Technical Analysis 20 - Currency Hedger

Currency Hedger April 15, 2026 No Comments

Currency Talk – EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP, AUD/USD (April 15, 2026)

This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analyzed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which helps determine where a trend may continue or where it may reverse. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, evaluated solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures. EURAUD The EURAUD exchange rate had been in a downtrend for quite some time. However, between March and April, we observed a significant upward correction that broke through the largest corrective pattern, suggesting a potential trend reversal. Ultimately, it turned out to be merely a corrective move within the downtrend, and the price is once again attempting to resume its decline. In the short term, the local 1:1 upward pattern was negated at the 1.6680 level, which was subsequently tested from the other side. Currently, the price is attempting to fall below the 1.6545 level, where the polarity of the previously negated 1:1 downward pattern is located. If this level holds as resistance, the base case scenario will be a continuation of the decline, potentially even toward 1.6135. Conversely, a return above 1.6680 could pave the way for a shift to an uptrend.

EURAUD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation EURGBP The EURGBP pair hit a local low around 0.8617, after which it attempted to generate a stronger upward move. Currently, however, there appears to be an issue with sustaining the rally. The price is oscillating around the key level of 0.8693, which previously acted as support. Retests of this level could result in its rejection and a return to declines. If the price remains above 0.8693, another upward impulse may be generated. Otherwise, the base scenario will be a retest of the lows around 0.8617.

EURGBP – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation AUDUSD Since late March, AUDUSD has been trading within a local uptrend. Two corrections of similar magnitude—around 100 pips—are visible, confirming a market structure consistent with the Overbalance methodology. A local uptrend has been in place since the low on March 30, and as long as the geometric pattern is not negated, further gains remain the base case scenario. In the event of a correction, the key support level is 0.7043, derived from the lower boundary of the 1:1 pattern.

AUDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

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Currency Hedger April 15, 2026 No Comments

AUD/USD Price Looks likely to reclaim multi-year high of 0.7190

AUD/USD jumps to near 0.7137 as the Australian Dollar outperforms its peers.
The US-Iran optimism has diminished the US Dollar’s safe-haven appeal.
US President Trump expresses confidence regarding a permanent ceasefire with Iran.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms its major currency peers, trading 0.23% higher to near 0.7137 against the US Dollar (USD), during the early European session on Wednesday. The antipodean trades firmly as the market sentiment is risk-on due to optimism towards a permanent ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran.

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.04%	0.00%	0.08%	0.03%	-0.27%	-0.01%	0.03%
EUR	-0.04%		-0.03%	0.07%	-0.01%	-0.21%	-0.04%	-0.01%
GBP	-0.01%	0.03%		0.09%	0.05%	-0.18%	-0.03%	0.02%
JPY	-0.08%	-0.07%	-0.09%		-0.07%	-0.29%	-0.15%	-0.09%
CAD	-0.03%	0.00%	-0.05%	0.07%		-0.21%	-0.05%	-0.02%
AUD	0.27%	0.21%	0.18%	0.29%	0.21%		0.17%	0.22%
NZD	0.01%	0.04%	0.03%	0.15%	0.05%	-0.17%		0.05%
CHF	-0.03%	0.00%	-0.02%	0.09%	0.02%	-0.22%	-0.05%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

As of writing, S&P 500 futures hold onto Tuesday’s gains around 6,970, reflecting an upbeat market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, edges up to near 98.10, but is close to its almost seven-week low of 98.00.

US President Donald Trump has expressed confidence that Washington and Iran could reach a permanent ceasefire in the next two days. Trump said in an interview with ABC News that he doesn’t think extending the two-week ceasefire, adding, “I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead. I really do.”

On the domestic front, the warning of stagflation from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor, in a fire chat event on Tuesday, has raised concerns over the Australian economic outlook. Hauser said that the coming months will be “challenging” for Australia in the wake of an energy crisis due to Middle East conflicts and high inflationary pressures.

AUD/USD technical analysis

AUD/USD trades higher at around at 0.7140 at the press time. The pair holds a constructive near-term bias as it remains above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.7023, suggesting that recent dips have been bought and that the short-term trend is underpinned by rising demand.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 63.3 leans into bullish territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, hinting that upside momentum is still developing rather than exhausted.

On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA at 0.7023, where a break would likely weaken the current bullish structure and open the door to a deeper correction toward prior congestion levels around 0.6935. As long as spot continues to trade above this moving average and RSI holds above the midline, pullbacks are likely to be treated as corrective pauses within the broader upward bias, and it could attempt to reclaim the multi-year high near 0.7200

Currency Hedger April 15, 2026 No Comments

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Defends 200-SMA support on H4; bulls seem hesitant near 159.00

USD/JPY edges higher during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it lacks follow-through.
Hormuz risks undermine the JPY and lend support to spot prices amid a modest USD recovery.
The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before placing aggressive directional bets.

The USD/JPY pair once again shows some resilience below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and edges higher during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices, however, lack bullish conviction and struggle to capitalize on the strength beyond the 159.00 mark.

Despite the optimism over Iran diplomacy, economic concerns stemming from the instability in the Strait of Hormuz hold back traders from placing bullish bets around the Japanese Yen (JPY). This, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) recovery from its lowest level since early March, turns out to be another factor lending some support to the USD/JPY pair. However, the optimism over continued US-Iran peace talks and diminishing odds for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) caps the upside for the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair retains a mildly bullish near-term bias as it remains above the 158.30-158.25 horizontal support. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is slightly negative and flat below the zero line, suggesting waning bearish pressure rather than a strong directional impulse for now. That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 46 hints at only modest downside momentum. This, in turn, warrants caution before positioning for further gains.

Meanwhile, the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart near 158.76 might continue to protect the immediate downside. A sustained break would weaken the constructive tone and open the door to a deeper correction. As long as USD/JPY holds above this moving average, dips are likely to attract buyers, though the lack of bullish conviction implies that the near-term trajectory will have to be defined on the basis of forthcoming price action rather than the existing mixed technical setup.

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.07%	0.01%	0.13%	0.06%	-0.15%	0.03%	0.07%
EUR	-0.07%		-0.06%	0.07%	-0.02%	-0.15%	-0.04%	-0.00%
GBP	-0.01%	0.06%		0.11%	0.09%	-0.10%	-0.01%	0.05%
JPY	-0.13%	-0.07%	-0.11%		-0.06%	-0.21%	-0.12%	-0.07%
CAD	-0.06%	0.02%	-0.09%	0.06%		-0.13%	-0.04%	-0.01%
AUD	0.15%	0.15%	0.10%	0.21%	0.13%		0.10%	0.14%
NZD	-0.03%	0.04%	0.00%	0.12%	0.04%	-0.10%		0.04%
CHF	-0.07%	0.00%	-0.05%	0.07%	0.00%	-0.14%	-0.04%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger April 15, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Steadies below 1.1800 near eight-week highs

EUR/USD may retest the ascending channel top near the eight-week high of 1.1834.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 64 indicates solid positive momentum.
The immediate support lies at the nine-day EMA at 1.1701.

EUR/USD remains calm after halting its seven-day winning streak, trading around 1.1790 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The daily chart technical analysis indicates a bullish bias, as the pair is moving upwards within an ascending channel.

The EUR/USD pair maintains a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The pair is pressing higher with the 14-day Relative Strength Index hovering near 64, suggesting firm positive momentum but edging towards overbought territory as price approaches nearby overhead levels.

On the upside, the EUR/USD pair may retest its immediate barrier at the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.1830, followed by the eight-week high of 1.1834, reached on February 23. A sustained break above this confluence resistance zone would lead the pair to explore the region around 1.2082, the highest since June 2021, reached on January 27.

The EUR/USD pair may find the initial support at the nine-day EMA of 1.1701, followed by the nine-day EMA of 1.1654 and the lower ascending channel boundary around 1.1630. Further declines below the channel would expose the eight-month low of 1.1411, recorded on March 13.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.07%	0.00%	0.11%	0.06%	-0.17%	0.02%	0.06%
EUR	-0.07%		-0.06%	0.06%	-0.01%	-0.17%	-0.05%	-0.01%
GBP	-0.00%	0.06%		0.13%	0.09%	-0.10%	0.01%	0.05%
JPY	-0.11%	-0.06%	-0.13%		-0.06%	-0.21%	-0.14%	-0.08%
CAD	-0.06%	0.00%	-0.09%	0.06%		-0.15%	-0.05%	-0.02%
AUD	0.17%	0.17%	0.10%	0.21%	0.15%		0.10%	0.15%
NZD	-0.02%	0.05%	-0.01%	0.14%	0.05%	-0.10%		0.05%
CHF	-0.06%	0.00%	-0.05%	0.08%	0.02%	-0.15%	-0.05%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger April 14, 2026 No Comments

Trade of The Day – EUR/USD

Facts:

EUR/USD is trading at 1.18 12:30 PM GMT on Tuesday, April 14, one hour ahead of the U.S March PPI release
The pair has managed to break above both the 200- and 100-session exponential moving averages (EMA200 and EMA100)
The daily RSI is above 65, while MACD remains supportive, and the pair is trading near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the downtrend that began on January 27

Recommendation:

Position: Short EUR/USD at market price
Take Profit: 1.16646
Stop Loss: 1.18881

View:

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD has re-entered an upward trend, but the rebound—driven by growing optimism around a potential resolution of the U.S.–Iran conflict—has been unusually sharp. At the same time, conditions in global energy markets—on which Europe is more dependent than the U.S remain challenging. IEA President Fatih Birol indicated that normalization of supply from the Middle East could take up to two years due to the scale of infrastructure damage. As a result, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the late-January downtrend, further reinforced by prior price reactions (February consolidation), may act as a significant resistance level for EUR/USD. Uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is likely to persist, with Iran maintaining that the U.S. will not control this key trade route. In an escalation scenario, sentiment toward EUR/USD may gradually weaken, and even if the conflict ultimately resolves favorably for Europe, the pair could experience elevated volatility along the way. Also, multiple US macro data signals that price pressure is starting to rise across the economy, which may lead to still quite ‘hawkish’ Fed stance ahead of the summer. Technically, the daily RSI has risen to 65, while the hourly RSI stands at 79.1—both suggesting overbought conditions. Given this setup, a short position is favored, targeting 1.16646 with a protective stop at 1.18881. M

Source: xStation5

Currency Hedger April 14, 2026 No Comments

Currency Talk – GBP/USD, GBP/JPY USD/CHF

GBPUSD
GBPUSD prices have been trending downward for quite some time, but on April 8, the 1:1 geometry was negated, which, according to the Overbalance methodology, paves the way for a larger correction or even a shift to an uptrend. Currently, the 1.3360–1.3355 zone should be treated as key support, where both the polarity of the negated downward geometry and the lower boundary of the local 1:1 upward pattern are located. As long as the price remains above this zone, the bullish sentiment prevails. Only a drop below 1.3355 could push the market back toward declines.

GBPUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

GBPJPY
GBPJPY has been in an uptrend for some time now. The last two corrections were of identical magnitude, as indicated by the green rectangles, confirming the market’s rhythm in line with the Overbalance methodology. Currently, the price is trading near local highs. In the event of a correction, the key support level remains at 212.33, derived from the 1:1 ratio. At this point, there are no clear supply signals, so the base case scenario remains a continuation of the uptrend.

GBPJPY – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

USDCHF
The USDCHF pair rebounded from key resistance at the 0.8042 level, which stems from the largest corrective pattern within the downtrend that has been ongoing since January 2025. Additionally, the price fell below the 0.7902 level, which is the upper boundary of a smaller 1:1 pattern; according to the Overbalance methodology, this supports the scenario of further declines toward the January lows. To signal a shift to an uptrend, prices would need to break above the 0.8042 level; however, this is not the base case scenario at this time.

USDCHF – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

Currency Hedger April 13, 2026 No Comments

USD/JPY – Price Strength beyond 160.00 awaited amid bullish technical setup

USD/JPY struggles to build on modest Asian session gains as intervention fears limit JPY losses.
The fundamental backdrop favors the USD bulls and backs the case for further gains for the pair.
The technical setup also suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside.

The USD/JPY pair builds on gains from the past two days and opens with a bullish gap at the start of the new week, rising to the 159.85 region during the Asian session. However, intervention fears keep a lid on any further appreciation for spot prices.

Failed US-Iran peace talks trigger a fresh wave of the global risk-aversion trade and benefit the US Dollar’s (USD) reserve currency status. Adding to this, rallying Crude Oil prices fuel inflationary fears and reaffirm hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, which further underpins the buck and offers support to the USD/JPY pair.

The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, is weighed down by economic concerns stemming from imported energy shocks due to the Middle East conflict. However, speculations that authorities would step in to stem further JPY weakness hold back bearish traders from placing aggressive bets and cap gains for the USD/JPY pair.

Spot prices retain a bullish bias following last week’s resilience below the 158.25-158.20 horizontal support. Furthermore, the USD/JPY pair holds comfortably above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 63 suggests firm upside momentum without yet signaling overbought conditions.

Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turns increasingly positive, hinting that buyers retain control for now. The USD/JPY bulls, however, might await a sustained strength and acceptance above the 160.00 psychological mark before positioning for an extension of a three-day-old appreciating move.

On the downside, initial support is reinforced by the 200-period SMA at 158.56, which underpins the broader uptrend and would be the first level watched in the event of a corrective pullback. This is followed by the 158.25-158.20 support and the 158.00 mark, which, if broken, could turn the USD/JPY pair vulnerable.

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Currency Hedger April 13, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD Price Rebounds to near 1.1700 as bullish bias prevails

EUR/USD may face key resistance near 1.1750 at the upper ascending channel boundary.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 56 signals positive momentum.
The immediate support lies at the 50-day EMA near 1.1640.

EUR/USD edges higher after opening at a gap down, trading around 1.1690 during the Asian hours on Monday. The daily chart technical analysis indicates a bullish bias, as the pair is rising within an ascending channel.

The EUR/USD pair holds a modest bullish bias as it stays above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). This constructive positioning is backed by a 14-day Relative Strength Index near 56, which suggests positive but not overstretched momentum, leaving room for further upside while the pair remains supported on dips.

On the upside, the EUR/USD pair may find its primary barrier at the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.1750, followed by the eight-week high of 1.1834, reached on February 23. Further advances above this confluence resistance zone would lead the pair in exploring the region around 1.2082, the highest since June 2021, reached on January 27.

The EUR/USD pair may find the immediate support at the 50-day EMA of 1.1640, aligned with the nine-day EMA of 1.1636. A break below these averages would weaken the price momentum and expose the lower ascending channel boundary around 1.1500, followed by the eight-month low of 1.1411, recorded on March 13.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.32%	0.46%	0.27%	0.17%	0.45%	0.28%	0.35%
EUR	-0.32%		0.12%	-0.04%	-0.14%	0.11%	-0.03%	0.07%
GBP	-0.46%	-0.12%		-0.17%	-0.29%	-0.02%	-0.17%	-0.10%
JPY	-0.27%	0.04%	0.17%		-0.15%	0.14%	-0.03%	0.11%
CAD	-0.17%	0.14%	0.29%	0.15%		0.32%	0.13%	0.19%
AUD	-0.45%	-0.11%	0.02%	-0.14%	-0.32%		-0.15%	-0.02%
NZD	-0.28%	0.03%	0.17%	0.03%	-0.13%	0.15%		0.10%
CHF	-0.35%	-0.07%	0.10%	-0.11%	-0.19%	0.02%	-0.10%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).