prime Market Terminal data.

Fed interest rate probabilites – Source: Prime Market Terminal

(This story was corrected on March 27 at 16:25 GMT to say that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dipped to 53.3, not 53.5, that 5-year inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.2% and that UK Retail Sales for January came in at 2%, not 1.8%.)

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3311. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as spot holds below the clustered simple moving averages near 1.35 and remains capped by the descending resistance line from 1.3869, which has contained every rebound since the recent 1.38 area highs. Price slipping back inside the broad contracting formation between that downtrend line and the still-rising support line from 1.3035 signals fading upside momentum, while the latest downtick in the Fed Sentiment Index above 119.000 hints that relative policy expectations continue to favor the dollar at the margin.

Immediate resistance stands at the descending trend line currently intersecting just above 1.3400, followed by the 1.3500/1.3520 zone where the daily moving averages converge and prior swing highs cluster. A daily close above that confluence would weaken the bearish bias and expose the 1.3700 region, ahead of the 1.3869 high. On the downside, initial support emerges at 1.3220, the latest swing low, with further traction expected around 1.3100 aligned with the rising trend line from 1.3035. A break beneath that structural floor would confirm a deeper bearish extension toward the psychological 1.3000 handle.

EUR/GBP keeps hovering around 0.8650, unfazed by UK consumption data

March 27, 2026

The Euro remains practically flat around 0.8650, following UK Retail Sales data.
Markets pay little attention to February’s UK consumption figures, as they predate Iran’s war.
Inflation in Spain accelerated in March to its highest level since 2024.

The Euro (EUR) keeps trading sideways against the British Pound (GBP) on Friday, oscillating within a tight range around the 0.8650 level for the fourth consecutive day, on track for a 0.25% weekly decline. The stronger-than-expected UK Retail Sales figures released earlier on the day have failed to provide any significant support to the Sterling.

Data released by National Statistics earlier on Friday revealed that retail consumption fell for the first time in the last three months in February, by 0.4%, following a 2% increase in January. The market consensus had anticipated a sharper, 0.8% decline.

Excluding fuel, sales of all other items have shown a similar pattern, falling 0.4% on the month after a 2.2% gain in January, yet remaining above the -0.8% market consensus. Year on year, Retail Sales growth eased to 2.5%, from an upwardly revised 4.8% growth in the previous month, while the Core Retail Sales slowed down to 3.4% from 5.9% in January.

These figures have had a limited impact on the market as they predate the start of the war in Iran. Data from March, which will show the impact of a sharp decline in consumer confidence and a sharp uptick in prices due to the surge in Oil prices, is likely to have more relevance.

The Euro, on the other hand, remains on its back foot, also weighed by the pressure of higher Oil prices in the Eurozone economy. Spain’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 3.3% year-on-year in March, its highest level in 14 months, adding pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to hike interest rates in April.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Snaps three-day losing streak as market sentiment improves

March 27, 2026

GBP/USD rises to near 1.3345 as market sentiment turns favorable for riskier assets.
US President Trump extended the postponement of scheduled military action on Iran’s power plants.
Investors await UK Retail Sales data for February.

The GBP/USD pair snaps its three-day losing streak on Friday, trading 0.1% higher to near 1.3345 during the Asian trading session. The Cable rises as the market sentiment turns favorable for riskier assets, following United States (US) President Donald Trump’s extended pause on scheduled attacks on Iranian power plants until April 6, which boosts hopes of de-escalation in conflicts in the Middle East.

As of writing, S&P 500 futures trade 0.3% higher to near 6,500, indicating an improvement in investors’ risk appetite. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades flat near a three-day high of around 100.00.

Late Thursday, US President Trump said through a post on Truth.Social, “I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M., Eastern Time,” and expressed confidence that talks with Iran regarding an end to the Middle East war are going well.

In Friday’s session, investors will focus on the United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for February, which will be published at 07:00 GMT. Month-on-month Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, is estimated to have declined 0.8% after a 1.8% growth seen in January. On an annualized basis, the consumer spending measure is expected to have risen at a moderate pace of 2.1% against the previous reading of 4.5%.

GBP/USD technical analysis

GBP/USD trades higher at around1.3345 as of writing. The near-term bias is bearish as recent lower highs reinforce the downside tone. The spot trades close to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which has flattened after a prior decline and now caps the upside around 1.34.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 zone, signaling a pause in the bearish momentum, while the bearish bias remains intact.

Initial resistance emerges at the 20-day EMA near 1.3400, followed by the March 23 high around 1.3480, where recent supply halted rebounds. A daily close above that level would ease the bearish pressure and open the way toward the mid-1.35 region. On the downside, immediate support aligns with Monday’s low at 1.3257, with a break exposing the next bearish target at 1.3220. A drop through 1.3220 would confirm a stronger downward extension toward the 1.31 area.

EUR/GBP holds above 0.8650 as hawkish ECB comments support the Euro

March 26, 2026

The Euro regains ground against the Pound Sterling on Thursday, with the cross returning to the upper range of the 0.8600s.
EUR/GBP edges up following hawkish comments from ECB’s Nagel.
From a wider perspective, the cross remains sideways, with both currencies weighed by risk aversion.

The Euro (EUR) edges up slightly against the British Pound (GBP) on Thursday, yet moving within previous ranges, following downbeat German consumer confidence figures and hawkish comments by European Central Bank (ECB) member and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel.

Nagel said earlier on Thursday that an interest rate hike in April will be an option at next month’s ECB meeting “if the war in the Middle East raises the spectre of an inflation surge in the Eurozone”.

These comments follow Wednesday’s remarks by ECB President Christine Lagarde, who affirmed that the central bank will have to respond “in a forceful pr persistent way” if consumer inflation looks set to be well above the bank’s 2% target.

Higher borrowing costs might derail recovery

The prospect of higher interest rates amid sluggish economic growth in the region’s leading economies is keeping investors wary, weighing on demand for the common currency.

On Thursday, the German GfK Index showed that consumer confidence is expected to plunge to -28 in April from -24.8 in March. Data from Wednesday showed that the German IFO Business Climate deteriorated too, albeit less than expected, while the PMI survey underscored that the rise in energy prices could easily derail a tame economic recovery.

The Pound Sterling (GBP), however, is not faring much better, which keeps the cross in a choppy, sideways trading cycle. UK inflation data revealed that consumer prices remained at 3%, even before the start of the war, which has boosted market expectations that the Bank of England will be forced to hike rates more than once this year.