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EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Loses momentum to near 185.00, but bias stays bullish

  • EUR/JPY weakens to around 185.10 in Thursday’s early European session. 
  • The cross keeps the bullish vibe, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out in near term with neutral RSI momentum. 
  • The immediate resistance to watch is 185.65; the initial support level is seen at 184.70. 

The EUR/JPY cross loses momentum to near 185.10 during the early European session on Thursday. Escalations in the US-Iran conflict boost the safe-haven currency, such as the Japanese Yen (JPY) and act as a headwind for the cross. 

CNN reported on Thursday that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched an attack targeting an American air base, which they said was the source of US strikes on Iranian targets hours before. The US strikes targeted Iranian drones and a launch site near the Strait of Hormuz. 

Traders will keep an eye on the Tokyo May Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report, which is due later on Friday. In case of a softer-than-expected Tokyo CPI print, this could drag the Japanese Yen lower against the Euro (EUR) in the near term. 

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/JPY holds a mild bullish bias as it trades above the 100-day simple moving average and the Bollinger Bands middle line near 184.71, keeping the broader uptrend underpinned. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 50, suggesting consolidative but still slightly constructive momentum while price drifts toward the upper Bollinger band.

On the topside, the immediate resistance is the Bollinger upper band around 185.65, and a clear break above this ceiling would open the way for a renewed extension of the advance. On the downside, initial support is seen at the Bollinger middle band near 184.70 and the 100-day SMA at 184.40, with the lower Bollinger band near 183.78 acting as a deeper cushion if a corrective pullback develops.

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AUD/USD Price Forecast: On verge of Head and Shoulder breakdown

  • AUD/USD tumbles to near 0.7100 as the Australian Dollar underperforms due to multiple headwinds.
  • The exchange of attacks between the US and Iran has dented optimism towards a peace deal.
  • Slower-than-projected Australian CPI growth in April has forced traders to pare hawkish RBA bets.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) slumps over 0.5% to near 0.7100 during the Asian trading session on Thursday. The Aussie par slumps as the antipodean underperforms its peers due to risk-off market sentiment and diminished hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) bets.

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.30%0.38%0.05%0.16%0.55%0.51%0.32%
EUR-0.30%0.08%-0.28%-0.15%0.25%0.22%0.02%
GBP-0.38%-0.08%-0.34%-0.23%0.17%0.15%-0.07%
JPY-0.05%0.28%0.34%0.11%0.51%0.46%0.28%
CAD-0.16%0.15%0.23%-0.11%0.41%0.36%0.16%
AUD-0.55%-0.25%-0.17%-0.51%-0.41%-0.02%-0.24%
NZD-0.51%-0.22%-0.15%-0.46%-0.36%0.02%-0.21%
CHF-0.32%-0.02%0.07%-0.28%-0.16%0.24%0.21%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

Market sentiment turns favorable for safe-haven assets as Iran has retaliated against the United States (US) attacks near Bandar Abbas airport by striking its military bases in the Gulf region. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.3% higher, slightly above 99.50. S&P 500 futures and all major Asian stock markets are bleeding, as of writing, indicating a significant dent in investors’ risk appetite.

Hawkish RBA prospects have squeezed as the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April showed that inflationary pressures cooled down at a faster-than-expected pace. Month-on-month CPI arrived at 0.4%, lower than 0.6% estimates and the previous reading of 1.1%. On an annualized basis, the Australian CPI grew at a moderate pace of 4.2% against expectations of 4.4% and the March reading of 4.6%.

Following the Australian CPI data, markets now imply almost no chance of a June move, while the probability of an August hike has more than halved to 40%, Reuters reports.

AUD/USD technical analysis

AUD/USD trades significantly lower at around 0.7100 as of writing. The near-term tone of the pair is bearish as it holds below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 0.7158. Also, the Head and Shoulder (H&S) formation backs a bearish bias.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 43, indicating subdued momentum rather than oversold conditions, hinting that sellers still retain the upper hand.

Looking down, the pair could enter a fresh leg of decline if it breaks below the neckline of the H&S formation at around 0.7070. Major support zones will be 0.7050 and the April 13 low around 0.6990. On the topside, the 20-day EMA at 0.7158 is the first resistance to beat for the bulls to ease immediate downside pressure and open the way for a more sustained recovery towards 0.7200.

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NZD the strongest currency after a hawkish surprise from the RBNZ

RBNZ: hawkish hold The RBNZ delivered a decision that the market interpreted as a classic “hawkish hold.” The Official Cash Rate (OCR) was kept unchanged at 2.25% , but only after a rare 3–3 split within the Monetary Policy Committee. Governor Anna Breman, Karen Silk, and Paul Conway voted to keep rates unchanged, while Carl Hansen, Hayley Gourley, and Prasanna Gai supported an immediate 25 bp hike to 2.50% . Breman’s deciding vote left policy unchanged, but the broader message was clear: the easing phase is over, and the next move will be upward. The RBNZ explicitly stated that the OCR will need to rise sooner and by more than the bank expected as recently as February. A more challenging macroeconomic environment The macroeconomic backdrop has become significantly more complicated. The central bank is now dealing with a negative supply shock stemming from the Middle East conflict — primarily through higher oil, gas, and petrochemical prices — while domestic demand is already beginning to weaken. Inflation is now expected to peak at 4.3% in Q3 2026 , with a return to the 2% inflation target not expected until mid- 2027 . At the same time, business and consumer sentiment indicators, housing market activity, and corporate hiring plans have all deteriorated. In practice, this means that the RBNZ is facing a difficult combination of factors:

  • inflation risks are clearly higher, especially if firms and workers begin treating the energy shock as permanent;
  • growth risks are clearly lower, as higher fuel costs reduce real incomes, margins, and consumption;
  • spare capacity and elevated unemployment should partially limit second-round effects, but not enough for the bank to ignore the risk of inflation becoming entrenched.

Implications for investors The key takeaway for investors is that the decision was not dovish despite rates being left unchanged. All six MPC members agreed that rate hikes at upcoming meetings will likely be necessary to prevent short-term inflation from feeding into medium-term inflation expectations. The updated rate path points to a significantly more restrictive stance in the future, and market commentary suggests a high probability of hikes at the July, September, and October meetings. New Zealand dollar reaction The New Zealand dollar reacted with gains. The market focused more on the hawkish forward guidance than on the hold itself. NZDUSD rose 0.70% toward the 0.5870 area following the decision release. Such a reaction is logical: the split vote, higher OCR path, and clear suggestion that hikes are likely later this year support the currency through expectations of wider interest rate differentials. At the same time, the upside potential may not be one-directional. The same statement also emphasized weaker domestic growth, fragile economic sentiment, and risks to activity, while the RBNZ itself pointed to high volatility in the trade-weighted NZD exchange rate.

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Indian Rupee ticks higher as oil prices decline while Iran uncertainty persists

  • The Indian Rupee ticks higher against the US Dollar as oil prices decline.
  • Iran alleges that the US is violating the ceasefire.
  • FIIs turned out to be net sellers on Tuesday, offloading the stake worth Rs. 2,407.87 crore.

The Indian Rupee (INR) trades marginally higher against the US Dollar (USD) in the opening session on Wednesday. The USD/INR pair ticks lower to near 95.70 as oil prices fail to hold their Tuesday’s recovery move, with market participants remaining confident that the United States (US) and Iran are close to reaching a deal.

At press time, the WTI Oil price trades 1.8% lower to near $90.80. Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, attract bids following a sharp correction in oil prices.

US-Iran negotiations continue despite US defensive attacks on Iran

On Tuesday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threatened retaliation after the US carried out strikes on southern Iran, which were described as “self-defense” by the US Central Command. The Iranian Foreign Ministry condemned the US attacks, calling them a “gross violation” of the ceasefire.

However, negotiations between the US and Iran regarding an end to the Middle East war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply, continue through mediators.

An Iranian official said on Tuesday that the unfreezing of Iran’s funds is the last serious sticking point with the United States (US) being resolved through Qatar mediation, Fars agency reported. However, there had been no official confirmation.

Earlier this week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the Strait of Hormuz has to be open “one way or the other,” and finalizing the deal with Iran may take a few days.

FIIs remained net sellers on Tuesday

There seems to be a mixed sentiment of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) toward the Indian stock market the entire month. Overseas investors have been seen turning out net sellers on alternative days, with no clear pattern. On Tuesday, FIIs offloaded their stake worth Rs. 2,407.87 crore after increasing by Rs. 821.75 crore on Monday.

US Dollar wobbles ahead of US PCE Inflation data

The US Dollar trades in a tight range around 99.00 as investors await clear signals from the US and Iran regarding the progress in negotiations toward a permanent deal.

On the domestic front, investors await the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for April, which will be released on Thursday. Investors will pay close attention to the US PCE inflation data to get fresh cues on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.

The US core PCE inflation – which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – is estimated to have grown at an annualized pace of 3.3%, faster than 3.2% in March, with monthly figures growing steadily by 0.3%.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR attracts bids near 20-day EMA

USD/INR trades slightly lower at around 95.70 as of writing. The pair holds a constructive bullish bias as spot remains above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 95.4387.

The EMA’s upward slope hints that the recent advance is still supported, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 56 suggests positive but not overbought momentum, allowing room for further gains if buyers stay in control.

On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA around 95.44, where a break would signal fading short-term momentum and expose a deeper corrective move towards 95.00. Looking up, the pair would attempt to return to the all-time high around 97.00 if it manages to recover above the May 22 high at 96.37.

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British Pound remains close to monthly peak vs Japanese Yen amid Mideast tensions

  • GBP/JPY regains positive traction on Wednesday and draws support from a combination of factors.
  • A modest USD downtick benefits the GBP, while economic concerns due to Iran risks weigh on the JPY.
  • Bulls seem rather unaffected by divergent BoJ-BoE expectations and JPY intervention speculations.

The GBP/JPY cross attracts some dip-buyers following the previous day’s modest pullback from the 214.65-214.70 region, or a fresh monthly peak, and sticks to its modest intraday gains through the early European session on Wednesday. Spot prices currently trade around the 214.35-214.40 area, up 0.10% for the day, and seem poised to appreciate further amid a supportive fundamental backdrop.

The British Pound (GBP) benefits from a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick, which, along with the underlying bearish sentiment surrounding the Japanese Yen (JPY), validates the near-term positive outlook for the GBP/JPY cross. In fact, the JPY has been underperforming against major global currencies amid economic concerns stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict and the continued disruptions to energy supplies.

In fact, shipping traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz remains drastically reduced due to Iran’s restrictions and the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. Furthermore, the US and Iran remain at odds over key issues, including Tehran’s nuclear program and the strategic waterway. This keeps geopolitical risk premium in play and continues to undermine the JPY, despite hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) expectations.

BoJ Deputy Governor Himino Ryozo said on Tuesday that the central bank will continue to raise the policy rate based on economic activity, prices, and financial conditions. Even speculations that Japanese authorities will step in again to prop up the domestic currency do little to impress the JPY bulls, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the GBP/JPY cross is to the upside and backing the case for further gains.

Meanwhile, traders pushed back expectations for the likely timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) to December after the UK Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) unexpectedly slowed to the 2.8% YoY rate in April. Adding to this, the UK political chaos and growing calls for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to step down might hold back the GBP bulls from placing aggressive bets and cap the GBP/JPY cross.

Japanese Yen Price This Month

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this month. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.75%1.15%1.77%1.78%0.73%0.60%0.48%
EUR-0.75%0.38%0.96%0.98%0.00%-0.12%-0.30%
GBP-1.15%-0.38%0.58%0.64%-0.40%-0.52%-0.69%
JPY-1.77%-0.96%-0.58%0.00%-1.03%-1.26%-1.33%
CAD-1.78%-0.98%-0.64%-0.00%-1.04%-1.27%-1.30%
AUD-0.73%0.00%0.40%1.03%1.04%-0.13%-0.30%
NZD-0.60%0.12%0.52%1.26%1.27%0.13%-0.17%
CHF-0.48%0.30%0.69%1.33%1.30%0.30%0.17%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

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AUD/NZD Price Forecast: Retreats below 1.2200 on hawkish RBNZ, weak Australian data

  • AUD/NZD retreats from 1.2286 highs to levels below 1.2200.
  • A hawkish RBNZ and soft Australian CPI figures are hammering the Aussie.
  • The pair approaches the neckline of a Double Top pattern.


The Aussie Dollar (AUD) is dropping sharply against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) on Wednesday. The pair has lost more than 0.8% so far today, hitting session lows at 1.2173, hammered by a combination of a hawkish hold by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and softer-than-expected Australian inflation figures.

The RBNZ left interest rates on hold, as widely expected earlier on Wednesday, but a split monetary policy committee hints at upcoming rate hikes. RBNZ Governor, Anna Breman, who used her casting vote to hold on Wednesday, affirmed that policymakers are concerned about second-round effects on inflation, and that further “OCR increases are likely at coming meetings.”

In Australia, April’s Consumer Prices Index (CPI) showed softer-than-expected inflationary pressures. These figures provide some leeway for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to wait and see for a clearer assessment of the consequences of the war in Iran, and have prompted investors to pare back hopes of an August rate hike.

Technical Indicator: A potential double top warns of a trend shift

Chart Analysis AUD/NZD


AUD/NZD has lost more than 120 pips on Wednesday and is showing signs consistent with a trend shift. A bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart, and a potential double top at the 1.2285 area are clear indicators that bulls are giving up.

The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to the mid-30s, hinting at persistent downside pressure. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned slightly negative, reinforcing the notion that sellers are taking control.

Immediate support is located at the 1.2125-1.2135 area, where May 7, 12, and 21 lows meet the neckline of the mentioned double top pattern. Further down, the April 9 and 14 lows, around 1.2045, would come into focus. The double top’s measured target is right below the 1.2000 psychological level. On the upside, in the unlikely case of a break above 1.2285, the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the April-May rally lies at the 1.2380 area.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.13%-0.04%0.03%0.05%0.30%-0.65%-0.11%
EUR0.13%0.09%0.15%0.17%0.39%-0.52%0.01%
GBP0.04%-0.09%0.04%0.08%0.32%-0.60%-0.06%
JPY-0.03%-0.15%-0.04%0.02%0.25%-0.67%-0.12%
CAD-0.05%-0.17%-0.08%-0.02%0.23%-0.67%-0.14%
AUD-0.30%-0.39%-0.32%-0.25%-0.23%-0.90%-0.35%
NZD0.65%0.52%0.60%0.67%0.67%0.90%0.53%
CHF0.11%-0.01%0.06%0.12%0.14%0.35%-0.53%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/GBP Price Forecasts: Euro remains on the defensive with 0.8640 capping gains

  • EUR/GBP bounces up from lows sub 0.8620, but remains capped below 0.8640.
  • Hawkish comments by ECB’s Lane have failed to support the Euro.
  • In the UK, fading expectations of BoE hikes are weighing on GBP rallies.

The Euro (EUR) is trading higher against the British Pound (GBP) on Tuesday, trimming losses after depreciating more than 1% in a bit more than a week. Euro bulls, however, remain capped below the 0.8640 area so far, which leaves the pair trading within Monday’s range, and keeps its broader bearish trend intact.

Hawkish comments by European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philippe Lane, who endorsed market expectations of upcoming rate hikes earlier on Tuesday, have failed to provide any significant support to the Euro. 

The Pound, on the other hand, remains fairly resilient to the UK’s uncertain political scenario, although the low yield on UK Gilts amid fading hopes of Bank of England (BoE) monetary tightening, as well as a somewhat more cautious market, are keeping Cable’s upside attempts limited.

Technical Analysis: Euro bears remain in control

EUR/GBP Chart Analysis

EUR/GBP trades at 0.8634, with the near-term bearish structure still in place and momentum indicators pointing to moderate bearish pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced up from oversold levels, but remains within negative territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has inched back into positive territory, yet hints at a consolidative, neutral bias, rather than at a trend shift.

Initial resistance lies at a previous support in the 0.8640 area (May 21 low). Further up, the May 20 and May 19 highs, near 0.8665, and the 0.8685 area, respectively, emerge as the next bullish targets.

On the downside, a break below 2026 lows between 0.8605 and 0.8615 would bring the August 2025 low, at the 0.8600 area, and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the May selloff, at 0.8587, into focus.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.05%0.19%0.18%0.03%0.12%0.47%0.28%
EUR-0.05%0.16%0.13%-0.00%0.10%0.44%0.22%
GBP-0.19%-0.16%-0.02%-0.16%-0.06%0.28%0.08%
JPY-0.18%-0.13%0.02%-0.14%-0.03%0.29%0.12%
CAD-0.03%0.00%0.16%0.14%0.12%0.46%0.25%
AUD-0.12%-0.10%0.06%0.03%-0.12%0.35%0.14%
NZD-0.47%-0.44%-0.28%-0.29%-0.46%-0.35%-0.21%
CHF-0.28%-0.22%-0.08%-0.12%-0.25%-0.14%0.21%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/JPY Price Hovers around 185.00, descending channel top

  • EUR/JPY hovers near the upper boundary of the channel around 185.00.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index sits at 49.05 near neutral, signaling that momentum has cooled from prior overbought readings.
  • The initial support appears at the 50-day EMA of 184.86.

EUR/JPY inches lower after posting modest gains in the previous day, trading around 184.90 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross holds a constructive bias as it trades above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), clustered just below 185.00 and suggesting underlying demand on shallow pullbacks.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49.05 sits near neutral, hinting that momentum has cooled from prior overbought readings but without signalling outright downside pressure while price stays supported by these short- and medium-term EMAs.

However, the technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the EUR/JPY cross is positioned on the upper boundary of the descending channel pattern, indicating a potential bullish reversal. A sustained break above the channel would cause an emergence of a bullish bias.

Further advances above the channel would support the EUR/JPY cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

On the downside, the immediate support lies at the 50-day EMA of 184.86, aligned with the nine-day EMA at 184.84. A break below these moving averages would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the three-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, followed by a five-month low of 180.81, which was reached on February 12.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.06%0.08%0.00%0.03%0.00%0.23%0.04%
EUR-0.06%0.06%-0.06%-0.02%-0.02%0.19%-0.02%
GBP-0.08%-0.06%-0.09%-0.06%-0.07%0.15%-0.05%
JPY0.00%0.06%0.09%0.02%0.03%0.22%0.05%
CAD-0.03%0.02%0.06%-0.02%0.01%0.22%0.02%
AUD-0.00%0.02%0.07%-0.03%-0.01%0.21%0.01%
NZD-0.23%-0.19%-0.15%-0.22%-0.22%-0.21%-0.20%
CHF-0.04%0.02%0.05%-0.05%-0.02%-0.01%0.20%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).