AUD/JPY weakens to around 112.95 in Monday’s early European session.
The cross keeps bullish vibe above the 100-day EMA, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out in near term.
The immediate resistance level emerges at 113.40; the initial support level is seen at 112.00.
The AUD/JPY cross loses ground near 112.95 during the early European session on Monday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) softens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as uncertainty surrounding Middle East tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz boosts safe-haven assets.
US President Donald Trump announced the US will begin guiding ships through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday, per CNN. Meanwhile, Iranian official Ebrahim Azizi warned that the plan is a violation of the ceasefire.
On the other hand, markets expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to deliver a third straight interest rate hike on Tuesday. The primary driver is a significant jump in headline inflation in March, fueled by global energy shocks and Middle East tensions.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, AUD/JPY maintains a constructive bullish bias as spot holds well above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), keeping the broader uptrend intact despite the latest pullback from recent highs. Price is also trading above the lower Bollinger Band, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 50.8 has eased back to neutral territory, hinting at a consolidation phase rather than an outright reversal.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the 20-day Bollinger middle band at 113.40. A sustained break above this pivot would expose the April 28 high of 114.72, en route to the upper Bollinger band near 115.18 as the next bullish target. On the downside, immediate support is seen around the 112.00 psychological level, followed by the lower Bollinger band at 111.65; a deeper correction towards the 100-day EMA at 109.37 would still be consistent with a broader bullish structure while offering a potentially stronger demand zone.
Bitcoin extends gains on Monday after taking a breather in the previous week.
Ethereum approaches the 200-day EMA, a decisive close above this level could open the door for an upside move.
XRP hovers near the $1.40 resistance zone, a breakout above this barrier may trigger a fresh rally.
Bitcoin (BTC) pushes higher on Monday, trading above $80,000 and resuming its uptrend after a brief consolidation phase last week. Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) follow BTC’s footsteps and extend gains at the start of the week, nearing their key resistance zones, where a breakout suggests a fresh rally ahead.
Bitcoin hits $80,000
Bitcoin price is trading at $80,161 on Monday, retaining a constructive bias as it holds above a dense support band defined by the 50% retracement at $78,962 (drawn from the January high to the February low) and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $75,903. The shorter-term 50-day EMA around $74,448 reinforces the underlying uptrend.
Momentum remains firm, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart hovers in bullish territory near 66, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned higher and returned to positive territory, hinting that buyers still control the near-term tone despite the proximity to major overhead barriers.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 200-day EMA around $81,912, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $83,437 and a more prominent horizontal cap near $84,410; a daily close above this cluster would open the way toward the January highs around $97,924.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the psychological $80,000 handle, with the 50% retracement at $78,962 as the first substantive floor; a deeper pullback would expose a broader demand area between the 100-day EMA at $75,903, the prior channel top near $75,680, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge while the broader bullish structure remains intact.
Ethereum could extend gains if it closes above the 50-day EMA
Ethereum is trading at $2,370 on Monday, maintaining a constructive near-term bias as price holds above the 50-day and 100-day EMA at roughly $2,256 and $2,344, respectively. ETH, however, is approaching a dense Fibonacci barrier, with the 38.2% retracement at $2,380 capping the immediate topside, while higher retracements and the 200-day EMA, clustered around $2,575, reinforce broader overhead supply.
A rising RSI on the daily chart near 58 suggests firm but not overstretched bullish momentum, while the negative yet improving MACD histogram hints that downside pressure is fading within this developing up-leg.
On the upside, initial resistance is located at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $2,380, beyond which the $2,575 area forms a critical confluence zone, combining the 50% retracement at $2,575 with the 200-day EMA at $2,575; a daily close above this cluster would open the way toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $2,770.
On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 100-day EMA at $2,344, followed by the 50-day EMA at $2,256, while the upper boundary of the horizontal parallel channel around $2,148 and the 23.6% retracement at $2,138 guard the broader bullish structure, with only a drop toward the channel floor near $1,747 threatening the medium-term uptrend.
XRP is near key resistance at $1.40
XRP price is trading at $1.41 on Monday, is hovering just above the 50-day EMA at $1.40, which lends initial trend support, but it remains well below the 100-day EMA at 1.50 and the broader downward parallel channel cap near $1.54, keeping the medium-term tone capped within a broader corrective structure.
The RSI at 53 suggests mildly positive but not overstretched momentum, while the MACD has slipped slightly into negative territory, hinting that upside traction may be fading as price consolidates under higher EMAs.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 100-day EMA around $1.50, followed by the upper boundary of the descending channel near $1.55; a sustained break above these would be needed to challenge the 200-day EMA at $1.74 and the more distant horizontal barrier at $1.90.
On the downside, the 50-day EMA at $1.40 underpins the market as first support, ahead of the horizontal floor at $1.30, while the channel base down at $0.73 marks the broader structural support zone in the event of a deeper pullback.
USD/INR steadies as traders assess progress in US–Iran talks amid lingering geopolitical uncertainty.
Indian Rupee may gain support from improved sentiment and easing oil prices.
Focus is on the four-state election results, with Narendra Modi’s party projected to win two, boosting his standing.
USD/INR loses ground after registering modest gains in the previous trading day, hovering around 94.90 during the Asian hours on Monday. Traders evaluate progress in the United States (US)–Iran peace negotiations. HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be eyed later in the day.
The Indian Rupee (INR) may find some support from improved market sentiment as mediation efforts to end the war have continued, as the conflict in Iran enters its third month. Iran said it is reviewing Washington’s response to its latest 14-point proposal, boosting optimism for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. Trump suggested that Tehran’s latest peace proposal may fall short of expectations, Bloomberg reported Sunday.
The INR may also face fewer challenges as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price remains in the negative territory for the third successive day, trading around $98.30 per barrel at the time of writing. It is important to note that India is a major oil importer, and cheaper oil reduces US Dollar demand by oil companies.
Crude oil prices struggled after a Sunday report by Bloomberg indicated that Donald Trump said the United States would begin guiding neutral ships trapped in the Persian Gulf out through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday. The initiative is intended to help civilian vessels from non-aligned countries exit the contested waterway and resume normal operations.
The Rupee remains under sustained pressure, caught in a feedback loop of high oil prices that have dented sentiment, driven heavier importer hedging, and sustained dollar demand from refiners.
Elevated crude has also sidelined foreign investors from Indian equities. Portfolio outflows neared about $6.5 billion in April, taking cumulative 2026 withdrawals to about $20.6 billion, exceeding all of 2025 and adding to dollar demand, according to Reuters.
Indian equities opened higher on Monday, aided by softer oil prices, while key state election results remain in focus. Vote counting began across four major states, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party projected to win two, boosting his standing midway through his third term.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR eyes 95.00 near fresh record highs
USD/INR trades around 94.90 at the time of writing on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates an ongoing neutral bias as the pair remains within the rectangular channel.
However, the USD/INR pair holds above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating a bullish near-term bias. The alignment of shorter- over longer-dated EMAs hints at sustained upside pressure, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 64 stays in bullish territory without yet signaling extreme overbought conditions.
The USD/INR pair may retest the upper boundary of the rectangle, aligned with the all-time high of 95.33, which was recorded on April 30. On the downside, the initial support lies at the nine-day EMA of 94.48. A break below the short-term average would lead the pair to test the 50-day EMA at 93.10, followed by the lower rectangle boundary around 92.50 and a seven-week low of 92.14.
USD/INR: Daily Chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Indian Rupee.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
INR
USD
-0.10%
-0.09%
-0.33%
-0.01%
-0.13%
-0.37%
0.03%
EUR
0.10%
-0.03%
-0.24%
0.09%
0.02%
-0.27%
0.00%
GBP
0.09%
0.03%
-0.23%
0.11%
0.00%
-0.25%
0.19%
JPY
0.33%
0.24%
0.23%
0.29%
0.15%
-0.09%
0.21%
CAD
0.01%
-0.09%
-0.11%
-0.29%
-0.14%
-0.39%
-0.09%
AUD
0.13%
-0.02%
-0.01%
-0.15%
0.14%
-0.28%
0.02%
NZD
0.37%
0.27%
0.25%
0.09%
0.39%
0.28%
0.44%
INR
-0.03%
0.00%
-0.19%
-0.21%
0.09%
-0.02%
-0.44%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
AUD/USD is seen consolidating its recent strong gains amid a combination of diverging forces.
Hawkish RBA bets continue to underpin the Aussie, while rising US-Iran tensions cap the upside.
Bulls also seem hesitant and await the crucial RBA rate decision on Tuesday for a fresh impetus.
The AUD/USD pair enters a bullish consolidation phase at the start of a new week and holds steady above the 0.7200 mark, near its highest level since June 2022, touched on Friday. Bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hike interest rates at the upcoming policy meeting on Tuesday continue to underpin the Aussie. However, rising US-Iran tensions benefit the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for spot prices ahead of the key central bank event.
Against the backdrop of the recent bounce from the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, Friday’s breakout and close above the 0.7200 horizontal barrier were seen as a key trigger for the AUD/USD bulls. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 62 suggests firm positive momentum without yet entering overbought territory. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains slightly positive, hinting that upside pressure is intact.
The technical setup backs the case for an extension of the AUD/USD pair’s recent move higher from the late-March swing low. Hence, any corrective pullback is more likely to attract buyers and remain limited in the near term. The 100-period EMA around 0.7137 might continue to offer immediate support, which, if broken decisively, would signal fading bullish control and open the way for a deeper correction.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to a two-week low near the 98.00 price zone on Friday, extending the losses seen the previous day and ending a week in which the world’s most important central banks confirmed a hawkish shift due to rising inflation pressures. Next week, traders’ attention will remain focused on any development regarding potential negotiations between the US and Iran, as well as a streak of US employment data that will culminate with Nonfarm Payrolls.
The economic calendar was light on Friday as many markets around the world were closed due to the Labor Day holiday. Still, in the US, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 52.7, below the expected 53.
In the Middle East, the Islamic Republic of Iran submitted its latest negotiating proposal to Pakistan, acting as the mediator in talks with the United States. It was not immediately clear what was included in the new proposal, but Trump said that he can’t agree to the current demands from Tehran: “Iran wants to make a deal, but I’m not satisfied,” he said.
Earlier in the day, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, discussed the latest initiatives of the Islamic Republic to end the war during phone calls with counterparts from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Iraq, and Azerbaijan, according to a ministry statement.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.20%
-0.12%
0.09%
-0.03%
-0.25%
-0.15%
-0.27%
EUR
0.20%
0.07%
0.28%
0.15%
-0.04%
0.03%
-0.07%
GBP
0.12%
-0.07%
0.21%
0.09%
-0.12%
-0.04%
-0.12%
JPY
-0.09%
-0.28%
-0.21%
-0.12%
-0.34%
-0.28%
-0.36%
CAD
0.03%
-0.15%
-0.09%
0.12%
-0.23%
-0.14%
-0.22%
AUD
0.25%
0.04%
0.12%
0.34%
0.23%
0.08%
0.00%
NZD
0.15%
-0.03%
0.04%
0.28%
0.14%
-0.08%
-0.09%
CHF
0.27%
0.07%
0.12%
0.36%
0.22%
0.00%
0.09%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD rose to an almost two-week high near the 1.1780 level. The pair keeps the rally going for a second straight day after the European Central Bank (ECB) left rates unchanged in Thursday’s meeting. US President Donald Trump announced on Friday that tariffs on the European Union’s cars and trucks would rise to 25% from the current 15%, reviving trade war fears.
GBP/USD rose to the 1.3630 price region. The rise comes as investors move away from the US Dollar (USD) amid an improved risk mood after Iran offered to reach out to the US through Pakistan, aiming to finalize the peace deal once and for all.
USD/JPY steadied after dropping from 160.00 to 156.60 following the Japanese government’s intervention on Thursday. Data released on Friday showed the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April ex Fresh Food at 1.9%, down from last month’s 2.3%. The headline measure was released at 1.5%, up slightly from last month’s 1.4%.
AUD/USD ticked up towards the 0.7220 price zone as traders adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy decision scheduled for next Tuesday. Earlier in the day, the Producer Price Index (PPI) was at 3%, below last month’s 3.5%.
Gold trades broadly unchanged at the $4,630 level as investors focus on riskier positions over the week’s end.
WTI West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell near the $98.50 per barrel amid Iran’s Pakistan-driven US peace deal.
Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon
Monday, May 4:
Eurogroup Meeting
ECB Cipollone speaks
Fed Williams speaks
ECB Nagel speaks
Tuesday, May 5:
RBA Press Conference
ECB De Guindos speaks
ECB President Lagarde speaks
Fed Bowman speaks
ECB Lane speaks
Fed Barr speaks
Wednesday, May 6:
ECB Lane speaks
ECB Cipollone speaks
Fed Musalem speaks
Fed Goolsbee speaks
Fed Hammack speaks
Thursday, May 7:
ECB De Guindos speaks
ECB Elderson speaks
ECB Lane speaks
ECB Schnabel speaks
Fed Hammack speaks
Fed Williams speaks
Friday, May 8:
ECB President Lagarde speaks
ECB De Guindos speaks
Fed Cook speaks
ECB Cipollone speaks
ECB Schnabel speaks
ECB Nagel speaks
Fed Bowman speaks
Fed Goolsbee speaks
Fed Waller speaks
Central banks’ meetings and upcoming data releases to shape markets
Monday, May 4:
Australian TD-MI Inflation Gauge April YoY
Australian Building Permits March MoM
Germany, France, Italy, Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI April
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence May
US Factory Orders March MoM
Australian S&P PMIs April
Tuesday, May 5:
Australian RBA Interest Rate Decision
Australian RBA Monetary Policy Statement
Australian RBA Rate Statement
Chinese Consumer Price Index April MoM YoY
US S&P PMIS April
US ISM Services PMIS
US JOLTS Job Openings March
US New Home Sales February and March MoM
New Zealand Employment data
Wednesday, May 6:
Chinese Caixin Services PMI April
Germany, France, Italy, Eurozone HCOB Services PMI April
Trump threatens to raise EU auto tariffs to 25% from 15%, weighing on the EUR/USD pair.
Trump says he isn’t happy about the latest proposal sent by Tehran, adding uncertainty and fueling safe-haven demand for the USD.
USD rebounds from two-week lows amid intensifying geopolitical risks.
The EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.1730 level on Friday’s late American session, trimming almost all its intraday gains, after United States (US) President Donald Trump threatened to raise the tariff rate on European Union (EU) cars and trucks from 15% to 25% and said he isn’t happy with the latest proposal sent by Iran to end the war.
Iran passed a peace talks offer through Pakistan to try and strike a deal with the US, though the details and demands from Tehran remain unknown. US President Trump claimed that “we made strides in talks with Iran, but I’m not sure we’re going to get to a deal,” and added that he is not satisfied with the current proposal because Iran is asking for things “he is not comfortable agreeing with”.
When asked about potential missile strikes on Iran, US President Trump said: “Why would I tell you that?”, adding to the uncertainty. The heightened uncertainty over the fate of the latest proposal has supported the US Dollar (USD) as a safe haven, whichhas recovered from a two-week low.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the four-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1730, hovering between nearby moving averages and maintaining a broadly neutral bias. The pair holds above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1713, which lends modest downside support, but it remains capped by the 100-period SMA at 1.1736 and the horizontal barrier at 1.1744. The Relative Strength Index around 53 hints at mildly positive momentum, yet the proximity of overhead levels suggests limited upside unless buyers can force a sustained break higher.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 100-period SMA at 1.1736, followed by the horizontal hurdle at 1.1744. A clearance of these levels would open the way toward 1.1757 and then 1.1785. On the downside, initial support is seen at the nearby horizontal floor at 1.1729, with the 20-period SMA at 1.1713 reinforcing the underlying demand area. A break below this latter level would expose a deeper corrective phase in the short term.
Iran ceasefire talks stalled over the weekend, with the US blockade and the Strait of Hormuz closure both in place.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI held at 52.7 in April, missing the 53.0 consensus, while the Prices Paid index surged to 84.6.
Canada’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI jumped to 53.3 in April from 50.0 in March, returning the sector to expansion.
USD/CAD edged higher by less than 0.1% on Friday, recovering from an early-session low near 1.3560 to trade around 1.3590. The pair has shed roughly 0.6% on the week after rolling over from the 1.3700 area mid-week, and momentum has appeared sluggish close to 1.3580 as a cluster of small-bodied candles points to indecision.
The US-Iran conflict and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant drivers, keeping crude oil prices elevated and offering tailwinds to the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar. Ceasefire talks stalled over the weekend with both sides hardening their positions, and the US naval blockade of Iranian ports stays in place despite intermittent administration claims of progress that markets have largely discounted.
The US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) held at 52.7 in April, narrowly missing the 53.0 consensus, while the Employment Index slumped to 46.4 and the Prices Paid component surged to 84.6, the highest reading in over four years. Canada’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI jumped to 53.3 from 50.0 in March, returning the sector to expansion. Markets now look ahead to next Friday’s heavy calendar, headlined by US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), with consensus pointing to 73K versus 178K previously, and Canadian employment data with the unemployment rate seen unchanged at 6.7%.
USD/CAD 5-minute chart
Technical Analysis
In the five-minute chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.3587, hovering just above the daily open at 1.3580, which now acts as immediate intraday support. The pair has lost upside momentum after earlier gains, while the downward sloping resistance trend line drawn from 1.3680 continues to cap the broader recovery potential. The latest Stochastic RSI reading has retreated toward lower levels, hinting at fading bullish pressure and keeping the near-term tone broadly neutral while price oscillates around the opening level.
On the downside, a clear break back below the 1.3580 daily open would expose softer intraday levels and suggest that sellers are regaining control in the very short term. On the topside, the next meaningful barrier is the descending resistance line coming from 1.3680, and only a sustained move toward that region and a subsequent break higher would start to undermine the broader corrective bias and open the way for a more convincing upside extension.
In the one-hour chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.3589, holding a mildly bearish near-term tone as it remains capped by a downward-sloping trend-line resistance coming in around 1.3680. The lack of nearby moving averages in the dataset keeps the focus on this structural barrier, while the Stochastic RSI has pushed into elevated territory above 70 recently, hinting that upside attempts could face exhaustion below the mentioned trend line.
On the topside, the immediate obstacle is the descending trend-line resistance at 1.3680, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish pressure and open the way to a stronger recovery. With no clearly defined intraday supports in the provided data, any pullback from current levels would likely see traders looking to prior session lows and intraday swing points below 1.3589 for initial demand, while an inability to challenge 1.3680 would keep the pair vulnerable to further downside probing.
AUD/USD trades near range highs within 0.7100–0.7200 consolidation band.
RSI above 50 supports bullish momentum and potential breakout scenario.
Break above 0.7250 targets 0.7282 and 0.7300 resistance levels.
AUD/USD holds to minimal gains of 0.10% late in the North American session, yet poised to finish the week up 0.84%. At the time of writing, the pair trades above 0.7200 as the ‘bullish engulfing’ chart pattern caps the Aussie on the downside.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD trades near the top of a 100-pip consolidation range between 0.7100 and 0.7200, with traders awaiting fresh catalysts. Momentum is bullish as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting above its neutral level.
On the upside, the first resistance for AUD/USD is the psychological 0.7250 level. If cleared, the next stop would be the June 3, 2022, high of 0.7282 ahead of the 0.7300 area. The next area of interest would be on April 5, 2022, at 0.7661
Conversely, if AUD/USD ends the day below 0.7200, it could open the door for testing the 20-day SMA at 0.7121. Below this level is 0.7100 ─the bottom of the 100-pip range─, followed by the 50-day SMA at 0.7059
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