Technical Analysis 13 - Currency Hedger

Currency Hedger May 21, 2026 No Comments

Currency Talk – EUR/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD

Key takeaways

What is the technical outlook for EURUSD, USDCHF and USDCAD?

EURUSD EURUSD prices have recently broken below the 1:1 uptrend, whose lower boundary was at 1.1650. According to the Overbalance methodology, this paves the way for the downtrend to extend, potentially as far as the low at 1.1420. Conversely, for a return to an uptrend, the price would first need to move back above the 1.1650 level, and ideally also break through the 1.1720 level, where the upper limit of the local 1:1 downtrend pattern is located.

EURUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation USDCHF The USDCHF remains in a long-term downtrend. The price rebounded from a key resistance level at the end of March, leading to a decline of nearly 300 pips. Currently, attention should be paid to a local descending geometric pattern, for which resistance is at the 0.7914 level. Should this level be breached, the price could continue to rise towards the next resistance level at 0.8035. Only a sustained break above this higher level would suggest a shift in the balance of power on the chart. For the time being, however, the base case scenario remains a downtrend.

USDCHF – H4 chart. Source: xStation USDCAD The USDCAD pair shifted sentiment at the start of May, and since then we have seen a local uptrend, supported by a green 1:1 bullish pattern. Should a correction occur, the key support level remains at 1.3723. A break below this level could open the way for a decline towards 1.3630, where the polarity of the previously negated bearish pattern, marked in red, is located.

USDCAD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

Currency Hedger May 21, 2026 No Comments

AUD/USD – Picks up above 0.7120 after finding support in the 0.7100 area

AUD/USD holds above 0.7100 after falling from 0.7174 highs on Wednesday.
An unexpected rise in Australian unemployment adds to the case for an RBA rate pause.
The pair is trading in a triangle pattern, with a bearish outcome favoured.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) gives away gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, as soft Australian employment data cemented hopes that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will take a pause in the coming months after three consecutive rate hikes. The pair trades at 0.7126 at the time of writing, after bouncing from lows near 0.7100, but remains well below Wednesday’s highs, at 0.7174..

Australian unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in April, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, reaching its highest level since 2021, against expectations of a steady 4.3% rate. The jump in the jobless rate was due to an unexpected decline in net employment, which fell by 18.6K against the 17.5K increase expected.

Aussie’s weakness, however, is being tamed by a mild improvement in market sentiment as US President Donald Trump affirmed that Washington and Tehran would be in the final stages of a peace deal.

Technical Analysis: The pair is forming a small triangle pattern

AUD/USD trades at the lower band of the monthly trading range, with price action forming ang a small triangle pattern. Triangles are considered continuation patterns, and, in this case, would anticipate a bearish outcome.

Momentum indicators, in the 4-hour chart, are mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains capped below the 50 line, highlighting a mild bearish pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned marginally positive, hinting that bullish momentum is attempting to rebuild above recent lows.

Initial support is seen at the uptrend line around 0.7108, with additional protection emerging at the 0.7080 area (April 14, May 10 lows). A break below this band would expose an intraday support area at 0.7030.

Rallies, on the contrary, are likely to be tested in the area between the triangle top, near 0.7160, and Wednesday’s high, at the mentioned 0.7174 level. Further up, Monday’s high, at 0.7185, will also challenge bulls ahead of a previous support area, near 0.7215.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.01%	-0.00%	0.06%	0.11%	0.38%	0.19%	-0.02%
EUR	0.00%		-0.00%	0.09%	0.10%	0.38%	0.15%	-0.02%
GBP	0.00%	0.00%		0.09%	0.11%	0.40%	0.17%	-0.02%
JPY	-0.06%	-0.09%	-0.09%		0.02%	0.33%	0.04%	-0.09%
CAD	-0.11%	-0.10%	-0.11%	-0.02%		0.31%	0.07%	-0.14%
AUD	-0.38%	-0.38%	-0.40%	-0.33%	-0.31%		-0.23%	-0.44%
NZD	-0.19%	-0.15%	-0.17%	-0.04%	-0.07%	0.23%		-0.20%
CHF	0.02%	0.02%	0.02%	0.09%	0.14%	0.44%	0.20%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger May 21, 2026 No Comments

EUR/JPY Flatlines with neutral technical outlook as traders eye intervention risks

EUR/JPY holds steady near 184.75 in Thursday’s early European session.
The cross keeps a neutral outlook, while RSI momentum hovers around the midline.
The immediate resistance level emerges at 185.00; the initial support level to watch is 184.32.

The EUR/JPY cross trades on a flat note around 184.75 during the early European session on Thursday. Markets remain cautious over further currency intervention after Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated that the official is prepared to take action at any time against excessive FX volatility.

The stronger-than-expected Japanese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first quarter (Q1) might support the Japanese Yen (JPY) and act as a headwind for the cross. Japan’s Q1 GDP beat forecasts, growing at an annualized rate of 2.1% against the estimated 1.7%.

On the other hand, hawkish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers could lift the Euro (EUR) against the JPY. ECB policymaker Joachim ‌Nagel said on Tuesday that the central bank may have to act at its June meeting as the Iran energy shock proves persistent and the probability of broader inflation spreading continues to rise.

The majority of economists from the Reuters poll, around 85%, indicated that the ECB would raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.25% in June, up from just over half expecting that before the April meeting.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/JPY is consolidating in a sideways tone, holding above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) while trading just under the 20-day Bollinger mid-line, which keeps the immediate bias broadly neutral after the recent pullback from the highs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47 is hovering around the midline, hinting at a lack of directional conviction rather than strong selling pressure.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger mid-band around 185.00, with a stronger cap emerging at the May 12 high of 185.46 if bulls regain traction. The next hurdle to watch is the upper Bollinger band near 187.15. On the downside, the 100-day SMA at 184.32 offers first support, ahead of the May 7 low of 183.50. The critical support level is seen at the lower Bollinger band around 182.88, where a sustained break would likely expose a deeper correction.

Currency Hedger May 21, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD Consolidates above 1.1600 as Iran risks, hawkish Fed support USD

EUR/USD bulls seem hesitant as geopolitical uncertainties and Fed rate hike bets underpin the USD.
The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for any meaningful downfall.
A sustained strength beyond the 50% Fibo. is needed to negate the near-term negative outlook.

The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s bounce from the 1.1585-1.1580 region, or its lowest level since April 7, and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices, however, manage to hold above the 1.1600 mark as traders await further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis.

Despite renewed hopes for a de-escalation in the Iran conflict, investors remain skeptical about a US-Iran peace deal amid major disagreements over Tehran’s nuclear program and a standoff over the critical Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, hawkish FOMC Minutes reaffirmed bets for an interest rate hike in 2026, which helps limit the US Dollar’s (USD) corrective pullback from a six-week low and acts as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices maintain a bearish near-term bias beneath the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April upswing. Adding to this, the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the low-40s, hinting at subdued upside momentum. However, the overnight resilience below the 61.8% Fibo. level warrants some caution for the EUR/USD bears.

Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) (12, 26, close, 9) stabilizes slightly above the zero line with modest positive readings. This suggests that recent downside pressure is easing but not yet reversing the broader capped tone. Hence, any subsequent slide might continue to find support at the 61.8% Fibo. around 1.1591; a break there would expose the 78.6% level at 1.1522 ahead of the structural floor near 1.1433.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 50.0% retracement at 1.1640, followed by the 38.2% Fibo. near 1.1689, with the 200-period SMA at 1.1712 and the 23.6% retracement at 1.1749 reinforcing a dense supply zone higher up.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

US Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.01%	-0.80%	0.14%	0.08%	0.31%	-0.31%	0.03%
EUR	0.01%		-0.81%	0.22%	0.08%	0.30%	-0.24%	0.01%
GBP	0.80%	0.81%		0.98%	0.89%	1.12%	0.57%	0.81%
JPY	-0.14%	-0.22%	-0.98%		-0.12%	0.09%	-0.51%	-0.16%
CAD	-0.08%	-0.08%	-0.89%	0.12%		0.23%	-0.39%	-0.10%
AUD	-0.31%	-0.30%	-1.12%	-0.09%	-0.23%		-0.54%	-0.20%
NZD	0.31%	0.24%	-0.57%	0.51%	0.39%	0.54%		0.23%
CHF	-0.03%	-0.01%	-0.81%	0.16%	0.10%	0.20%	-0.23%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Currency Hedger May 21, 2026 No Comments

USD/JPY Trades flat near 159.00 as investors seek fresh developments on Iran war

USD/JPY flattens around 159.00 in countdown to US-Iran deal announcement.
US President Trump said that Washington is in final stages over deal with Iran.
10-year JGB yields remain firm due to growing Japan fiscal worries.

The USD/JPY pair trades calmly around 159.00 during the Asian trading session on Thursday. The pair turns sideways as investors await fresh developments regarding negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran, after President Donald Trump stated on Wednesday that talks are in “final stages”.

As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 99.20. The DXY’s rally hit pause on Wednesday after posting a fresh six-week high at 99.47, following US President Trump expressing confidence that a deal with Iran would be finalized soon.

We’re in the final stages of Iran. We’ll see what happens. Either have a deal or we’re going to do some things that are a little bit nasty, but hopefully that won’t happen,” Trump said, Bloomberg reported.

The optimism over the US-Iran, which resulted in a sharp decline in oil prices, has also slightly diminished expectations supporting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hike interest rates this year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed delivering at least one interest rate hike this year have cooled down to 51% from 61.3% seen on Tuesday. Still, there is a sharp turnaround from two interest rate cuts anticipated before the Middle East war started.

In Japan, the announcement of an extra budget by Prime Minister (PM) Sanae Takaichi, which aims to offset the impact of the Middle East situation has raised fiscal concerns. 10-year Japan Government Bond (JGB) yields are up 0.11% to near 2.77%, close to its multi-decade high of 2.81% posted on Tuesday.

USD/JPY technical analysis

USD/JPY trades almost flat at around 159.00 at the press time. The pair holds a modest bullish bias as it remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 158.37.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 55 points to neutral-to-positive momentum, hinting that buyers still have the upper hand while avoiding overbought conditions.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the 20-day EMA near 158.37, where a daily close below would weaken the constructive tone and open the door to a deeper corrective slide towards the May 14 low of 157.31. Looking up, the pair aims to revisit the April 30 high of 160.73.

Currency Hedger May 18, 2026 No Comments

AUD/JPY – Tests ascending triangle bottom near 113.00

AUD/JPY may rebound toward the nine-day EMA of 113.72.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 50 hints at a current lack of directional conviction.
A break below the triangle would expose the 50-day EMA support at 112.44.

AUD/JPY extends its losses for the third successive day, trading around 113.20 during the Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a potential busted pattern or bearish failure as the currency cross is positioned on the lower trendline of an ascending triangle. A sustained break below the lower trendline would indicate that buyers have lost momentum and sellers have taken control.

The AUD/JPY cross holds a mildly bullish near-term bias as it remains above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The pair is consolidating after its recent pullback, with price now caught between short-term resistance at the nine-day EMA and underlying trend support from the longer EMA, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at roughly 50 signals neutral momentum and hints at a lack of directional conviction for now.

On the upside, the AUD/JPY cross may rebound toward the nine-day EMA of 113.72. A break above the short-term average would support the currency cross to test the all-time high of 114.74, aligned with the upper boundary of the ascending triangle around 115.00.

A successful break below the triangle would expose the 50-day EMA at 112.44. Further declines would put downward pressure on the AUD/JPY cross to navigate the region around the three-month low at 108.79, recorded on March 31.

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.02%	0.08%	0.10%	0.00%	0.22%	-0.00%	-0.02%
EUR	-0.02%		0.04%	0.09%	-0.02%	0.20%	-0.02%	-0.05%
GBP	-0.08%	-0.04%		0.02%	-0.07%	0.14%	-0.07%	-0.09%
JPY	-0.10%	-0.09%	-0.02%		-0.14%	0.10%	-0.15%	-0.15%
CAD	-0.01%	0.02%	0.07%	0.14%		0.22%	0.00%	-0.01%
AUD	-0.22%	-0.20%	-0.14%	-0.10%	-0.22%		-0.20%	-0.20%
NZD	0.00%	0.02%	0.07%	0.15%	-0.00%	0.20%		-0.01%
CHF	0.02%	0.05%	0.09%	0.15%	0.01%	0.20%	0.01%

Currency Hedger May 14, 2026 No Comments

Trade of the day: GBPUSD

Facts:

The pair bounced off the lower limit of 1:1 structure at 1.3500
Main trend on the pair remains upward from the beginning of April

Recommendation: Trade: Long GBPUSD at market price Target: 1.3635, 1.3700 Stop: 1.3439

Opinion: Looking at GBPUSD chart, one can observe that the price bounced off the key technical support marked with the lower limit of 1:1 structure (red rectangles), as well as the 200-period moving average from H4 interval. In addition, the price formed a pin bar pattern on the chart. Should buyers manage to hold the price above the support area near 1.3500, another upward impulse may be about to start. We recommend taking a long position on GBPUSD at market price with two targets: 1.3635, and 1.3700. We recommend placing a stop loss order at 1.3439.

Currency Hedger May 14, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Remains above 1.1700 near 50-day EMA

EUR/USD may test the primary resistance at the nine-day EMA of 1.1730
The 14-day Relative Strength Index is near 50, indicating a lack of strong direction.
The lower ascending channel boundary is acting as immediate support, near the 50-day EMA at 1.1697.

EUR/USD inches higher after three days of losses, trading around 1.1710 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The daily chart technical analysis indicates a potential for a bearish reversal as the pair is positioned on the lower boundary of the ascending channel pattern.

The EUR/USD pair is holding just above the 50-day Exponential Moving average (EMA) but still capped by the nine-day EMA, which keeps the near-term tone broadly neutral with a slight bullish tilt. The price hovering between these averages suggests consolidation after recent gains, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 50 hints at balanced momentum rather than a strongly directional move.

On the upside, the primary barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.1730, followed by the 12-week high of 1.1849, reached on April 17. A break above this level would support the pair to test the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.2040. Further advances above the channel would lead the pair to explore the region around 1.2082, the highest since June 2021, reached on January 27.

The EUR/USD pair is positioned on the lower ascending channel boundary, aligned with the 50-day EMA at 1.1697. Further declines will put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the region around the nine-month low of 1.1411, recorded on March 13.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.04%	-0.05%	-0.03%	-0.01%	0.02%	0.06%	-0.06%
EUR	0.04%		-0.03%	0.00%	0.03%	0.00%	0.06%	-0.02%
GBP	0.05%	0.03%		0.02%	0.06%	0.06%	0.09%	0.03%
JPY	0.03%	0.00%	-0.02%		-0.01%	0.03%	0.06%	-0.05%
CAD	0.01%	-0.03%	-0.06%	0.00%		0.04%	0.06%	0.00%
AUD	-0.02%	0.00%	-0.06%	-0.03%	-0.04%		0.05%	-0.00%
NZD	-0.06%	-0.06%	-0.09%	-0.06%	-0.06%	-0.05%		-0.07%
CHF	0.06%	0.02%	-0.03%	0.05%	-0.00%	0.00%	0.07%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).