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GBP loses ground as US–Iran peace talks stall

  • GBP/USD remains in the negative territory due to stalled US–Iran peace talks.
  • US–Iran peace talks stalled after Trump canceled a Pakistan delegation for potential negotiations.
  • USD strengthens on safe-haven demand as Israel-Hezbollah clashes intensify despite a US-brokered ceasefire extension.

GBP/USD remains in the negative territory after trimming daily losses, trading around 1.3520 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair faced pressure as the risk-sensitive Pound Sterling (GBP) weakened amid stalled US–Iran peace talks.

US President Donald Trump called off that delegation to Pakistan to potentially discuss directly with Iran, Bloomberg reported on Sunday. “If they want to talk, they can come to us, or they can call us. You know, there is a telephone. We have nice, secure lines,” said Trump.

Trump on Saturday told Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff to skip the trip to Pakistan, which is mediating talks, saying that Iran “offered a lot, but not enough. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that his nation won’t enter “imposed negotiations under threats or blockade.”

CNN reported that President Trump was swiftly escorted off the stage by Secret Service after possible shots were fired at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner in Washington, DC, on Saturday. Vice President JD Vance and several members of Trump’s Cabinet, who were also in attendance, were also rushed out.

The US Dollar (USD) strengthened against major peers on safe-haven demand as the ceasefire comes under strain, with Israel and Hezbollah escalating attacks despite a US-brokered extension meant to halt fighting for three weeks.

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The Japanese Yen holds steady as BoJ and Fed rate decisions in focus

  • USD/JPY flat lines around 159.50 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
  • Markets expect the BoJ to leave interest rates unchanged on Tuesday. 
  • The FOMC is anticipated to maintain the federal funds rate between 3.50% and 3.75% at its April meeting on Wednesday.

The USD/JPY pair trades on a flat note near 159.50 during the early Asian session on Monday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the key interest rate decisions from both the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

Markets anticipate the Japanese central bank keeping interest rates steady at 0.75% on Tuesday. While a “hawkish hold” is possible, officials are balancing rising energy-driven inflation against economic uncertainty caused by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, intervention fears could provide some support to the JPY and act as a headwind for the pair. Japanese authorities, including Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, highlighted a “high sense of urgency” regarding speculative and weak-JPY moves driven by Middle East tensions. 

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to maintain the benchmark federal funds rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% range, marking the third consecutive meeting without a change. This meeting may be the final one for Jerome Powell, whose successor, Kevin Warsh, is nearing confirmation.

Traders will take more cues from the press conference on how policymakers are interpreting the impact of higher energy costs and whether this alters their longer-term outlook on interest rates. Any hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers could lift the Greenback against the Japanese Yen (JPY). 

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NZD/USD eyes 0.5900 on softer USD; bulls seem cautious as US-Iran tensions persist

  • NZD/USD turns positive for the second straight day on Monday amid a modest USD downtick.
  • Stalled US-Iran peace talks, Hormuz risks, and hawkish Fed bets could limit further USD losses.
  • Traders might also opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the FOMC policy meeting this week.

The NZD/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers at the start of a new week and builds on Friday’s bounce from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support near the 0.5840 area. Spot prices climb back closer to the 0.5900 mark during the Asian session amid a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick, though the upside seems capped on the back of geopolitical uncertainties.

A generally positive tone around the equity markets is seen undermining the safe-haven Greenback and turning out to be a key factor offering some support to the NZD/USD pair for the second consecutive day. Any meaningful USD depreciation, however, seems elusive in the wake of stalled US-Iran peace talks. In fact, US President Donald Trump cancelled envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner’s trip to Pakistan aimed at advancing Iran war negotiations.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he has ordered the military to vigorously attack Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. This comes on top of the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz and continued supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, which revives inflationary concerns and hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. This, in turn, should limit deeper USD losses and keep a lid on further gains for the NZD/USD pair.

Traders might also opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday, which will influence the USD price dynamics and provide a fresh impetus. In the meantime, bets that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may maintain a cautious policy stance or consider tightening to bring inflation back to the 2% midpoint amid persistent sticky inflation might hold back bearish traders from placing aggressive bets around the NZD/USD pair.

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The CAD advances as oil prices gain on stalled US–Iran peace talks

  • USD/CAD falls as the Canadian Dollar gains support from higher oil prices.
  • WTI rises after Trump canceled Pakistan talks delegation, heightening supply concerns.
  • Israel-Hezbollah clashes intensify despite a US-brokered ceasefire extension.

USD/CAD remains subdued for the second successive day, trading around 1.3660 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair loses ground as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from higher oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price receives support after registering 2.4% losses in the previous day, trading around $94.00 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude oil prices advance on rising supply concerns amid stalled US–Iran peace talks. US President Donald Trump called off that delegation to Pakistan to potentially discuss directly with Iran.

President Trump on Saturday told Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff to skip the trip to Pakistan, which is mediating talks, saying that Iran “offered a lot, but not enough. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that his nation won’t enter “imposed negotiations under threats or blockade.”

Meanwhile, traffic through the strategic waterway remains largely restricted due to Iran’s controls and the US naval blockade, heightening fears of prolonged disruptions and providing further support to crude oil prices.

The USD/CAD pair is also subdued as the US Dollar (USD) extends its losses for the second successive day despite increased safe-haven demand as the ceasefire comes under strain, with Israel and Hezbollah escalating attacks despite a US-brokered extension meant to halt fighting for three weeks.

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AUD/USD Advances to 0.7170 as bulls await range breakout on softer USD

  • AUD/USD attracts some dip-buyers on Monday amid a modest US Dollar weakness.
  • The RBA’s hawkish stance counters US-Iran tensions and offers support to the Aussie.
  • The technical setup favors bulls as the market focus shifts to the key FOMC meeting.

The AUD/USD pair turns positive for the second consecutive day following a modest dip on Monday and climbs to a three-day high, around the 0.7170 region during the Asian session. Spot prices, however, remain confined within a familiar range that has been held over the past two weeks or so, warranting some caution for bullish traders.

Despite stalled US-Iran peace talks and a standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to lure buyers and remains on the defensive as bulls seem reluctant ahead of the crucial FOMC meeting this week. Moreover, a generally positive risk tone is seen undermining the Greenback’s safe-haven demand and acting as a tailwind for the AUD/USD pair amid the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish stance.

From a technical perspective, the recent range-bound price action might be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase against the backdrop of a rally from the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), touched in March. Furthermore, positive momentum studies maintain a constructive outlook for the AUD/USD pair, suggesting that the path of least resistance remains to the upside and backing the case for an eventual bullish breakout.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above 60 without yet signaling overbought conditions and points to sustained upside pressure. Also, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains in a positive zone, indicating that the recent advance is broadly backed by upward momentum. However, a move above the 0.7185-0.7190 area, or the trading range hurdle, is needed to reaffirm the constructive outlook.

On the flip side, any corrective pullback could be seen as a buying opportunity and continue to find decent support ahead of the 0.7100 mark. A convincing break below the said handle, along with any loss of momentum in the indicators, would warn of a corrective phase within the broader bullish structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

AUD/USD daily chart

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EUR/USD Price Bounces back to near 1.1730 as 20-day EMA remains supportive

  • EUR/USD turns positive around 1.1730 as the US Dollar gives back early gains.
  • Iran prepares to reopen the Hormuz if the US lifts the blockade on Iranian sea ports.
  • Investors await the Fed-ECB monetary policy announcements.

The EUR/USD pair claws back its early losses and turns positive around 1.1730 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The major currency pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) turns upside down.

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.06% lower to near 98.45. The USD Index opened significantly higher around 99.35 as the United States (US) canceled a visit to Islamabad for another round of peace talks with Iran, despite Iran’s foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi visiting Pakistan to resume talks.

Meanwhile, Iran has offered a new proposal to the US to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war that includes putting off nuclear negotiations, according to Axios, Bloomberg reported. The report shows that nuclear talks would come later, only after a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz were lifted. This indicated Iran’s readiness to end the almost two-month-long conflicts in the Middle East.

This week, investors brace for high volatility in the major currency pair as both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are scheduled to announce monetary policies on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD trades marginally higher at around 1.1730 as of writing. The pair holds a constructive near-term bias as it trades above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1696, suggesting buyers retain control after reclaiming this dynamic support.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54.9 sits moderately above the 50 line, hinting at firm but not overstretched bullish momentum as price pushes deeper into the upper half of the recent Fibonacci retracement grid.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1749; a sustained break higher would expose the 61.8% retracement at 1.1828, followed by 1.1941 and the cycle high region near 1.2085. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-day EMA at 1.1696, with additional protection at the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1670; a deeper pullback would bring the 23.6% retracement at 1.1572 into view ahead of the structural floor around 1.1413.

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USD/CHF Price Forecast: Rejected at 100-day SMA, eyes on 0.7800

  • USD/CHF fails at 100-day SMA, signaling resistance remains intact.
  • RSI turns lower, confirming growing bearish momentum pressure.
  • Break below 0.7800 exposes 0.7775 and 0.7748 support levels.

USD/CHF dropped on Friday but finished the week with gains of over 0.35%, trading at 0.7841 as market participants grew confident that US-Iran talks could resume over the weekend to resolve the conflict.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

From a technical perspective, USD/CHF appears poised to remain in a consolidation within the 0.7800-0.7900 range. Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggests further downside, as the index is bearish and pointing lower.

Price action suggests the uptrend might be pausing after hitting a nine-day high of 0.7877, but closing near the 50-day SMA at 0.7840 and failing to clear key resistance at the 100-day SMA at 0.7863 open the door to further downside.

If market mood remains optimistic, the USD/CHF could test lower levels, with the first area of interest at 0.7800. On further weakness, April 17 low of 0.7775 ─the last cycle low─, would be the next key support ahead of clearing the path towards the March 10 daily log of 0.7748, ahead of February’s 27 daily low of 0.7672.

On the other hand, if buyers reclaim the 100-day SMA, the next line of resistance would be the 0.7900 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the 200-day SMA at 0.7936 ahead of 0.8000.

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

USD/CHF daily chart

Swiss Franc Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies this week. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.15%-0.35%0.35%-0.14%-0.38%-0.34%0.43%
EUR-0.15%-0.51%0.00%-0.27%-0.52%-0.56%0.28%
GBP0.35%0.51%2.17%0.26%0.02%-0.02%0.79%
JPY-0.35%0.00%-2.17%-0.51%-0.67%-0.71%0.04%
CAD0.14%0.27%-0.26%0.51%-0.13%-0.21%0.55%
AUD0.38%0.52%-0.02%0.67%0.13%0.02%0.79%
NZD0.34%0.56%0.02%0.71%0.21%-0.02%0.77%
CHF-0.43%-0.28%-0.79%-0.04%-0.55%-0.79%-0.77%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).

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Trade of The Day – EUR/USD

Facts: The pair bounced off the key technical support near 1.1660 Mid-term trend remains upward Recommendation: Trade: Long position on EURUSD at market price Target: 1.1830, 1.1900 Stop: 1.1600

Opinion : EURUSD has been trading in an upward trend recently. Looking at the H4 interval, one can see that the recent downward correction reached the key support, where buyers appeared .The area 1.1660-1.1670 is marked with previous price reactions, 200-period moving average, as well as lower limit of 1:1 structure. According to the classic technical analysis and Overbalance methodology, continuation of the upward move looks to be the base case scenario. We recommend going long EURUSD at market price with two targets: 1.1830 and 1.1900. We also recommend placing a stop loss order at 1.1600. Source: xStation5