Technical Analysis 14 - Currency Hedger

Currency Hedger April 28, 2026 No Comments

Trade of The Day – GBP/JPY – Long GBP/JPY at market price Target: 215.85

Facts:

The pair reached the lower limit of 1:1 structure at 215.14 Main trend on the pair remains upward

Recommendation:

Trade: Long GBPJPY at market price Target: 215.85, 216.30 Stop: 214.90

Opinion:

Looking at GBPJPY chart, one can observe that the price reached the key technical support today. This support is marked with the lower limit of 1:1 structure (green rectangles), as well as 200-period moving average. In addition the bullish candlestick pattern – pin bar appeared on the H1 chart. Should buyers manage to hold the price above the support at 215.14, another upward impulse may be on the cards. We recommend taking a long position on GBPJPY at market price with two targets: 215.85 and 216.30 We recommend placing a stop loss order at 214.90.

Currency Hedger April 28, 2026 No Comments

USD/INR boards fresh rally as oil prices remain elevated

The Indian Rupee falls further against the US Dollar as higher oil prices boost demand for the Greenback by Indian importers.
Fresh concerns over India Inc.’s earnings projections have dampened the FIIs interest in the Indian stock market.
This week, investors will pay close attention to the Fed’s monetary policy.

The Indian Rupee (INR) weakens further after a brief pause against the US Dollar (USD) in the opening session on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair jumps to near 94.50 as elevated oil prices continue to hurt the Indian Rupee.

As of writing, the WTI Oil price trades 0.6% higher to near $95.60 and is close to its two-week high of $97 posted on Thursday.

Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.

Oil prices have remained higher due to uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage to almost 20% of global energy supply.

According to a Reuters report, oil-linked flows and hedging-related US Dollar demand are key headwinds for the Indian Rupee

Hormuz closure keeps oil prices elevated

The uncertainty regarding the reopening of the Hormuz remains escalated, as Washington has not shown any signs of interest in proposals delivered by Iran to end the war. On late Monday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that US President Trump discussed Iran’s proposal with the national security team, which calls for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a permanent ceasefire. Leavitt didn’t reveal any information regarding the odds of whether it will be taken forward by Washington.

“I wouldn’t say they’re considering it. I would just say that there was a discussion this morning that I don’t want to get ahead of, and you’ll hear directly from the president, I’m sure, on this topic,” Leavitt said.

On Monday, US President Trump received another proposal from Iran, which he called “better” than the one, which it was expected to present in canceled peace talks in Islamabad over the weekend, but “still not good enough”.

FIIs extends selling pressure in Indian stock market

In the last six trading days, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers and have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 18,291.34 crore after a little buying in the April 15-17 period. FIIs appear to be dumping their stake in the Indian equity market due to elevated oil prices, which have raised concerns over India Inc.’s earnings projections.

Fed seems to maintain status quo

This week, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, in which it is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% for the third time in a row. Investors will pay close attention to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments regarding the monetary policy outlook in the wake of the energy price shock amid the Hormuz closure.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR approaches all-time high of 95.20

USD/INR trades higher at around 94.50, maintaining a bullish near-term bias, as it holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 93.53. The positioning above this rising EMA suggests the broader uptrend remains intact, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 61 indicates firm but not overstretched upside momentum.

On the downside, the 20-day EMA at 93.53 stands as the first layer of dynamic support, and a daily close below this level would hint at a deeper corrective phase within the broader trend. Looking up, the pair aims to revisit the all-time high around 95.20. The spot would enter uncharted territory if it manages a decisive break above 95.20.

Currency Hedger April 28, 2026 No Comments

EUR/JPY – Price Moves below 186.50, nine-day confluence

EUR/JPY may rebound toward the nine-day EMA at 186.66 near the ascending channel’s lower boundary.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 53 signals positive, not overstretched momentum.
The primary support lies at the 50-day EMA at 185.00.

EUR/JPY depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 186.40 during European hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross slips below the ascending channel, signaling a possible bearish reversal.

However, the EUR/JPY cross holds above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), keeping the near-term bias mildly bullish even as it consolidates just under the nine-day EMA, which acts as immediate resistance.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 53, suggesting positive but not overstretched momentum, and hints that dips toward the underlying averages could continue to attract buyers while the broader uptrend structure remains intact.

The rebound toward the nine-day EMA at 186.66 around the lower boundary of the ascending channel would revive the bullish bias and lead the EUR/JPY cross to test the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17. Further advances above this level would support the currency cross to explore the region around the upper boundary of the channel, around 189.80.

On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross may fall toward initial support, which lies at the 50-day EMA at 185.00.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.19%	0.17%	0.00%	0.05%	0.19%	0.32%	0.40%
EUR	-0.19%		-0.04%	-0.22%	-0.17%	-0.02%	0.07%	0.20%
GBP	-0.17%	0.04%		-0.17%	-0.12%	0.03%	0.13%	0.23%
JPY	0.00%	0.22%	0.17%		0.06%	0.20%	0.30%	0.40%
CAD	-0.05%	0.17%	0.12%	-0.06%		0.14%	0.24%	0.35%
AUD	-0.19%	0.02%	-0.03%	-0.20%	-0.14%		0.11%	0.24%
NZD	-0.32%	-0.07%	-0.13%	-0.30%	-0.24%	-0.11%		0.09%
CHF	-0.40%	-0.20%	-0.23%	-0.40%	-0.35%	-0.24%	-0.09%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger April 28, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD Price Forecast – Holds above 1.1700 as USD bulls seem hesitant ahead of FOMC meeting

EUR/USD edges lower as the US-Iran stalemate revives demand for the safe-haven USD.
Bets for at least one Fed rate cut in 2026 might cap the USD ahead of the FOMC meeting.
The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for a firm direction.

The EUR/USD pair trades with a mild negative bias during the Asian session on Tuesday and looks to extend the previous day’s retracement slide from levels just above mid-1.1700s.

The uncertainty over the second round of US-Iran peace talks underpins the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for spot prices. The USD bulls, however, seem hesitant and opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday before placing aggressive bets. This assists the EUR/USD pair to hold above the 1.1700 round-figure mark.

The EUR/USD pair holds a modest bullish bias as it trades above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent move up from the late March low. However, momentum oscillators are mixed and hint that upside pressure is constructive but not impulsive. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is marginally positive and above its signal.

That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips back toward the mid-40s. Adding to this, the overnight failure near the 23.6% Fibo. and the subsequent fall warrants caution before placing positioning for any meaningful appreciating move. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at 1.1749 (23.6% Fibo. level), ahead of a more substantial barrier at the recent cycle high region just ahead of mid-1.1800s.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at 1.1690, with further cushions at the 50.0% level around 1.1643 and the 61.8% retracement near 1.1595. A deeper pullback toward 1.1528 and 1.1442 would only come into view if the EUR/USD pair slips decisively below the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.06%	0.03%	-0.22%	0.06%	0.04%	0.15%	0.12%
EUR	-0.06%		-0.04%	-0.30%	-0.02%	-0.04%	0.04%	0.06%
GBP	-0.03%	0.04%		-0.24%	0.03%	0.02%	0.10%	0.10%
JPY	0.22%	0.30%	0.24%		0.29%	0.28%	0.36%	0.35%
CAD	-0.06%	0.02%	-0.03%	-0.29%		-0.02%	0.06%	0.07%
AUD	-0.04%	0.04%	-0.02%	-0.28%	0.02%		0.09%	0.12%
NZD	-0.15%	-0.04%	-0.10%	-0.36%	-0.06%	-0.09%		-0.01%
CHF	-0.12%	-0.06%	-0.10%	-0.35%	-0.07%	-0.12%	0.00%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Currency Hedger April 27, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD holds supported as Dollar softens, central bank decisions loom

EUR/USD remains supported at the start of the week, helped by a weaker US Dollar amid geopolitical uncertainty.
German consumer sentiment deteriorates more than expected, reflecting current economic tensions.
Markets await the Fed and ECB monetary policy decisions later this week.

EUR/USD trades around 1.1740 on Monday, up 0.21% on the day, extending Friday’s rebound from the 1.1670 area, despite a more fragile macroeconomic backdrop in the Eurozone.

Latest data from Germany show a marked deterioration in consumer confidence. The GfK index falls to -33.3 in May, its lowest level in more than three years, from -28.1 previously and well below market expectations. This decline highlights the ongoing impact of geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices on European households. However, the Euro’s (EUR) reaction remains limited, as investors currently focus on external drivers.

The main market catalyst remains developments in the Middle East. Hopes for easing tensions between the United States (US) and Iran are supporting risk appetite, weighing on demand for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD). According to reports from Axios, Tehran has submitted a new peace proposal that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, fostering cautious optimism. Nevertheless, negotiations remain stalled, and disruptions to Oil supply keep Crude prices near $100 per barrel, a level that could weigh on global growth.

In this context, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is declining, reflecting broad-based weakness in the Greenback. Expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged in the near term, alongside the possibility of a more dovish stance ahead, are also contributing to the downside pressure on the USD.

Investors now turn their attention to upcoming monetary policy decisions this week. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to follow suit on Thursday, although it may signal future tightening amid persistent inflationary pressures, particularly driven by energy prices. According to ING, a firm ECB message regarding a potential rate hike could help keep the Euro supported in the short term.

Overall, despite weakening European fundamentals, EUR/USD dynamics remain primarily driven by external factors, particularly US Dollar movements and geopolitical developments.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.20%	-0.19%	-0.16%	-0.44%	-0.51%	-0.56%	-0.10%
EUR	0.20%		0.02%	0.04%	-0.24%	-0.27%	-0.34%	0.10%
GBP	0.19%	-0.02%		0.02%	-0.28%	-0.32%	-0.39%	0.08%
JPY	0.16%	-0.04%	-0.02%		-0.28%	-0.35%	-0.41%	0.09%
CAD	0.44%	0.24%	0.28%	0.28%		-0.06%	-0.12%	0.34%
AUD	0.51%	0.27%	0.32%	0.35%	0.06%		-0.04%	0.43%
NZD	0.56%	0.34%	0.39%	0.41%	0.12%	0.04%		0.45%
CHF	0.10%	-0.10%	-0.08%	-0.09%	-0.34%	-0.43%	-0.45%

Currency Hedger April 27, 2026 No Comments

EUR/GBP – Hesitation above 0.8655 with bears still in control

EUR/GBP bounced up from lows near 0.8650 but remains capped below 0.8670 so far.
Weak German consumer confidence data has weighed on the Euro across the board.
Technical indicators show a waning bearish pressure.

The Euro (EUR) is trimming some losses against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday after finding support at the 0.8655 area late last week. Upside attempts, however, remain capped below a previous support area at 0.8670 so far, which leaves the broader bearish trend in play for now.

Data from Germany released earlier on Monday revealed that consumer confidence for May, as measured by the GfK Consumer Confidence Survey, deteriorated to its weakest level since February 2023, amid the consequences of the war in Iran. The impact of these figures on the Euro, however, has been cushioned by a mild risk appetite, fuelled by news of ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran to end the Middle East conflict. This is keeping the Euro and the Pound moderately positive against the safe-haven US Dollar (USD).

Technical Analysis: Bears are losing momentum

From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart shows the EUR/GBP trading within a bearish channel, although Friday’s upper low and a bullish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest that sellers might be losing momentum.

The RSI has been trending higher, although it is still below the 50 midline, highlighting a mild bearish pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is flat near the zero line, pointing to a lack of strong directional momentum, altogether showing an indecisive market.

Bulls would need to confirm above the area around 0.8685 (April 8, 14 lows, and April 24 high) to clear the path towards trendline resistance, now at 0.8705. Key support is at the confluence of Thursday and Friday’s lows, between 0.8655 and 0.8660, and the channel bottom, at 0.8650. Further down, the next target is the March 24 and 26 lows near 0.8635.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.21%	-0.16%	-0.16%	-0.40%	-0.49%	-0.51%	-0.11%
EUR	0.21%		0.08%	0.07%	-0.19%	-0.26%	-0.29%	0.10%
GBP	0.16%	-0.08%		0.00%	-0.24%	-0.34%	-0.37%	0.04%
JPY	0.16%	-0.07%	0.00%		-0.23%	-0.34%	-0.38%	0.08%
CAD	0.40%	0.19%	0.24%	0.23%		-0.10%	-0.14%	0.29%
AUD	0.49%	0.26%	0.34%	0.34%	0.10%		-0.01%	0.39%
NZD	0.51%	0.29%	0.37%	0.38%	0.14%	0.01%		0.41%
CHF	0.11%	-0.10%	-0.04%	-0.08%	-0.29%	-0.39%	-0.41%

Currency Hedger April 27, 2026 No Comments

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Remains below 0.7850 near moving averages

USD/CHF may test the descending channel’s lower boundary near 0.7690.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 47 signals weak momentum, not a clear oversold condition.
The initial resistance lies at the nine-day EMA of 0.7843.

USD/CHF remains subdued for the second successive day, trading around 0.7840 during European hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the pair is positioned within the descending channel pattern, signaling an ongoing bearish bias.

The USD/CHF pair keeps a bearish near-term bias as the spot price holds beneath both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages, respectively. The short-term EMA flattening just above the price and the longer EMA capping the pair hint at persistent overhead supply, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 47 reflects subdued momentum rather than a decisive oversold condition.

The USD/CHF pair may navigate the region around the lower boundary of the descending channel around 0.7690. A successful break below the channel would reinforce the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the pair to test 0.7604, the lowest since August 2011, recorded in January.

On the upside, the immediate barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 0.7843, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.7862. A break above these EMAs would improve price momentum and support the USD/CHF pair to test the upper boundary of the descending channel around 0.7949. A sustained break above the channel would cause the emergence of the bullish bias and lead the pair to explore the region around the 10-month high of 0.8171, reached in August 2025.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Swiss Franc Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.24%	-0.18%	-0.14%	-0.42%	-0.54%	-0.54%	-0.18%
EUR	0.24%		0.07%	0.11%	-0.18%	-0.26%	-0.29%	0.07%
GBP	0.18%	-0.07%		0.02%	-0.26%	-0.36%	-0.38%	-0.01%
JPY	0.14%	-0.11%	-0.02%		-0.26%	-0.39%	-0.42%	0.00%
CAD	0.42%	0.18%	0.26%	0.26%		-0.12%	-0.15%	0.24%
AUD	0.54%	0.26%	0.36%	0.39%	0.12%		-0.01%	0.36%
NZD	0.54%	0.29%	0.38%	0.42%	0.15%	0.01%		0.37%
CHF	0.18%	-0.07%	0.00%	-0.00%	-0.24%	-0.36%	-0.37%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger April 27, 2026 No Comments

Chart of The Day – Oil

Brent crude opened the new week with gains, trading at $101.56 per barrel (+1.81%), with a daily high of $102.15. On the daily chart, the price has clearly moved away from key moving averages—the EMA50 stands at $91.66, the EMA100 at $83.44, and the EMA200 at $76.83—confirming the strong uptrend that has persisted for many weeks. The RSI(14) at 56.01 indicates moderate upward momentum, with no signs of the market being overbought. The geopolitical situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remains the main driver of oil prices.

Following visits to Pakistan and Oman, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi announced the continuation of consultations with the Sultanate regarding safe transit through the strait, which the market initially interpreted as a sign of de-escalation—WTI retreated from its daily high of $96.68 to around $95.35.

However, caution is warranted:

control over the Strait of Hormuz remains Tehran’s main bargaining chip, and it is difficult to expect Iran to relinquish it before securing concessions on the nuclear issue. Trump, for his part, has made it clear that he will maintain the naval blockade as a tool of pressure, and any “opening” of the strait would be, at best, a symbolic gesture by Iran in exchange for lifting the blockade. The key event of the day is the Situation Room meeting convened by Trump, the outcome of which could cause oil prices to spike.

Looking at the week as a whole, the oil market will react to decisions by the Fed, ECB, and BoE, as well as macroeconomic data (PCE, GDP, ISM), and any news from the Middle East could trigger sharp volatility in an already heated commodities market.

Source: xStation