Currency Hedger No Comments

The Week Ahead

The Week Ahead:

Risk is back, as we wait for payrolls Stocks are in a buoyant mood as we start August. Futures are in positive territory on Monday, with European indices expected to open higher today, and US futures expected to carry on last week’s rally. The Nasdaq is currently expected to open higher by more than 0.8%. Last week, US stocks made a stunning comeback from Thursday onwards and the gains are expected to continue this week. The question now is, can US indices outperform their European counterparts this week, after falling behind for the past month?

Oil price boost for markets

The 5% drop in the oil price is also helping to boost sentiment. Overnight, President Trump said that negotiations to find a peace deal with Iran could start today, which has led Brent crude to fall back towards $83 per barrel. This will ease inflation fears and could also act as a dampener on bond yields, which rose sharply last week, especially at the long end, where 30-year US Treasury yields jumped to their highest level for 19 years.

Economic data and earnings to spur price action

This is another huge week for financial markets. Firstly, there is a large amount of fresh economic data, including the latest labour market data from the US. 20% of the S&P 500 report earnings this week, including Palantir and SanDisk. SpaceX will also release its first earnings report on Tuesday. The market wants to know if the tech selloff is over, what the yen will do next after unprecedented multilateral intervention to prop up the currency, and US Treasury yields are also in focus. If anyone thought things would be quiet for markets this August, they are only heating up.

3 main themes dominate markets

Last week three main narratives dominated price action as we rounded off July trading. The first was a week of two halves for the tech trade. The first half of the week saw severe tech deleveraging, which included a 17% sell off for South Korea’s Kospi index. Then came tech earnings, and a powerful rally on Thursday that drove Microsoft higher by 16%, and gave hope that the severe drawdown in the AI favourites, that started on 22nd June, could be at an end.

Nasdaq 100

Source: XTB

Microsoft winning the AI race

The rally in Microsoft is symbolic for a few reasons. Last week’s Q2 results showed that Copilot could be a big winner in enterprise AI. It increased the number of subscriptions to 30mn and is part of the Microsoft 365 suite of products. Thus, it is already well integrated into products that hundreds of millions of people use every day, and the growth trajectory is huge for Microsoft, which has now proven that it can monetize its AI investments.

Can chip stocks make a comeback?

Value in the tech space is shifting to some of the big Magnificent 7 names, after a bruising start to the year. However, there could also be a recovery in the chip sector. Several of the Magnificent 7 including Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon are all increasing their AI capex plans for this year, which should give the AI trade another late summer burst of energy.

Did the AI trade reach a bottom?

Due to both of these factors, we could have seen the short-term bottom in the tech sell off as we march further into Q3. The question now, is there a strong rally ahead of us when August and September are traditionally the worst months for stock market returns?

USD/JPY in focus

The second narrative that dominated the market last week was the intervention in the yen. USD/JPY fell more than 4% last week, At the start of the week, the yen is higher by another 0.5% vs the USD and is trading at 156.60. The intervention came after a surprise hold from the Bank of Japan sent the yen sharply lower. The confirmed intervention cost the Japanese authorities $50bn, with another $10bn of support coming from the US and potentially South Korea. This time the intervention worked, but the question is, for how long? FX intervention and manually propping up a currency does not have a strong track record of working in the long term, and this rate of FX intervention is unstainable over longer time periods. Thus, will the market test the resolve of the authorities? Although the yen is off to a strong start on Monday, if it does drop this week then it will put dramatic pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in the coming months to try and naturally boost yen strength.

USD/JPY

Source: XTB

The fallout from the Fed

The third narrative from last week was Treasury yields. Long end yields surged, the US Treasury yield curve steepened sharply, the 2s-10s yield curve is 48bps, while the 2s-30s yield curve is at 98bps, up 18bps last week, which is a huge move in one week. The 10-year yield closed the week at 4.69%, while the 30-year yield rose to its highest level since 2007 and closed the week at 5.23%. The impact on the housing market could be severe and is worth watching in the coming months. Yields are rising in the US even though the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at last week’s meeting. When rates are on pause, it is natural for the yield curve to steepen, after all, inflation is above the target rate. However, it is the unrelenting rise in yields that could unnerve investors. Interetsingly, stress in the long end of the US yield curve did not impact the global equity market rally at the end of last week.

However, if yields do keep surging, then we could see pressure in the equity space. While the Fed’s message was blamed for causing the volatility in the US Treasury curve, we think that this is unfair. Fed chair Kevin Warsh reiterated that the Fed would return US inflation back to the target rate, and there are some who think that he is nearly as hawkish as the three dissenting members of the FOMC who voted to hike rates last week. Interetsingly, Treasury yields are rising at the same time as the Fed is shifting to a potentially hawkish stance when there are signs that inflation is moderating and the labour market is weakening. PCE inflation was weaker than expected for Q2, and the labour market was much weaker than expected in June, we need to see if the pattern reoccurs for July.

However, yields are also rising because there is huge supply of debt. It is not just governments who are funding their activities with debt, the AI infrastructure build out is also increasingly funded by debt. When supply outstrips demand, yields have to rise to attract investors. Thus, we may not see bond yields moderate any time soon. The key questions that investors are asking as we start a new week, where will the oil price go next? Have tech stocks, specifically chip stocks, bottomed out, and will a sell off in long end Treasury yields hurt equities? Below, we look at the two main events to watch in the week ahead:

1, Non Farm Payrolls

While the focus on Monday is on an improving geopolitical backdrop and a falling oil price, the focus as we move through the week will be the US Non Fram Payrolls report, which will be another test of the resilience of the US labour market. This is a pivotal release for financial markets, and there are 4 things in this report that are worth watching. These include the payrolls number, the unemployment rate, wage growth and the labour force participation rate. This data will help to define the future of Fed policy, and could be a major market-moving event, especially since the Fed is no longer offering forward guidance. The Fed is particularly worried about demand side inflation fears and a wage-price spiral, so the wage data is worth watching closely. Economists currently expect a 91k increase in payrolls and for the unemployment rate to tick up a notch to 4.3%. If we get a major surprise in the data then USD/JPY is worth watching closely to see if an upside surprise weighs on the yen .

2, Earnings

This is a massive week for earnings reports on both sides of the Atlantic. Tech earnings will be watched closely after strong reports for Microsoft and Amazon helped to spur a major rally. Apple did not impress with last week’s report, and its stock price slumped more than 7% on Friday, although it did show signs of stabilization overnight. Palantir, SpaceX and SanDisk are the highlights in the US earnings calendar for this week. SpaceX’s share price dropped sharply last week and fell 3% on Friday. It closed the week at a record low below $110. The question now is, can the earnings report, especially forecasts of future revenue, help the stock price to recover?

SpaceX

Source: XTB

Currency Hedger No Comments

GBP/USD Price At make or a break around 1.3500

  • GBP/USD trades lower to near 1.3470 as the British Pound faces selling pressure.
  • The BoE left interest rates unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday.
  • Market sentiment turns risk-on as oil prices fall significantly.

The British Pound (GBP) underperforms its major currency peers, trading 0.1% lower at around 1.3470 against the US Dollar (USD) during the early European trading session on Monday. The GBP/USD declines as traders reconsider Bank of England (BoE) interest rate expectations, following the monetary policy announcement on Thursday.

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.09%0.04%-0.66%0.07%-0.15%-0.11%0.11%
EUR0.09%0.12%-0.60%0.16%-0.07%0.02%0.16%
GBP-0.04%-0.12%-0.67%0.01%-0.20%-0.09%0.06%
JPY0.66%0.60%0.67%0.66%0.42%0.53%0.65%
CAD-0.07%-0.16%-0.01%-0.66%-0.23%-0.13%-0.01%
AUD0.15%0.07%0.20%-0.42%0.23%0.09%0.29%
NZD0.11%-0.02%0.09%-0.53%0.13%-0.09%0.17%
CHF-0.11%-0.16%-0.06%-0.65%0.01%-0.29%-0.17%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

Analysts at Deutsche Bank stressed that the BoE was not “edging towards a rate hike,” a message that prompted a swift reassessment in market pricing. They note that investors “dialed back expectations for BoE hikes,” with the implied probability of a September move dropping from 60% to 30%. In parallel, Deutsche Bank highlights that “31bps of hikes [were] priced by year-end (-11.4bps on the day),” underscoring how the latest policy signals have tempered the market’s conviction in further tightening this year.

Last week, the BoE left interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, with a 6-3 majority, and stated that interest rate hikes would be needed if Middle East risks persist and second-round effects of inflation start emerging.

However, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey signaled in the press conference that the current state of inflation is not as bad as it thought. “Encouraging that CPI is below where we thought it would be,” Bailey said.

Meanwhile, the market sentiment is favorable for riskier assets, as oil prices have declined significantly due to a renewed ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran. As of writing, S&P 500 futures are up 0.6% to near 7,535, reflecting a risk-on mood.

GBP/USD technical analysis

GBP/USD trades lower at around 1.3475, but reflects a bullish near-term bias as it holds above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 1.3389. The pair is at a critical level of 1.3470 where it could extend the advance or face a bearish reversal.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59 keeps a positive bias without yet signaling overbought conditions on the daily chart.

On the downside, the 20-day EMA around 1.3389 should let sellers press the pair lower. Looking up, the psychological level of 1.3500 is the key hurdle for British Pound bulls; a decisive break above that would improve the odds of further upside towards the July high at 1.3558.

Currency Hedger No Comments

EUR/USD Price – Gains traction above 1.1500, while remaining constrained below 100-day SMA

  • EUR/USD gains ground to around 1.1535 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
  • The bearish tone of the major pair prevails under the 100-day SMA. 
  • The initial support level is seen at 1.1530; the immediate resistance level to watch is 1.1570. 

The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory near 1.1535 during the early European trading hours on Monday, bolstered by improved risk sentiment. The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) after reports that US President Donald Trump had called off an attack on Iran and talks between the two sides would happen on Monday. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations. 

Traders brace for the German Retail Sales data for June, which is due later on Monday. If the reports come in weaker than expected, this could drag the shared currency lower. On the US docket, the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data will be published. 

Chart Analysis EUR/USD

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1533. The pair remains capped in the near term as spot holds below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1569, keeping the broader tone heavy despite the latest bounce. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 62.5 shows firm positive momentum, but with price still under the key trend average, this strength merely hints at a corrective rebound within a broader bearish backdrop.

On the downside, immediate support is aligned with the upper Bollinger Band at 1.1529, with the 20-day SMA middle band at 1.1430 and the lower band near 1.1331 marking deeper cushions if selling resumes. On the topside, a daily close above the 100-day SMA at 1.1569 would be needed to ease bearish pressure and open the way for a more sustained recovery toward higher levels.

Euro briefly lifted by French CPI as ECB commentary stays muted

Analysts at Scotiabank note that the Euro received “a modest lift” earlier in the session after French CPI data “came in well above expectations,” but stress that the support quickly faded as “the impact was short-lived as broader themes took hold.” They add that “comments from the ECB have been limited and the speaking calendar is empty over the next week or so,” leaving the currency largely to trade on prevailing macro drivers rather than fresh policy signals.

Currency Hedger No Comments

EUR/JPY Price – Breaks below 179.50 as bearish bias prevails

  • EUR/JPY may retest initial support at its eight-month low of 179.37.
  • With the 14-day Relative Strength Index at 27.71, the decline’s pace may soon moderate.
  • The currency cross could rise toward its nine-day EMA at 184.07.

EUR/JPY extends its gains for the third successive day, trading around 179.40 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross is extending a bearish near-term tone as price holds beneath both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The short-term EMA remains below the longer 50-period EMA, reinforcing downside pressure, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator at 27.71 slips into oversold territory, hinting that while sellers are in control, the pace of the decline could soon moderate.

The EUR/JPY cross may retest the initial support at the eight-month low of 179.37, reached on August 3. Further support lies at the nine-month low of 175.70.

On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross rises toward the nine-day EMA at 184.07, followed by 185.02. A break above these moving averages would cause a bullish shift and support the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart
Currency Hedger No Comments

Chart of The Day – EUR/USD after the Fed meeting. The market scales back rate hike expectations

Friday’s session on EURUSD is focused on the market’s continued assessment of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting and the latest macroeconomic data from the United States. The market is increasingly assuming that the Fed will not rush into further rate hikes, although recent data still shows that the US economy remains relatively resilient. Wednesday’s Fed decision did not bring any change in interest rates, but the communication from the central bank was more important than the decision itself. Kevin Warsh stressed that the Fed needs to remain cautious and cannot declare victory over inflation too quickly. At the same time, the lack of a clear signal pointing towards the need for further policy tightening was interpreted by the market as confirmation that the current hiking cycle may be close to an end. Before the meeting, market pricing suggested the possibility of two more rate hikes this year. This scenario is now significantly less likely, which removes one of the key sources of support for the US dollar. Another factor affecting the US currency was yesterday’s macroeconomic data. US GDP growth is slowing, PCE inflation is gradually declining, although it remains elevated, while the labour market continues to show strong resilience. Today’s CPI inflation release from the euro area will be another important signal for future European Central Bank decisions. EURUSD is currently caught between two opposing narratives. On one side, reduced expectations for further Fed rate hikes are weighing on the dollar. On the other hand, the US economy continues to perform relatively well, allowing the Fed to maintain a restrictive stance. On the euro side, the market is waiting for confirmation that inflation in Europe will continue to decline and that the ECB will have room to begin easing monetary policy.

Source: xStation5

Factors currently shaping EURUSD

Fed moves closer to the end of the hiking cycle

The most important event for the currency market in recent days was the Federal Reserve meeting. The decision to leave interest rates unchanged was largely expected, which is why the main focus was placed on the central bank’s communication. Kevin Warsh did not reinforce expectations of further interest rate hikes. The Fed continues to emphasise the need for caution in its fight against inflation, but at the same time it is not signalling that additional increases in borrowing costs are currently the base-case scenario. This marks a significant shift compared with the situation before the meeting. Previously, the market was pricing in the possibility of further rate increases as inflation remained elevated and the US economy continued to show considerable resilience. Those expectations have now been clearly reduced. For the dollar, this means a loss of some support from the prospect of further interest rate increases. However, this does not automatically signal the beginning of a sustained downward trend for the US currency. The Fed will continue to react to incoming data, and persistent inflation leaves the possibility of keeping rates higher for longer.

US data points to a slowdown, but the economy remains resilient

The latest macroeconomic releases paint an increasingly complex picture of the US economy. GDP growth is gradually slowing, which reflects the impact of previous rate hikes and tighter financial conditions. Slower economic momentum reduces the scope for further monetary tightening. At the same time, PCE inflation, one of the most important indicators for the Federal Reserve, remains above levels considered consistent with the central bank’s target. However, the direction of travel is positive, as price pressures are gradually easing. The strongest argument for continued Fed caution remains the labour market. Despite high interest rates, employment conditions remain relatively strong, and consumer spending in the US continues to show resilience. For the dollar, this creates a mixed picture. Slower growth and declining inflation do not support the case for another hiking cycle, but economic resilience allows the Fed to maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period.

Eurozone inflation as an important test for the ECB

On the euro side, the key event remains today’s CPI inflation release from the euro area. The market will focus not only on the inflation level itself, but also on the pace of price moderation. For the ECB, the key question is whether inflation is declining quickly enough to allow the central bank to begin easing monetary policy in the future. If the data show that inflation remains persistent, particularly in the services sector, this could reduce expectations for rapid rate cuts in Europe. Such a scenario would provide support for the euro. On the other hand, a stronger decline in inflation would increase expectations that the ECB has greater room to lower interest rates. In that case, the advantage from the interest rate differential could shift back in favour of the dollar.

Bond yields remain crucial for the dollar

Despite the change in expectations surrounding the Fed, US bond yields remain a very important factor for the currency market. A decline in inflation alone does not necessarily mean a lasting weakening of the dollar. If the Fed keeps interest rates at elevated levels for longer, dollar-denominated assets may continue to remain attractive. For this reason, the market is currently focused not only on economic data itself, but also on how central banks respond to those developments. The key issue will be how quickly expectations for future Fed and ECB policy paths change.

EURUSD waits for the next catalyst

The current situation on EURUSD reflects a clash between two different scenarios. The Fed has signalled that the room for further rate hikes is becoming limited, which is negative for the dollar. At the same time, the US economy remains relatively resilient, and the labour market does not yet provide a strong argument for rapid rate cuts. For the euro, inflation data and future ECB decisions will remain crucial. If inflation in Europe declines more slowly than the market expects, the euro could receive support. If the disinflation process accelerates, pressure on the common currency could increase. EURUSD therefore remains primarily a reflection of differences in monetary policy expectations. For the market, the key issue is no longer only the current inflation level, but which central bank will have more room to maintain a restrictive policy stance for longer.

Key takeaways

  • The Fed left interest rates unchanged, and the lack of a clear signal for further tightening reduced expectations of additional rate hikes.
  • The market has significantly lowered the pricing of further rate increases in the US.
  • US data point to slower economic growth and gradually easing inflation, but the labour market remains strong.
  • Today’s eurozone CPI inflation data will be an important signal for future ECB decisions.
  • The direction of EURUSD will largely depend on whether the Fed’s stance changes faster or whether the ECB will be forced to maintain higher interest rates for longer.
Currency Hedger No Comments

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Weakens below 1.3450 while technical uptrend stays intact

  • GBP/USD loses momentum to near 1.3445 in Friday’s early European session. 
  • Iranian official said the US will ‘pay the price’ for killing Iranian civilians.
  • The constructive outlook of the pair remains intact above the 100-day SMA, with bullish RSI momentum. 
  • The initial support level to watch is 1.3400; the first upside barrier is located at 1.3515. 

The GBP/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.3445 during the early European trading hours on Friday. Heightened Middle East tensions and rising global oil prices provide some support to a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) against the British Pound (GBP). The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be published later on Friday. 

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf on Thursday denounced the US attack on civilian homes on Qeshm Island, describing it as a continuation of American crimes in the southern Iranian cities of Minab and Lamerd. Earlier on Thursday, the US launched missile strikes across southern Iran, including Qeshm Island as well as parts of Bushehr, Fars and Khuzestan provinces.

Financial markets have priced in a more than 90% chance of the Bank of England (BoE) keeping borrowing costs on hold, with the outside chance of a hike. Traders expect a rise in borrowing costs to 4.0% before the end of the year.

BoE seen on hold as softer UK inflation eases pressure

Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman note that the Bank of England is “widely expected to keep the policy rate at 3.75% for a fifth straight meeting,” arguing that a “less worrisome UK inflation backdrop gives the BoE room to stand pat.” In their view, the recent moderation in price pressures allows policymakers to maintain the current stance without rushing to adjust rates, reinforcing expectations for an extended pause in the tightening cycle.

Chart Analysis GBP/USD

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, GBP/USD holds a modest bullish bias as spot remains above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band around, suggesting underlying dip-buying interest after recent consolidation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 57 stays in positive but not overbought territory, hinting that upside momentum is constructive yet still measured.

On the downside, immediate support is seen around the 100-day SMA at 1.3400, reinforced by the nearby Bollinger middle band at roughly 1.3390, while a deeper cushion emerges at the lower Bollinger band near 1.3265 should sellers regain control. On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the upper Bollinger band around 1.3515; a sustained break above this cap would open the door for the July 15 high of 1.3558. 

Currency Hedger No Comments

EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Euro is testing trendline support at 0.8555

  • EUR/GBP stalls at 0.8555 after pulling back from four-week highs at 0.8585.
  • A divided BoE and Governor Bailey’s comments hinting at a conditional rate hike boosted the Pound’s recovery on Thursday.
  • Euro bears are testing the base of the last two weeks’ ascending channel.

The Euro (EUR) is trading practically flat against the British Pound (GBP) on Friday, as bears kept testing the base of the ascending trendline from mid-July highs, around 0.8555, following Thursday’s reversal from 0.8585 highs. The Pound pared some losses on Thursday as the Bank of England (BoE) hinted at interest rate hikes if the war in Iran escalates.

The BoE left its Bank Rate on hold at 3.75%, as widely expected on Thursday, but the three hawkish dissenters within the committee and Governor Bailey’s openness to tighten monetary policy if the Middle East conflict pushes Oil prices beyond $100 provided a fresh impulse to a weakening Pound.

In Europe, data released on Thursday revealed that the German preliminary Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) accelerated to a 2.8% year-on-year (YoY) rate from 2.4% in June. These figures followed strong preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures in Germany and the Eurozone, which add to the case for a European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike in September and keep Euro dips limited.

Technical Analysis: Euro bulls have run out of steam

Chart Analysis EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP trades at 0.8560 with price action contained within an upward-sloping channel, but with momentum indicators hinting at a faltering bullish traction. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) hovers just above the neutral 50 line, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) dips further within negative levels, suggesting waning momentum although not yet a decisive trend shift.

Sellers would have to breach the mentioned channel base, at 0.8555, and Wednesday’s low at 0.8545 to confirm a bearish reversal and shift the focus to the July 23 and 25 lows around 0.8530.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at Thursday’s high of 0.8586, ahead of the channel top, near 0.8595, and the support area of late June, between 0.8600 and 0.8605, which is likely to act as resistance now.

Currency Hedger No Comments

EUR/USD Price Weakens to near 1.1500 as 100-day SMA caps upside

  • EUR/USD weakens to near 1.1500 in Friday’s early European session. 
  • The pair keeps a bearish vibe in the near term under the 100-day SMA. 
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 1.1510; the initial support level is seen at 1.1425.

The EUR/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.1500 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The Euro (EUR) softens against the US Dollar (USD) as escalating tensions in the Middle East weigh on riskier assets. 

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Thursday that the United States (US) will pay the price for killing Iranian civilians, per the Guardian. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Thursday that it targeted US bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain after US forces bombed a building on Iran’s Qeshm Island. The Iranian military added that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed and that the “aggressor will be punished.”

Stronger-than-expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Eurozone and Germany have reinforced expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) could deliver a second interest rate hike this year, potentially as soon as September. This, in turn, might help limit the shared currency’s losses in the near term. 

Eurozone recovery underpins expectations for September ECB hike

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad underscores that the recent improvement in Eurozone data is strengthening the policy case for further tightening. He notes that “the recovery in Eurozone economic activity and above target inflation reinforces the case for the ECB to resume raising rates in September,” suggesting that the combination of firmer growth and persistent price pressures keeps the central bank on track for another move after its current pause.

Chart Analysis EUR/USD

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD maintains negative outlook under 100-day SMA

In the daily chart, EUR/USD remains capped in the near term, as spot holds below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and presses against the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting upside attempts are meeting supply. The Bollinger midline underpins the structure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 59 hints at improving but not yet overbought momentum within an overall constrained backdrop.

On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned at the upper Bollinger Band around 1.1510, with the 100-day SMA at 1.1570 acting as the next significant barrier that bulls would need to reclaim to ease the broader bearish cap. 

On the downside, initial support is seen at the daily mid-Bollinger band near 1.1425, ahead of the lower Bollinger Band around 1.1340, where a break would likely reinforce downside pressure and reopen the path toward lower lows.