Technical Analysis 11 - Currency Hedger

Currency Hedger May 1, 2026 No Comments

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Buyers defend 100-day SMA as momentum weakens

GBP/JPY rebounds modestly after earlier sell-off likely triggered by suspected intervention by Japanese authorities.
Technically, the cross holds a bullish bias above key moving averages, though weakening momentum signals fading upside strength.
The 100-day SMA offers immediate support, while 213.50 acts as the first upside hurdle.

GBP/JPY stages a modest rebound on Friday after coming under selling pressure earlier in the day amid suspected intervention by Tokyo for a second straight day to curb excessive weakness in the Japanese Yen (JPY). At the time of writing, the cross is trading around 213.42, recovering from an intraday low of 211.81 and poised to end the week in negative territory for the first time in four weeks.

However, there has been no official confirmation of intervention by Japanese authorities so far, though officials issued a “final” warning on Thursday after USD/JPY briefly moved past the 160 level, a threshold that has previously triggered action. This move spilled across Yen crosses, with GBP/JPY posting a sharp pullback from a multi-year high near 216.60 to around 210.45 the previous day.

Although underlying fundamentals, including wide interest rate differentials between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and other major central banks, continue to weigh on the Yen, the latest leg lower suggests near-term downside pressure on the cross as momentum indicators turn negative.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, GBP/JPY holds a constructive bias while consolidating above its key trend filters. The 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 200-day SMA sit comfortably below the spot, suggesting underlying demand despite the recent pullback.

However, momentum has cooled, with the Relative Strength Index easing toward the mid-40s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slipping into negative territory, hinting that upside attempts may lack follow-through in the very near term.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the horizontal barrier near 214.50, where a daily close above would reopen the path toward the recent peak of 216.60 and signal renewed bullish impulse.

On the downside, initial support is provided by the 100-day SMA at 211.89, with a break there exposing deeper retracement toward the 200-day SMA at 206.74, where buyers would be expected to defend the broader uptrend.

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.19%	-0.14%	0.02%	-0.19%	-0.06%	0.12%	-0.11%
EUR	0.19%		0.04%	0.18%	-0.01%	0.15%	0.30%	0.08%
GBP	0.14%	-0.04%		0.15%	-0.04%	0.09%	0.26%	0.06%
JPY	-0.02%	-0.18%	-0.15%		-0.20%	-0.08%	0.07%	-0.12%
CAD	0.19%	0.01%	0.04%	0.20%		0.12%	0.29%	0.10%
AUD	0.06%	-0.15%	-0.09%	0.08%	-0.12%		0.16%	-0.02%
NZD	-0.12%	-0.30%	-0.26%	-0.07%	-0.29%	-0.16%		-0.20%
CHF	0.11%	-0.08%	-0.06%	0.12%	-0.10%	0.02%	0.20%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger May 1, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD nears weekly highs at 1.1755 as the US Dollar falters

EUR/USD extends gains on Friday, approaching weekly highs, at 1.1755.
Another alleged Yen intervention has hit the US Dollar on a holiday-thinned market.
The Euro bounced up on Thursday amid hot Eurozone inflation and a hawkish hold by the ECB.

The Euro (EUR) has turned positive against a weaker US Dollar (USD) on Friday, and is trading at 1.1742 at the time of writing, a few pips short of the top of the weekly trading range, at 1.1755. An alleged intervention by Japanese authorities, presumably the second in the last two days, hit the USD/JPY earlier on Friday, hammering the Greenback in thinned Labour Day trading.

The USD/JPY dropped nearly 200 pips in a matter of seconds at the early European session, in a move that reverberated throughout the market, sending the US Dollar lower across the board. The EUR/USD, which hitherto was featuring moderate losses, resumed its positive trend from Thursday’s lows at 1.1655.

The pair regained lost ground on Thursday, as investors prioritised the hot Eurozone inflation figures over the weakening Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. Later on, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a “hawkish hold,” keeping interest rates unchanged but hinting at a rate hike in the near term.

The ECB’s stance was reaffirmed by the Bundesbank president and committee member, Joachim Nagel, who said on Friday that the baseline scenario entails a more restrictive monetary policy and flagged the possibility of a rate hike in June.

Meanwhile, the situation in the Middle East remains stalled. The US and Iran have continued exchanging threats, with the Strait of Hormuz entering its third month of blockade and no credible plan to reopen it at sight. Oil prices are above the key $100, with Brent Oil at $113.94 at the time of writing, a very painful level for Eurozone Crude-importing economies, which will, highly likely, weigh on the Euro in the long run.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD keeps looking for direction around 1.1700

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD remains trapped within a broadly 100-pip range, with support above 1.1650 holding bears and upside attempts limited below 1.1750.

Technical indicators on the 4-hour chart are showing an improving momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaches the 60 level, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing a widening green histogram, suggesting that the bullish momentum is gathering pace.

Bulls, however, would need to break the mentioned 1.1755 resistance (April 27 high) to confirm that the bearish correction from 1.1850 highs has been completed. Further up, the April 20 high near 1.1790 is likely to test the Euro’s recovery ahead of April’s peak, right below 1.1850.

Bears, on the other hand, are struggling to extend dips below a cluster of supports between 1.1675 and the April 8 intraday low, near 1.1645. A confirmation below here would clear the way to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the early April rally, at 1.1580, and the April 2 and 3 low, near 1.1500.

Currency Hedger May 1, 2026 No Comments

Chart of The Day – Intervention on the Yen? Tokyo Challenges Speculators

Key takeaways

Intervention at 160: Breaking the psychological USDJPY barrier forced Tokyo to act, pushing the rate down to 155 amid low liquidity during Golden Week.
Buying Time: Market interventions provide only temporary relief; a long-term trend reversal requires BoJ rate hikes and a shift in U.S. dollar strength.
Path to 1.0%: Despite the slow pace, high inflation and a weak yen are fueling a hawkish shift within the BoJ, with eyes on a 1.0% rate later in 2026.

Japan has once again found itself at the center of attention in global financial markets. Massive problems related to the energy crisis, high bond yields, prospects of resurgent inflation, and economic slowdown have led to another wave of yen sell-offs. Ultimately, when USDJPY once again broke through the 160 level, a currency intervention most likely took place. Although there has been no direct confirmation yet and we must wait for official, significantly delayed data from the Ministry of Finance, officials are confirming the situation between the lines and announcing a possible further fight against speculators.

A Repeat of the Past: What Happened on April 30th?

The final session of April brought dramatic scenarios. The USDJPY pair once again breached the psychological 160 barrier , triggering an avalanche of orders and forcing Tokyo to act. We quickly observed a strengthening of the yen, and the USDJPY pair dropped to the 155 level. Such a sharp move occurred during a period of low liquidity—the Golden Week in Japan. It is also worth noting that this move coincided with record highs on the June Brent crude oil contract, which also dropped significantly at the moment of the Japanese intervention.

Golden Week is a 7-day period at the turn of April and May, featuring four national holidays. Authorities in Tokyo, led by Atsushi Mimura, sent a clear signal: “Golden Week” will not be a safe haven for speculation. History of Interventions: Is This a Good Time for the Yen? (2022–2024) Japan has a rich, albeit bittersweet history of fighting market trends. Recent history shows that interventions are an effective “emergency brake,” but they rarely change the direction of travel in the long term. It is also worth remembering that there were years when the Ministry of Finance sold the yen due to excessive strength to boost export power.

History of recent interventions:

September/October 2022: The first large-scale market operations in decades conducted at a record-weak yen. The result was approximately a 15% strengthening of the yen against the dollar, a move that lasted about 3 months. USDJPY returned to the October 2022 peaks after about 10 months.
April/May 2024: Action aimed at defending the previous 2022 peaks and the approach to the psychological level of 160 USDJPY. It brought immediate success, and the situation on the currency pair only stabilized longer-term following dovish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed).
July 2024: Another strike against speculators, this time supported by hawkish rhetoric from the Bank of Japan. The effect was much more lasting than in previous cases because the intervention was accompanied by an actual interest rate hike by the BoJ. On the other hand, the downward move lasted 2 months and amounted to approximately 13.5% on the USDJPY pair.

What is the conclusion? Intervention alone is only “buying time.” Real change depends on the divergence (or lack thereof) between the policies of the Bank of Japan and the U.S. Federal Reserve.

It is worth noting that the spread should have clearly favored the yen for nearly a year now , but the rise in yields in Japan is a result not only of higher interest rates but primarily concerns regarding the massive debt situation and further fiscal expansion plans. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB

Furthermore, after the previous intervention in 2024, speculators changed their stance and a sharp short-squeeze on the yen began, with the market shifting from a net negative to a positive positioning for the first time since 2016. Currently, however, we are seeing an increase in short positions to almost the extreme high levels of 2024 or 2007. Source: xStation5

Bank of Japan Strategy: An Extremely Slow March Toward Normalization

While the Ministry of Finance fights on the front line with billions of dollars from reserves, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is conducting an operation to normalize monetary policy after decades of maintaining extremely low interest rates. Nevertheless, due to the state of the Japanese economy, this process is very slow.

Where are we? After the December hike in 2025, the main interest rate in Japan stands at 0.75% —its highest level in three decades, yet still one of the lowest in the world. Japan is still being used for carry trade transactions.
Divisions in the board: Recent meetings have shown a growing hawkish camp. As many as three out of nine board members favor an immediate move to the 1.0% level. This means that the probability of a hike this year is high.
Inflationary pressure: The BoJ forecasts core inflation (core CPI) for 2026 at 2.8%, which, with current rates, means that real interest rates remain deeply negative.

What’s Next for Rates? The base scenario assumes that the BoJ will raise rates to 1.0% still in 2026. The weak yen is a key catalyst here: expensive energy and food imports are draining the wallets of the Japanese people, becoming a political issue that the central bank cannot ignore.

Does the Yen Have a Chance for a Permanent Recovery?

The intervention at the end of April is a clear sign that Tokyo’s threshold of patience lies around the 160 level. However, the fundamentals remain relentless. For the yen to gain value permanently, the market must believe in two factors: a change in BoJ communication to a more hawkish tone , which must be handled cautiously to avoid a crisis in yields; and a change in sentiment regarding the dollar. If the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz ends, the dollar will no longer be as necessary as a safe haven. On the other hand, if the Fed begins to communicate possible hikes, USDJPY could permanently find itself above 160.

The pair is currently in an important area of potential extreme overbought conditions. Interventions would need to be carried out regularly, and additionally, we would need to see a fundamental shift on both the Japanese and global sides. Source: xStation5

Currency Hedger May 1, 2026 No Comments

USD/JPY – Holds above 157.00; bulls seem hesitant amid intervention fears

USD/JPY moves away from a two-month low following the release of a softer Tokyo CPI print.
A modest USD uptick further supports spot prices, though intervention risks cap the upside.
The mixed technical setup warrants caution before positioning for any further appreciation.

The USD/JPY pair builds on the previous day’s late rebound from the vicinity of mid-155.00s, or over a two-month trough, and gains some positive traction during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices touched a daily high near the 157.55 region, though the lack of follow-through buying warrants some caution for bullish traders.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens across as softer consumer inflation figures from Tokyo – Japan’s capital city – give the Bank of Japan (BoJ) reasons to pause amid economic concerns due to Middle East tensions. Apart from this, a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick turns out to be another factor offering support to the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, Japan’s top foreign exchange diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, reiterated that officials are in close contact with the US on currency. This keeps intervention risks in play and limits JPY losses, capping the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, Thursday’s steep intraday decline from the 160.75 area, or the highest level since July 2024, stalled near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the February-April upswing. Moreover, the USD/JPY pair, so far, has held above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which, in turn, keeps bearish traders on the back foot. However, a softening Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 40, alongside a negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading below zero, suggests downside pressure persists.

Hence, recovery attempts are likely to face supply on further rise towards initial resistance at the 38.2% retracement near 157.48. That said, a sustained strength beyond would expose the 23.6% retracement at 158.73 and then the 160.75 cycle high.

On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 50.0% retracement near 156.47, followed by the 61.8% retracement at 155.47 and the 200-day EMA at 155.21. A clear loss of this area would open the way toward deeper Fibonacci support at 154.03 and the 152.20 swing low.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/JPY daily chart

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.03%	0.05%	0.39%	0.03%	0.13%	0.24%	0.07%
EUR	-0.03%		0.00%	0.37%	-0.02%	0.11%	0.20%	0.04%
GBP	-0.05%	-0.01%		0.34%	0.00%	0.08%	0.18%	0.05%
JPY	-0.39%	-0.37%	-0.34%		-0.36%	-0.27%	-0.18%	-0.31%
CAD	-0.03%	0.02%	0.00%	0.36%		0.09%	0.21%	0.05%
AUD	-0.13%	-0.11%	-0.08%	0.27%	-0.09%		0.11%	-0.02%
NZD	-0.24%	-0.20%	-0.18%	0.18%	-0.21%	-0.11%		-0.15%
CHF	-0.07%	-0.04%	-0.05%	0.31%	-0.05%	0.02%	0.15%

Currency Hedger May 1, 2026 No Comments

USD/CAD – Descending 20-day EMA supports more downside

USD/CAD trades cautiously around 1.3580 amid the US Dollar’s underperformance.
Investors await Fed speeches for fresh cues on the US interest rate outlook.
The BoC opens the door for interest rate hikes amid upside inflation risks.

The USD/CAD pair trades with caution near Thursday’s low at around 1.3580 during the late Asian trading session on Friday. The Loonie pair trades weakly as the US Dollar (USD) is broadly under pressure, following Japanese intervention in the forex markets.

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is marginally higher to near 98.20, but is close to its 10-day low of 98.00.

US Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.25%	-0.62%	-1.43%	-0.70%	-0.82%	-0.45%	-0.59%
EUR	0.25%		-0.35%	-1.25%	-0.43%	-0.55%	-0.18%	-0.32%
GBP	0.62%	0.35%		-0.88%	-0.07%	-0.20%	0.17%	0.03%
JPY	1.43%	1.25%	0.88%		0.80%	0.66%	1.11%	0.93%
CAD	0.70%	0.43%	0.07%	-0.80%		-0.08%	0.31%	0.11%
AUD	0.82%	0.55%	0.20%	-0.66%	0.08%		0.38%	0.24%
NZD	0.45%	0.18%	-0.17%	-1.11%	-0.31%	-0.38%		-0.14%
CHF	0.59%	0.32%	-0.03%	-0.93%	-0.11%	-0.24%	0.14%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

The next major trigger for the US Dollar will be commentaries from a slew of Federal Reserve (Fed) officials as the blackout period has ended after the monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

In the policy meeting, the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, as expected, with an 8-4 majority. Four members dissented from the hold decision, of which three called for a move away from the easing bias.

Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) outperforms as the Bank of Canada (BoC) warned on Wednesday that interest rates could rise, with energy prices remaining higher.

USD/CAD technical analysis

USD/CAD trades close to Thursday’s low at around 1.3580 at the press time. The pair holds a bearish near-term bias as spot remains capped beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3698 and a Fibonacci-heavy resistance band starting at the 61.8% retracement near 1.3667.

A shift in the Relative Strength Index (14) below 40.00 warrants fresh downside momentum with no oversold signals in sight.

On the downside, the pair could slide towards the March 9 low of 1.3525 and the swing low at 1.3482 if it fails to hold the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3585.

On the topside, a recovery would first face resistance at the 61.8% retracement at 1.3667, followed by the 20-day EMA at 1.3698 and the 50% retracement near 1.3725; only a sustained break above this cluster would ease the current bearish tone and open the way toward higher retracement barriers at 1.3782 and 1.3853.

Currency Hedger May 1, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD Price Holds onto gains near 1.1730

EUR/USD trades firmly near 1.1735 amid weakness in the US Dollar.
Investors await the ECB commentaries and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for April.
The US GDP growth remained at 2% on an annualized basis in the first quarter of the year.

The EUR/USD pair clings to Thursday’s gains near 1.1735 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The major currency pair reflects strength as the US Dollar (USD) holds onto the previous day’s losses, which were driven by suspected Japan’s intervention in forex markets.

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades weakly near Thursday’s low around 98.00.

On Thursday, the US preliminary Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data arrived weaker than projected. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy grew at an annualized pace of 2%, slower than 2.3% estimates.

Meanwhile, investors await the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for April, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to arrive higher at 53.0 from the previous reading of 52.7.

During the Asian trade, the Euro (EUR) trades broadly firm, with investors awaiting commentaries from a slew of European Central Bank (ECB) officials, following the completion of the so-called quiet period after the monetary policy announcement on Thursday.

USD/JPY technical analysis

EUR/USD trades firmly at around 1.1735, holding a mildly bullish bias as it sits above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1702 and between key Fibonacci retracement levels of the latest swing. The pair is hovering just under the 50.0% retracement at 1.1745, suggesting topside progress is slowing but not yet reversing, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 55 hints at constructive, yet not overextended, upside momentum.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1745, followed by the 61.8% level at 1.1825, with further barriers at 1.1938 and 1.2082. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-period EMA at 1.1702, ahead of the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1666; a deeper pullback would expose the 23.6% retracement at 1.1567, with the cycle low near 1.1408 acting as a more distant structural floor.

Currency Hedger May 1, 2026 No Comments

AUD/JPY Price Gains ground, maintaining bullish bias above 100-day EMA

AUD/JPY edges higher to around 113.10 in Friday’s early European session.
The cross keeps a positive tone above the 100-day EMA, with the RSI pointing to neutral but slightly positive momentum.
The immediate resistance level emerges at 113.30; the initial support level to watch is 111.10.

The AUD/JPY cross holds positive ground near 113.10 during the early European session on Friday. The cross remains firm after pulling back from a multi-decade high of 114.72. However, the potential upside for AUD/JPY might be limited amid intervention fears.

Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, on Friday declined to confirm the Japanese Yen (JPY) intervention directly but delivered a pointed warning to speculators, noting that Japan’s Golden Week holidays have just started and that there is no change to his view that market moves remain speculative in nature.

On the other hand, a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could underpin the Aussie. Australian headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation climbed to 4.6% YoY in March, primarily due to fuel price shocks linked to ongoing Middle East conflicts. While the figure was slightly below the 4.7% forecast, it remains well above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range, keeping pressure on the central bank to hike rates.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY keeps a constructive bullish bias as it holds above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the lower Bollinger Band. Price is testing the Bollinger 20-day simple moving average (SMA) pivot at 113.30, suggesting ongoing upside interest after the recent pullback, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 52 points to neutral but slightly positive momentum rather than overbought conditions.

On the topside, a sustained break above the Bollinger mid-line at 113.30 would open the way toward the April 28 high of 114.72, en route to the upper Bollinger Band of 115.45. On the downside, initial demand is seen at the lower Bollinger Band near 111.10, ahead of stronger, medium-term support at the 100-day EMA around 109.30, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge if a deeper correction unfolds.

Currency Hedger April 30, 2026 No Comments

USD/INR surrenders some gains, remains close to record highs

The Indian Rupee recovers slightly from its record lows of around 95.35 against the US Dollar.
Oil prices hit a fresh over seven-week high as US President Trump vows to prolong the blockade on Iran.
More Fed members call for a shift from easing bias.

The Indian Rupee (INR) claws back some of its early losses against the US Dollar (USD) during afternoon market hours in India on Thursday after plummeting to record lows. The USD/INR pair corrects slightly to near 95.10 as the US Dollar turns upside down, but is still close to its all-time high 95.35. The pair rallied in the opening as oil prices gained sharply, following remarks from United States (US) President Donald Trump that Washington’s naval blockade on Iran will remain intact.

Trump warns prolong naval blockade on Iran

On late Wednesday, US President Trump announced that he has rejected the recent peace proposal from Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for almost 20% of global energy supply, whose closure has prompted the supply crisis and has boosted oil prices, which could have delayed negotiations regarding Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

US President Trump said that Washington will continue the naval blockade of Iran until he secures a deal with Tehran to address the country’s nuclear program.

At the press time, the WTI Oil price ticks lower to near $105.00 after facing slight profit booking near its fresh over seven-week high of $107.35 posted earlier in the day.

Currencies from economies, such as India that rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.

Fed sees current policy stance as appropriate

The US Dollar gives back its early losses and slides lower; however, its outlook remains upbeat, following remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that the “number of officials who would support a move away from an easing bias has increased”.

As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.18% lower to near 98.80.

On Wednesday, the Fed left interest rates steady in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, with an 8-4 majority. One member dissented in favor of a rate cut, while three dissented against the inclusion of an easing bias, according to the monetary policy statement.

In the press conference, Fed Chair Powell warned that the central bank is vigilant to “risks on both sides of our mandate”, adding, “Developments in the Middle East are contributing to uncertainty.”

FIIs continue to dump their stake in Indian stock market

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remain net sellers in the Indian stock market amid surging oil prices, which have raised concerns about India Inc.’s earnings projections. Overseas investors have remained net sellers in all previous eight trading days, and have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 22,863.50

Technical Analysis: USD/INR sees more upside towards 96.00

USD/INR posts a fresh all-time high near 95.35 during the day on Thursday. The pair holds a firm bullish bias as spot remains well above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 93.83, keeping the short-term uptrend intact.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 65.77, indicating strong but not yet extreme upside momentum, which suggests buyers still retain control, though the risk of overextension is building.

On the downside, initial support is aligned with the 20-EMA around 93.81, where a deeper pullback would be expected to attract dip buyers and maintain the broader advance while it holds. A daily close below this dynamic floor would hint at fading upside pressure and open the door to a more extended correction toward prior price congestion levels not yet tested in the current leg. Looking up, the price has entered uncharted territory and will likely extend its rally towards 96.00.