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GBP/USD climbs above 1.3240 as Iran hopes dent US Dollar

  • GBP/USD rises as ceasefire speculation weighs on the US Dollar.
  • Softer US services data added pressure on the Greenback.
  • Traders now await US inflation, jobless claims and Fed minutes.

The British Pound (GBP) advances by over 0.40% on Monday as US President Donald Trump said the Tuesday deadline he has set for Iran to make a deal is final, while rumors of a possible de-escalation weighed on the US Dollar (USD). GBP/USD trades around the 1.3240 figure at the time of writing.

Sterling gains as ceasefire rumors lift mood, soften Greenback

Risk appetite improved on Monday after Axios reported that US and Israeli officials, along with regional mediators, are discussing a 45-day ceasefire that could be extended if needed. Investors cheered the news, as depicted by US equities posting gains of 0.15% to 0.52%.

Data from the US showed that business activity deteriorated, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), as the Services PMI in March slipped from 56.1 to 54, below economists’ forecasts of 55. The Prices Paid sub-component of the PMI rose to its highest level since October 2022, coming at 70.7, sparked by the rise of oil and fuel costs, commented Steve Miller, the Chair of the ISM’s Services Business Survey Committee.

Last week, strong US jobs data posted the largest job gains in 15 months and a dip in the Unemployment Rate. Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 178K in March, exceeding estimates of 60K. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.

Consequently, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates are none, according to data from Prime Market Terminal, which reflects that the Fed funds rate will remain in the 3.50%-3.75% range, steady in 2026.

Fed interest rate probabilities

Source: Prime Market Terminal

Traders’ eyes will be on the release of US inflation figures, jobless claims, and the Federal Reserve’s last meeting minutes.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Chart Analysis GBP/USD

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3239. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as spot holds below the downward-sloping resistance trend line from 1.3869 and trades under the clustered simple moving averages near 1.3500, which now cap the upside. The persistent rejection along that descending line, combined with price pressure below the 50–100–200-day group, signals sellers retaining control, even as the longer-term rising support trend line from 1.3035 still prevents a steeper breakdown.

Initial resistance is now at 1.3320, where recent rebounds have stalled beneath the descending trend line, followed by 1.3435 and the moving-average zone around 1.35. A daily close above that 1.35 area would be needed to dilute the current bearish tone and reopen 1.3600. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3187, with 1.3130 and the rising trend line from 1.3035 below; a clean break under that trend support would confirm a deeper bearish extension toward 1.3050.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.23%-0.28%0.02%-0.22%-0.33%-0.45%-0.25%
EUR0.23%-0.03%0.24%0.00%-0.13%-0.25%-0.05%
GBP0.28%0.03%0.25%0.00%-0.09%-0.22%0.00%
JPY-0.02%-0.24%-0.25%-0.23%-0.36%-0.49%-0.28%
CAD0.22%-0.00%-0.01%0.23%-0.10%-0.23%-0.02%
AUD0.33%0.13%0.09%0.36%0.10%-0.14%0.09%
NZD0.45%0.25%0.22%0.49%0.23%0.14%0.23%
CHF0.25%0.05%-0.01%0.28%0.02%-0.09%-0.23%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

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GBP/JPY Price Analysis – Pound recovery hits resistance at 211.45

  • GBP/JPY picks up on risk appetite but remains capped below 211.45.
  • Hopes of a peace deal in Iran have triggered a moderate sentiment improvement.
  • Yen downside attempts remain limited, as intervention risks loom.

The Pound (GBP) is trading higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Monday, favoured by a moderate optimism amid news of a peace plan to end the war in Iran. The pair, however, remains capped below the 211.45 resistance area so far, although technical indicators are popping up into bullish territory.

News that  Iran and the US have received the framework of a plan for a 45-day ceasefire that might end the hostilities immediately and reopen the Strait of Hormuz has been welcomed by the market. Investors have responded by selling safe-haven assets like the US Dollar for the benefit of riskier-perceived assets like the Pound.

Nevertheless, traders are wary of placing significant Yen shorts. The USD/JPY remains relatively close to 160.00 a level which, according to market speculation, might unleash an intervention by Tokyo authorities to stem undesired JPY weakness.

Chart Analysis GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY shows a mildly bullish trend, after bouncing at 209.64 lows in late March, with the highest lows posted last week. A bullish engulfing candle in the daily chart might strengthen the case of a deeper correction if the pair closes the day beyond 211.45.

Technical indicators in the 4-hour chart show an improved momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stabilizing just above the 50 mark and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remaining in positive territory.

Price action suggests that we might be in the C-D leg of a Gartley pattern, targeting beyond the mentioned 211.45 resistance area to the area between the March 24 and 27 lows, at 212.30, and the 78.2% Fibonacci retracement of the late-March sell-off, at 212.55.

To the downside, immediate support is the April 2 low, at 210.35, ahead of the mentioned March 31 low, at 209.64.

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EUR/GBP – Supported by converging SMAs but capped below 0.8750

  • EUR/GBP edges lower as diplomatic efforts to end the US–Iran war lift sentiment and support risk-sensitive currencies.
  • GBP shows relative strength against the Euro, keeping the cross under pressure near recent highs.
  • Technically, EUR/GBP maintains a mildly bullish bias while holding above key moving averages, with RSI and MACD in positive territory.

EUR/GBP trades with a negative bias on Monday as diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war lift market sentiment and support risk-sensitive currencies, with the British Pound (GBP) relatively outperforming the Euro (EUR).

At the time of writing, the cross is trading around 0.8720, though it lacks strong follow-through selling and remains confined near the upper end of last week’s range.

According to Axios, the United States and Iran, along with regional mediators, are discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire that could help end the war. Separately, Reuters reported that both sides have received a proposal for a two-step deal, starting with a ceasefire followed by broader negotiations, which could come into effect as early as Monday and include reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

From a technical perspective, EUR/GBP shows a mildly bullish near-term bias as spot holds just above the flat 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.8686, while the 100-day SMA around 0.8709 and the 200-day SMA near 0.8701 converge just below current levels, forming a tentative support cluster that could cap downside attempts.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59 signals firm but not stretched upside momentum, consistent with a grind higher rather than a sharp breakout. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stands above the Signal line in marginally positive territory, and the modestly positive histogram reinforces a controlled bullish tone rather than an aggressive trend.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 0.8750, and a break above this level would strengthen the bullish case, opening the door toward the March swing high at 0.8789, close to the 0.8800 psychological mark.

On the downside, initial support is seen in the 0.8686-0.8708 moving average cluster. A break below this zone could weaken the near-term structure and expose the 0.8650 level, with further downside opening toward the 0.8600 psychological mark.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.32%-0.38%-0.14%-0.27%-0.48%-0.51%-0.33%
EUR0.32%-0.04%0.15%0.05%-0.17%-0.21%-0.03%
GBP0.38%0.04%0.19%0.07%-0.12%-0.18%0.03%
JPY0.14%-0.15%-0.19%-0.11%-0.34%-0.39%-0.20%
CAD0.27%-0.05%-0.07%0.11%-0.20%-0.24%-0.06%
AUD0.48%0.17%0.12%0.34%0.20%-0.06%0.15%
NZD0.51%0.21%0.18%0.39%0.24%0.06%0.21%
CHF0.33%0.03%-0.03%0.20%0.06%-0.15%-0.21%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/USD Price – Symmetrical Triangle formation near bottom triggers reversal hopes

  • EUR/USD rises to near 1.1560 as Iran’s confirmation of receiving the US ceasefire proposal has improved the market mood.
  • The USD Index slides below 100.00 as its safe-haven demand diminishes.
  • Iran clarifies that it won’t reopen Hormuz in exchange of temporary ceasefire.

The EUR/USD pair trades 0.4% higher to near 1.1560 during the European trading session on Monday. The major currency pair strengthens as market sentiment turns favorable toward riskier assets, such as the Euro (EUR), following confirmation from Iran that it has received the United States’ (US) ceasefire proposal through Pakistan.

An improvement in investors’ risk appetite has diminished the safe-haven demand of the US Dollar (USD). During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down almost 0.4% to near 99.80. The USD Index was steady above 100.00 in the Asian trade.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.34%-0.38%-0.16%-0.19%-0.48%-0.53%-0.31%
EUR0.34%-0.02%0.15%0.16%-0.16%-0.18%0.00%
GBP0.38%0.02%0.17%0.15%-0.12%-0.18%0.05%
JPY0.16%-0.15%-0.17%-0.01%-0.32%-0.38%-0.16%
CAD0.19%-0.16%-0.15%0.00%-0.28%-0.35%-0.12%
AUD0.48%0.16%0.12%0.32%0.28%-0.07%0.17%
NZD0.53%0.18%0.18%0.38%0.35%0.07%0.24%
CHF0.31%-0.01%-0.05%0.16%0.12%-0.17%-0.24%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Though Iran has acknowledged the receipt of the ceasefire proposal, it has clarified that there will be no acceptance of the proposal under pressure or deadlines. Tehran has also stated that it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a passage to 20% of global oil supply, in exchange for a ‘temporary ceasefire’.

On the macro front, investors await the US ISM Services PMI data for March, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. The Services PMI is expected to arrive at 55.0, lower than the previous reading of 56.1.

This week, major highlights will be the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the March policy meeting and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be released on Wednesday and Friday, respectively.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD trades higher at around 1.1560 at the press time. The pair sits just below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.1570, keeping a mild bearish bias in place while price remains capped beneath this dynamic barrier. A symmetrical triangle formation on the bottom level suggests that the broader trend has turned sideways, and a bullish reversal could be around the corner.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) range shift move into the 40.00-60.00 zone from territory below 40.00 signifies cooling upside momentum, with bullish bias remaining in place.

Initial resistance emerges at the 20-day EMA around 1.1570, followed by the descending trend-line region near 1.1600, where repeated failures have formed a tight cap on the upside. A close above that zone would weaken the bearish stance and open the way toward 1.1660. On the downside, immediate support is located at the rising trend line from 1.1408, now intersecting around 1.1500, with a break there exposing the late-1.14 area as the next bearish target. A sustained move below 1.1450 would confirm a deeper downside extension within the prevailing daily downtrend towards the March low at 1.1411.

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GBP/USD Retakes 1.3200; bearish bias persists amid geopolitical risks

  • GBP/USD gains some positive traction as reports of a 45-day US-Iran ceasefire undermine the USD.
  • Persistent geopolitical uncertainties could limit deeper USD losses and cap the upside for the pair.
  • The bearish technical setup further warrants caution before positioning for further appreciation.

The GBP/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers near the 1.3175 region during the Asian session on Monday, and for now, seems to have snapped a two-day losing streak. Spot prices climb back above the 1.3200 mark in the last hour, though any meaningful appreciation still seems elusive amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties.

Bloomberg, citing Axios, reported that the US, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire that could lead to an end of fighting. This, in turn, keeps a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and offers some support to the GBP/USD pair. However, the risk of a further escalation of the conflict remains in play amid US President Donald Trump’s fresh threat to target Iran’s power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Tuesday.

From a technical perspective, the near-term bias is mildly bearish as the GBP/USD pair holds well below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which continues to slope lower and cap the broader trend. Adding to this, the momentum has faded after last week’s rebound as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is flattening just under the zero line and showing a marginally negative histogram, suggesting a lack of sustained buying pressure.

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 43, below the 50 midline, which reinforces a soft downside tone rather than an oversold extreme. Hence, any further move up is likely to confront immediate resistance at 1.3240, with a stronger cap near 1.3300, where recent swing highs converge, and short-term sellers have reappeared. A sustained move above the latter would be needed to challenge the declining 200-period SMA around 1.3370 and start easing the prevailing bearish bias.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the recent floor around 1.3190, where a break would open the way toward the lower 1.3150 region as the next bearish target.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

GBP/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis GBP/USD
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AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Gains ground above 110.00 as mild bullish bias persists

  • AUD/JPY drifts higher to around 110.20 in Monday’s Asian session. 
  • The cross keeps a mildly bullish vibe, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out amid neutral RSI momentum. 
  • The first upside barrier emerges at 111.25; initial support is located at 110.00.  

The AUD/JPY cross attracts some buyers to near 110.20 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on expectations of further interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). 

However, the upside for the cross might be limited as escalating tensions in the Middle East could boost safe-haven demand for the JPY. Iran’s central military command on Monday warned of far more “devastating and widespread” retaliation if its adversaries hit civilian targets. The statement came after US President Donald Trump threatened to destroy Iran’s power plants and bridges if Tehran didn’t make a deal to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Chart Analysis AUD/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, the near-term bias of AUD/JPY is mildly bullish as price holds above the rising 100-day exponential moving average near 107.35, extending the broader uptrend despite the latest pullback. The RSI eases to the midline, suggesting that further consolidation cannot be ruled out in the near term. 

Immediate resistance emerges near the Bollinger middle band of 111.25. Above that, the next upside reference aligns near the March 19 high of 112.61, en route to the upper Bollinger Band of 113.65. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 110.00 psychological level. A deeper setback would target the lower limit of the Bollinger Band near 108.75, followed by the 100-day EMA around 107.35. 

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USD/JPY Continues to hold 20-day EMA amid fears of Middle East war escalation

  • USD/JPY edges down to near 159.55 as the US Dollar ticks lower.
  • US President Trump promises an assault on Iran if it doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Investors await the US ISM Services PMI data for March.

The USD/JPY pair trades marginally down at around 159.55 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The pair shows a subdued performance as the US Dollar (USD) ticks lower, while broadly remaining firm due to threats from United States (US) President Donald Trump that he will destroy Iranian infrastructure if it doesn’t agree to a deal.

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower to near 100.15.

Over the weekend, US President Trump promised “hell” for Iran’s power plants and bridges, through a post on Truth.Social, if Tehran doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz before the deadline, which is Tuesday, April 7, at 9:00 PM Eastern time.

On the macro front, investors await the US ISM Services PMI data for March, which will be released at 14:00 GMT. The Services PMI is expected to arrive lower at 55.0 from 56.1 in February.

Meanwhile, fears of escalating Middle East war have also improved the safe-haven demand of the Japanese Yen (JPY).

USD/JPY technical analysis

USD/JPY ticks lower at around 159.55 as of writing. However, the near-term bias is bullish as price holds within an ascending channel and consolidates beneath the upper boundary. The pair trades above the 20-day exponential moving average around 158.90, which underpins the advance and aligns with the pattern of higher lows along the channel floor near 158.10.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shifted into the 40.00-60.00 zone, indicating positive, though not extreme, momentum that supports ongoing upside pressure while the channel structure is respected.

Initial resistance emerges at 160.45, the recent swing high, with the channel top near 161.00 as the next barrier to extended gains. A clear break above the latter would open the way toward higher psychological levels beyond 162.00. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA near 158.90, ahead of the channel base around 158.10, which defines the lower boundary of the current uptrend. A daily close below 158.10 would weaken the bullish structure and expose deeper retracement levels toward the mid-157.00s.

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AUD/USD Price Forecast: Tests nine-day EMA after breaking above 0.6900

  • AUD/USD may find the initial support at the 11-week low of 0.6833.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index hovers near 43, suggesting mild bullish pressure.
  • The pair tests the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 0.6918.

AUD/USD holds gains after two days of losses, trading around 0.6910 during the Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair remains within a descending wedge pattern, suggesting that selling pressure is gradually weakening as lower highs and lower lows converge. This structure often reflects a loss of bearish momentum, increasing the likelihood of a bullish breakout.

However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 43, suggesting a bearish bias, with momentum slipping below the midline after failing to sustain earlier strength. Moreover, the near-term bias is bearish as the AUD/USD pair holds below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the flatter 50-day EMA.

The initial support lies at the 11-week low of 0.6833, which was recorded on March 30, followed by the lower boundary of the descending wedge around 0.6810. A break below the wedge would strengthen the bearish bias and open the doors for the AUD/USD pair to navigate the region around a deeper 0.6400 rebound support zone.

The AUD/USD pair could find the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 0.6918, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6958 around the upper boundary of the wedge. A sustained break above this confluence resistance zone would lead the pair to test the 0.7187, the highest since June 2022, reached on March 11.

AUD/USD: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.02%-0.09%-0.05%-0.05%-0.15%-0.14%0.09%
EUR0.02%-0.04%-0.06%0.00%-0.14%-0.14%0.09%
GBP0.09%0.04%-0.02%-0.00%-0.09%-0.10%0.16%
JPY0.05%0.06%0.02%0.02%-0.11%-0.11%0.13%
CAD0.05%-0.00%0.00%-0.02%-0.10%-0.10%0.14%
AUD0.15%0.14%0.09%0.11%0.10%-0.01%0.24%
NZD0.14%0.14%0.10%0.11%0.10%0.01%0.26%
CHF-0.09%-0.09%-0.16%-0.13%-0.14%-0.24%-0.26%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).