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NZD/USD struggles above mid-0.5800s as Iran tensions and Fed outlook support USD

  • NZD/USD attracts sellers for the third straight day as Mideast tensions benefit the safe-haven USD.
  • Rising Oil prices fuel inflationary concerns and hawkish Fed bets, which further underpin the buck.
  • Hawkish RBNZ expectations could offer some support to the NZD and help limit losses for the pair.

The NZD/USD pair remains under some selling pressure for the third consecutive day and trades around the 0.5865-0.5860 area during the Asian session on Tuesday. Spot prices seem vulnerable to extend the previous day’s retracement slide from the 0.5925 horizontal resistance, or over a two-week high, as rising geopolitical tensions continue to underpin the US Dollar (USD).

In the latest developments, US President Donald Trump told Fox News on Monday that Iran will be blown off the face of the earth if they attack US vessels engaged in Project Freedom – aimed at guiding ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. Elsewhere, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) reported that its air defenses had engaged with missile attacks and incoming drones from Iran. This comes on top of the lack of progress in US-Iran peace talks and keeps geopolitical risks in play, which is seen acting as a tailwind for the safe-haven USD and exerting pressure on the NZD/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the US-Iran standoff led to the overnight rise in Crude Oil prices, reviving inflationary concerns and bets for more hawkish central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The outlook remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and turns out to be another factor further benefiting the buck. Meanwhile, expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) would maintain a cautious stance or consider tightening to bring inflation back to the 2% midpoint could support the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and limit losses for the NZD/USD pair.

Even from a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures near the 0.5920-0.5925 supply zone validate the negative outlook and suggest that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside. However, last week’s resilience below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for any further losses. Traders now look to the US macro data – ISM Services PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, and New Home Sales. This, along with speeches by FOMC members, might influence the USD and the NZD/USD pair.

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Chart of The Day – EUR/USD

The EUR/USD exchange rate is trading around 1.1719 on Monday, and despite seemingly positive industrial data, the eurozone is sending out worrying signals. The final reading of the PMI index for the manufacturing sector stood at 52.2 points in April, up from 51.6 a month earlier, which at first glance looks like a solid improvement. In reality, however, the rise in manufacturing activity is not driven by real demand, but by increased stockpiling by firms seeking to secure goods against further shortages and price rises resulting from the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. This is a seemingly positive result, which in fact says more about the fear of supply chain disruptions than about the actual strength of the European economy. The devil is in the details, and it is these details that are shaping the outlook for both growth and inflation in the eurozone.

Delivery delays have reached their worst level since July 2022, input cost inflation has risen to a 46-month high, and price pressures are increasingly being passed on to selling prices, marking the largest monthly jump since records began in 1997. As a result, the ECB faces a real dilemma: the data suggest a recovery, but leading indicators of producer sentiment and expectations merely confirm the growing risk of stagflation. For EUR/USD, this implies an environment of heightened uncertainty, in which the exchange rate may be prone to sharp movements depending on further signals from the Fed and the ECB, and any stronger US inflation data could push the pair back towards the support level at 1.1650.

On the EUR/USD daily chart, following a sharp rally to around 1.2060 at the start of the year, the exchange rate underwent a significant correction that brought prices down to lows around 1.1380, from where a rebound occurred.

Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1719, oscillating near the 50-day EMA (1.1681) and the 100-day EMA (1.1678), which together form a dynamic support zone, while the 200-day EMA at 1.1634 serves as another line of defense for the bulls. Bollinger Bands indicate narrowing volatility, with the upper band at 1.1771 and the lower band at 1.1669, signaling a potential breakout in the coming sessions. The RSI is hovering around the neutral level of 52, which does not provide a clear directional signal and suggests that the market is still looking for momentum for a decisive move above the resistance at 1.1800 or a deeper correction toward the aforementioned 200-day EMA support.

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USD/JPY approaches 157.00 after falling to 155.70 on likely Yen intervention

  • USD/JPY regains lost ground after a sudden drop to 155.70 earlier on Monday.
  • Yen crosses dropped sharply on Monday on another suspected intervention.
  • A Reuters report suggests that Tokyo would have spent 5.48 trillion Yen ($35 billion) last week to support the JPY.

The US Dollar (USD) pares previous losses against the Japanese Yen (JPY) ahead of the European session opening on Monday. The pair is trading at the 156.80 area at the time of writing after dropping about 150 pips in a matter of minutes during the Asian session, hitting session lows near 155.70.

The Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF) did not make any comment, as usual, but the nature of the decline, without any clear fundamental reason behind, and with all Yen crosses acting in the same way, suggests that Japanese authorities intervened in markets again.

Beyond that, Reuters reported on Friday that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might have spent 5.48 trillion Yen ($35 billion) to support the JPY last week. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned that Tokyo authorities were ready to take decisive action against currency speculators after the USD/JPY crossed the 160.00 level, considered a line in the sand for the MOF. The Yen has seen several jumps since then.

Markets, otherwise, remain calm on Monday with the focus in the Middle East, after US President Donald Trump pledged to free vessels blocked in the Strait of Hormuz, yet without giving further details on the operation. Iranian authorities affirmed that the critical waterway will remain closed.

In the economic docket, the Japanese calendar is void, amid the Golden Week holidays. In the US, Factory Orders data will open the week on Monday and lay the ground for ISM Services PMI on Tuesday and a slew of employment reports throughout the week, including the key Nonfarm Payrolls release on Friday. Apart from that, a string of Federal Reserve policymakers will provide further insight into the central bank’s monetary policy stance. 

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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds above 1.1700 as bullish potential seems intact

  • EUR/USD struggles to capitalize on a modest bullish gap at the start of a new week.
  • The technical setup favors bulls and backs the case for some upside in the near-term.
  • A break below the 1.1650-1.1645 confluence is needed to negate the positive bias.

The EUR/USD pair attracts some intraday sellers following a modest Asian session uptick to mid-1.1700s and fills a major part of a bullish gap at the start of a new week. Spot prices, however, manage to hold above the 1.1700 round figure, warranting some caution before positioning for an extension of Friday’s retracement slide from a one-and-a-half week top.

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair holds a modest bullish bias as it trades above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, suggesting dips are being absorbed for now. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 53 points to mildly positive but not overstretched momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains slightly in positive territory. This hints that upside pressure is present but not yet impulsive.

However, Friday’s pullback makes it prudent to wait for a sustained strength and acceptance above the 1.1750 area, or the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April upswing, before positioning for further gains. A subsequent hurdle is aligned at the recent cycle high area at 1.1847.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 38.2% retracement around 1.1692, followed by a key confluence zone formed by the 200-period SMA at 1.1648 and the 50.0% retracement at 1.1644. A deeper pullback could then target the 61.8% level at 1.1596, ahead of 1.1528 and 1.1441.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis EUR/USD
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AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Weakens below 113.00, while broader uptrend remains intact

  • AUD/JPY weakens to around 112.95 in Monday’s early European session. 
  • The cross keeps bullish vibe above the 100-day EMA, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out in near term. 
  • The immediate resistance level emerges at 113.40; the initial support level is seen at 112.00. 

The AUD/JPY cross loses ground near 112.95 during the early European session on Monday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) softens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as uncertainty surrounding Middle East tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz boosts safe-haven assets. 

US President Donald Trump announced the US will begin guiding ships through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday, per CNN. Meanwhile, Iranian official Ebrahim Azizi warned that the plan is a violation of the ceasefire.

On the other hand, markets expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to deliver a third straight interest rate hike on Tuesday. The primary driver is a significant jump in headline inflation in March, fueled by global energy shocks and Middle East tensions.  

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY maintains a constructive bullish bias as spot holds well above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), keeping the broader uptrend intact despite the latest pullback from recent highs. Price is also trading above the lower Bollinger Band, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 50.8 has eased back to neutral territory, hinting at a consolidation phase rather than an outright reversal.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the 20-day Bollinger middle band at 113.40. A sustained break above this pivot would expose the April 28 high of 114.72, en route to the upper Bollinger band near 115.18 as the next bullish target. On the downside, immediate support is seen around the 112.00 psychological level, followed by the lower Bollinger band at 111.65; a deeper correction towards the 100-day EMA at 109.37 would still be consistent with a broader bullish structure while offering a potentially stronger demand zone.

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Top 3 Price Prediction: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple – BTC extends rally, ETH and XRP near key resistance zones

  • Bitcoin extends gains on Monday after taking a breather in the previous week.
  • Ethereum approaches the 200-day EMA, a decisive close above this level could open the door for an upside move.
  • XRP hovers near the $1.40 resistance zone, a breakout above this barrier may trigger a fresh rally.

Bitcoin (BTC) pushes higher on Monday, trading above $80,000 and resuming its uptrend after a brief consolidation phase last week. Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) follow BTC’s footsteps and extend gains at the start of the week, nearing their key resistance zones, where a breakout suggests a fresh rally ahead.

Bitcoin hits $80,000

Bitcoin price is trading at $80,161 on Monday, retaining a constructive bias as it holds above a dense support band defined by the 50% retracement at $78,962 (drawn from the January high to the February low) and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $75,903. The shorter-term 50-day EMA around $74,448 reinforces the underlying uptrend.

Momentum remains firm, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart hovers in bullish territory near 66, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned higher and returned to positive territory, hinting that buyers still control the near-term tone despite the proximity to major overhead barriers.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 200-day EMA around $81,912, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $83,437 and a more prominent horizontal cap near $84,410; a daily close above this cluster would open the way toward the January highs around $97,924.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the psychological $80,000 handle, with the 50% retracement at $78,962 as the first substantive floor; a deeper pullback would expose a broader demand area between the 100-day EMA at $75,903, the prior channel top near $75,680, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge while the broader bullish structure remains intact.

Ethereum could extend gains if it closes above the 50-day EMA

Ethereum is trading at $2,370 on Monday, maintaining a constructive near-term bias as price holds above the 50-day and 100-day EMA at roughly $2,256 and $2,344, respectively. ETH, however, is approaching a dense Fibonacci barrier, with the 38.2% retracement at $2,380 capping the immediate topside, while higher retracements and the 200-day EMA, clustered around $2,575, reinforce broader overhead supply. 

A rising RSI on the daily chart near 58 suggests firm but not overstretched bullish momentum, while the negative yet improving MACD histogram hints that downside pressure is fading within this developing up-leg.

On the upside, initial resistance is located at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $2,380, beyond which the $2,575 area forms a critical confluence zone, combining the 50% retracement at $2,575 with the 200-day EMA at $2,575; a daily close above this cluster would open the way toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $2,770.

On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 100-day EMA at $2,344, followed by the 50-day EMA at $2,256, while the upper boundary of the horizontal parallel channel around $2,148 and the 23.6% retracement at $2,138 guard the broader bullish structure, with only a drop toward the channel floor near $1,747 threatening the medium-term uptrend.

XRP is near key resistance at $1.40

XRP price is trading at $1.41 on Monday, is hovering just above the 50-day EMA at $1.40, which lends initial trend support, but it remains well below the 100-day EMA at 1.50 and the broader downward parallel channel cap near $1.54, keeping the medium-term tone capped within a broader corrective structure.

The RSI at 53 suggests mildly positive but not overstretched momentum, while the MACD has slipped slightly into negative territory, hinting that upside traction may be fading as price consolidates under higher EMAs.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 100-day EMA around $1.50, followed by the upper boundary of the descending channel near $1.55; a sustained break above these would be needed to challenge the 200-day EMA at $1.74 and the more distant horizontal barrier at $1.90.

On the downside, the 50-day EMA at $1.40 underpins the market as first support, ahead of the horizontal floor at $1.30, while the channel base down at $0.73 marks the broader structural support zone in the event of a deeper pullback.

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USD/JPY consolidates near 157.00 as Iran tensions counter suspected JPY intervention

  • USD/JPY edges up following a modest bearish gap opening on Monday amid some USD dip-buying.
  • Rising Iran tensions and reviving Fed rate hike bets turn out to be key factors supporting the buck.
  • Intervention fears might keep the JPY bears on the back foot and cap the upside for spot prices.

The USD/JPY pair attracts some dip-buyers following a modest Asian session downtick to the 156.60 region on Monday. Spot prices climb to the 157.00 mark in the last hour, though it lacks follow-through, warranting caution before positioning for an extension of Friday’s goodish recovery from the 155.50-155.45 area, or the lowest level since February 25.

Renewed concerns about the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East assist the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) to fill a modest bearish gap, which, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair. US President Donald Trump announced that the US will begin guiding neutral ships out of the Strait of Hormuz under an operation called Project Freedom and added that if this process is disrupted, we will deal with it by force. In response, Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian parliament’s National Security Commission, issued a formal warning that any US interference in the strategic waterway would constitute a ceasefire violation.

Meanwhile, Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Neel Kashkari said on Sunday that a prolonged Iran conflict increases inflation risks and economic damage. Moreover, Kashkari raised the possibility of moving rates higher, citing uncertainty around all aspects of the war. This further underpins the Greenback and lends support to the USD/JPY pair. However, reports that Japanese authorities likely intervened around May 1, spending approximately ¥5.4 trillion ($34.5 billion) to prop up the weak domestic currency, might hold back bears from placing fresh bets around the Japanese Yen (JPY). This should keep a lid on the currency pair.

Moving ahead, there isn’t any relevant market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Monday, leaving the buck and the USD/JPY pair at the mercy of fresh developments surrounding the Middle East crisis. The aforementioned fundamental backdrop, however, makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that spot prices have formed a near-term bottom and positioning for any meaningful upside.

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EUR/USD falls to near 1.1700 as US to raise tariffs on EU vehicles

  • EUR/USD falls as Trump signals US tariffs on EU cars and trucks rising to 25% from 15%.
  • US Dollar trims daily losses as risk aversion rises on escalating Middle East tensions.
  • Trump plans escorting ships via Strait of Hormuz; Ebrahim Azizi warns US role violates ceasefire.

EUR/USD depreciates after opening at the bullish gap, remaining in the positive territory and trading around 1.1720 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair declined as the Euro (EUR) faces challenges, which could be attributed to the recent comments from President Donald Trump, indicating the US will raise tariffs on European Union (EU) cars and trucks to 25% from 15% this week, citing alleged breaches of a trade deal.

Trump said in a social media post, warning EU-made vehicles would face higher duties unless production shifts to US plants, aiming to push carmakers to localize output. The European Commission rejected the claim, saying it is complying with last summer’s agreement and vowing to defend EU interests if Washington violates the deal.

The EUR/USD pair also loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) pares its daily losses amid increased risk aversion driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East. Bloomberg reported on Sunday that Donald Trump said the United States will begin guiding some neutral ships trapped in the Persian Gulf out through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday.

Ebrahim Azizi, a former commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and current head of the parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said that any US interference in the new maritime regime of the Strait of Hormuz would be considered a violation of the ceasefire. He added that the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf are not a place for rhetoric.