Technical Analysis 20 - Currency Hedger

Currency Hedger July 8, 2026 No Comments

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Hawkish remarks from RBA’s Hunter lift Australian Dollar

AUD/USD rises to near 0.6943 as the Australian Dollar outperforms.
RBA’s Hunter signals that the central bank is committed to bringing inflation back to the target.
Investors await the FOMC Minutes and China’s CPI data for June.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades 0.23% higher to near 0.6943 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The Aussie pair gains as the Australian Dollar outperforms its major currency peers, except the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keeping the door open for further monetary policy tightening, if needed, to bring inflation back to the central bank’s target.

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.03%	0.03%	0.15%	-0.02%	-0.21%	-0.50%	0.03%
EUR	0.03%		0.05%	0.17%	-0.00%	-0.18%	-0.49%	0.05%
GBP	-0.03%	-0.05%		0.13%	-0.03%	-0.25%	-0.52%	-0.03%
JPY	-0.15%	-0.17%	-0.13%		-0.18%	-0.34%	-0.65%	-0.15%
CAD	0.02%	0.00%	0.03%	0.18%		-0.18%	-0.48%	0.02%
AUD	0.21%	0.18%	0.25%	0.34%	0.18%		-0.30%	0.18%
NZD	0.50%	0.49%	0.52%	0.65%	0.48%	0.30%		0.49%
CHF	-0.03%	-0.05%	0.03%	0.15%	-0.02%	-0.18%	-0.49%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

Earlier in the day, RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said that the central bank will act as needed to bring inflation back to target, even as the recent oil shock has yet to produce a marked slowdown in economic activity.

This year, the RBA has already delivered three interest rate hikes of 25 basis points (bps) and has pushed the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.35%.

Going forward, investors will focus on China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be released on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar trades marginally lower ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting, which will be published at 18:00 GMT. Investors will pay close attention to FOMC minutes to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.

AUD/USD technical analysis

AUD/USD trades higher at around 0.6944 at press time. However, the near-term tone is mildly bearish as it holds below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 0.6967. The pair’s inability to reclaim this nearby EMA resistance suggests topside attempts remain capped, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.75 stays below the midline, hinting at subdued but not extreme selling pressure.

On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered at the 20-period EMA at 0.6967, which needs to be overcome to shift the near-term bias toward recovery and open the way for a more sustained rebound. Looking down, the June 30 low at 0.6865 is the key support zone; a break below that would open further downside towards the March 30 low at 0.6833.

Currency Hedger July 8, 2026 No Comments

EUR/JPY Price Rebounds above confluence around 185.00, moving averages

EUR/JPY eyes the primary barrier at the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle around 185.80.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index is at 52.81, hinting at neutral-to-firm momentum.
The currency cross could find the initial support at the VWAP of 185.20.

EUR/JPY pares its recent losses from the previous day, trading around 185.30 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross is retaining a mildly bullish bias as it holds above the Volume-weighted Average Price (VWAP) and a cluster of Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), with the 50-day EMA acting as nearby trend support.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52.81 sits just above its midline, hinting at steady, rather than aggressive, upside momentum while price remains supported by these underlying levels.

Daily chart technical analysis shows the EUR/JPY cross consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, signaling that both buyers and sellers are growing increasingly aggressive as they compress the price into a narrowing range. This tight consolidation reflects a temporary balance of power, with neither side establishing clear control over the market’s direction just yet.

The initial barrier lies at the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle around 185.80. A break above the triangle would cause the bullish emergence and expose the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

On the downside, primary support lies at the VWAP at 185.20, followed by the 50-day EMA at 184.95 and the nine-day EMA at 184.93. Further declines would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to test the symmetrical triangle’s lower boundary around 183.70. A break below the triangle would expose the four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the six-month low of 180.81.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY — EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.02%	0.02%	0.15%	-0.03%	-0.22%	-0.49%	0.01%
EUR	0.02%		0.05%	0.19%	-0.01%	-0.19%	-0.47%	0.04%
GBP	-0.02%	-0.05%		0.13%	-0.05%	-0.25%	-0.51%	-0.03%
JPY	-0.15%	-0.19%	-0.13%		-0.18%	-0.35%	-0.64%	-0.15%
CAD	0.03%	0.00%	0.05%	0.18%		-0.18%	-0.47%	0.03%
AUD	0.22%	0.19%	0.25%	0.35%	0.18%		-0.28%	0.19%
NZD	0.49%	0.47%	0.51%	0.64%	0.47%	0.28%		0.49%
CHF	-0.01%	-0.04%	0.03%	0.15%	-0.03%	-0.19%	-0.49%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger July 7, 2026 No Comments

USD/CHF Price – Resistance at 0.8075 remains in focus as dips find buyers

USD/CHF remains bid above 0.8050, with 0.8075 resistance under pressure.
The Swiss Franc remains on the back foot after the downbeat Swiss employment report released on Monday.
Technically, the pair is in an A-B-C correction, following a 5-wave bullish cycle.

The US Dollar (USD) trades higher for the second consecutive day against the Swiss Franc (CHF). Downdside attempts remain shallow so far, amid a calm market mood, and the immediate trend shows a mild bullish stance, with resistance at the 0.8075 area under pressure.

On the macroeconomic front, data from the Swiss National Bank revealed that Foreign Currency Reserves rose to CHF759 billion in June, from CHF 711 billion in May.

The Swissie, however, remains weighed by the downbeat employment figures released on Monday, which showed that the Unemployment Rate rose to a five-year high of 3.1%. Later in the day, the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) met expectations with solid growth in activity, while the S&P Global Services PMI revealed an unexpected slowdown.

Technical Analysis: Looking for direction above 0.8050

USD/CHF is in a corrective phase after completing a 5-wave (Elliot Wave) bullish cycle, with momentum indicators showing mixed signals. The daily chart reflects a constructive Relative Strength Index (14), near 58, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped marginally into negative territory.

Bulls need to break resistance around 0.8075 (June 26, 30 lows and July 6 high) to confirm the completion of the corrective phase, and shift focus towards the late June and early July highs, between 0.8120 and 0.8135.

On the downside, a bearish reaction below 0.8045 session lows would add pressure towards Friday’s trading floor at the 0.8010 area. If this level gives way, an A-B=C-D correction would target the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement off the bullish run, just above 0.7900.

Swiss Franc Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies this week. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.10%	-0.23%	0.37%	0.17%	-0.06%	0.39%	0.43%
EUR	-0.10%		-0.36%	0.26%	0.04%	-0.13%	0.25%	0.28%
GBP	0.23%	0.36%		0.50%	0.39%	0.23%	0.61%	0.63%
JPY	-0.37%	-0.26%	-0.50%		-0.24%	-0.32%	0.02%	0.02%
CAD	-0.17%	-0.04%	-0.39%	0.24%		-0.10%	0.27%	0.24%
AUD	0.06%	0.13%	-0.23%	0.32%	0.10%		0.38%	0.41%
NZD	-0.39%	-0.25%	-0.61%	-0.02%	-0.27%	-0.38%		0.02%
CHF	-0.43%	-0.28%	-0.63%	-0.02%	-0.24%	-0.41%	-0.02%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger July 7, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD Price – Turns broadly sideways below 20-day EMA

EUR/USD edges down to near 1.1433 as the US Dollar ticks higher.
The FOMC Minutes of the June meeting will be the major driver for the US Dollar this week.
The ECB seems to be following the Fed’s footsteps, refusing to deliver remarks on the monetary policy outlook.

The EUR/USD pair trades marginally lower at around 1.1433 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair faces slight selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) edges up, while investors await the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting on Wednesday.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly higher to near 100.92.

Investors keep an eye on the FOMC Minutes to identify reasons probably responsible for restricting policymakers from delivering forward guidance on monetary policy decisions.

In the June monetary policy press conference, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said that policymakers agreed that the “so-called forward guidance is not well suited to the current policy conjuncture.

Like the Fed, officials from the European Central Bank (ECB) also appear not in favor of delivering remarks regarding the monetary policy outlook.

Over the weekend, ECB Governing Council member Emmanuel Moulin also denied providing cues regarding the central bank’s decision in July, while speaking at the Rencontres Economiques conference in Aix-en-Provence. “We are not doing forward guidance so I won’t say what we will do in July,” Moulin said.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD trades lower at around 1.1430, keeping a bearish near-term tone as the pair holds beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1460. The fact that price remains under this short-term trend gauge suggests rallies are still being capped, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 41.9 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting at lingering downside pressure rather than a decisive recovery.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA around 1.1460, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open the way for a stronger rebound. Looking up, the pair could advance to the psychological level of 1.1500 if it breaks above the moving average.

On the downside, the yearly low around 1.1330 will be the key support zone; a break below it would expose the pair to the 29 May 2025 low at 1.1210.

Currency Hedger July 7, 2026 No Comments

AUD/USD – Eases from two-week top; 38.2% Fibo. near 0.6955 holds the key

AUD/USD attracts sellers after a modest Asian session uptick to a two-week high.
The mixed technical setup warrants caution before placing fresh directional bets.
A move beyond the 38.2% Fibo. is needed to back the case for a meaningful upside.

The AUD/USD retreats slightly from the 0.6960 area, or a two-week high, touched during the Asian session on Tuesday, and, for now, seems to have snapped a three-day winning streak. The intraday downtick, however, lacks bearish conviction, warranting caution before confirming that a one-week-old recovery move from a three-month low has run out of steam.

From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair, so far, has been struggling to make it through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November 2025-May 2026 rally. Furthermore, mixed momentum oscillators make it prudent to wait for a sustained move beyond the said barrier before positioning for an extension of the recent bounce from the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support near 0.6870.

In fact, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive, hinting at a slight improvement in the upside momentum. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 42 suggests only modest directional pressure, consistent with a consolidative bias around current levels, warranting some caution for aggressive bullish traders as renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz support the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, initial support emerges at the 50% retracement at 0.6853, ahead of a deeper structural floor at the 61.8% Fibo. near 0.6752, with 0.6608 and 0.6425 marking subsequent retracement and cycle-low supports if selling extends. On the topside, a break above the 38.2% Fibo. at 0.6954 would open the way toward the 23.6% retracement barrier at 0.7079, while the cycle high around 0.7282 stands as a more distant objective should bullish momentum gain traction.

AUD/USD daily chart

Australian Dollar Price Last 7 Days

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.13%	-0.99%	-0.10%	0.04%	-0.83%	-0.85%	-0.25%
EUR	0.13%		-0.88%	0.04%	0.15%	-0.71%	-0.66%	-0.12%
GBP	0.99%	0.88%		0.93%	1.01%	0.15%	0.21%	0.75%
JPY	0.10%	-0.04%	-0.93%		0.17%	-0.69%	-0.64%	-0.18%
CAD	-0.04%	-0.15%	-1.01%	-0.17%		-0.87%	-0.80%	-0.28%
AUD	0.83%	0.71%	-0.15%	0.69%	0.87%		-0.01%	0.59%
NZD	0.85%	0.66%	-0.21%	0.64%	0.80%	0.01%		0.51%
CHF	0.25%	0.12%	-0.75%	0.18%	0.28%	-0.59%	-0.51%

Currency Hedger July 6, 2026 No Comments

Goldman Sachs turns even more bearish on yen

Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its forecasts for the USD/JPY pair, becoming one of the most bearish investment banks on the Japanese currency. The bank’s strategists now expect the exchange rate to rise from their previous 12-month target of 155 to 165 yen per U.S. dollar, which would mark the weakest level for the yen since 1986—nearly 40 years ago.

Key Takeaways

Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month USD/JPY forecast from 155 to 165.
The bank also lifted its 3-month forecast from 160 to 162 and its 6-month target from 158 to 163.
The yen remains close to its weakest levels in four decades, with USD/JPY currently trading around 162.
According to Bloomberg’s survey, Goldman is now among the most bearish institutions on the Japanese currency.
Options markets imply roughly a 72% probability that USD/JPY reaches 165 by June next year.
Hedge funds are holding their largest net short positions in the yen since 2017.

Why Does Goldman Expect Further Yen Weakness?

According to Goldman Sachs FX strategist Karen Reichgott Fishman, three key factors are driving the bank’s revised outlook:

persistently high U.S. Treasury yields,
mounting fiscal pressures in Japan,
and the Bank of Japan’s very gradual pace of interest rate hikes.

At the same time, Goldman acknowledges that the yen already appears significantly undervalued based on its fundamental valuation models. However, that alone is not enough to trigger a sustained recovery. The bank argues that the wide interest rate differential between the United States and Japan, together with the divergence in monetary policy, continues to strongly favor the U.S. dollar.

Carry Trades Remain a Major Driver

Goldman Sachs continues to favor using the yen as the preferred funding currency for carry trades. The strategy is straightforward:

investors borrow low-cost yen,
sell the currency in the FX market,
and invest the proceeds in higher-yielding assets such as U.S. bonds or emerging-market currencies.

As long as the Bank of Japan maintains relatively accommodative financial conditions, carry trades are likely to remain attractive, adding further depreciation pressure on the yen.

Can Japan Stop USD/JPY From Rising?

Goldman remains skeptical about the effectiveness of future currency interventions. Although Japan’s Ministry of Finance has hinted that future interventions could become less predictable, the bank believes even direct yen-buying operations would likely generate only a temporary correction. Unless there is a meaningful decline in U.S. Treasury yields, a more hawkish Bank of Japan, or a significant narrowing of the U.S.-Japan interest rate gap, the fundamental drivers of yen weakness are likely to remain firmly in place.

Markets Are Increasingly Pricing in USD/JPY at 165

One notable aspect of Goldman’s outlook is how closely it aligns with broader market positioning. Currently:

hedge funds hold their largest net short yen positions in eight years,
FX derivatives imply roughly a 72% probability of USD/JPY reaching 165 by the middle of next year,
and an increasing number of investors view shorting the yen as one of the most crowded trades in global currency markets.

While this reinforces the prevailing uptrend, it also increases the risk of sharp corrections should expectations for the Federal Reserve or the Bank of Japan change unexpectedly.

What Could Change the Outlook?

The key near-term event will be the release of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes. Investors will focus primarily on:

signals regarding future Fed rate cuts,
the direction of U.S. Treasury yields,
upcoming Bank of Japan policy decisions,
and the possibility of intervention by Japanese authorities.

A hawkish set of Fed minutes could strengthen the U.S. dollar further, putting renewed pressure on both the yen and the euro. Conversely, weaker U.S. economic data could lower Treasury yields and provide temporary relief for non-dollar currencies.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis (D1)

USD/JPY remains in a strong uptrend and continues to trade within a well-defined ascending price channel. The lower boundary of the channel is currently located near 158, a level that was last tested in May. In the short term, resistance is seen around 162.8 , corresponding to the pair’s recent swing highs. A sustained break above this level could reinforce bullish momentum, while a rejection may trigger another pullback toward the lower boundary of the ascending channel. 165 level i now probably the strongest resistance zone.

Currency Hedger July 6, 2026 No Comments

EUR/JPY Price Tests 185.00 after breaking above moving averages

EUR/JPY could test the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle around 185.90.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index is at 51, hinting at neutral-to-firm momentum.
Initial support aligns with the 50-day EMA of 184.91.

EUR/JPY gains ground for the second successive day, trading around 185.00 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross holds a constructive near-term bias as it trades above the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) is reinforcing underlying demand around 184.31. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 51, reflecting neutral-to-firm momentum as the spot price solidifies above key dynamic support levels.

The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests that the EUR/JPY cross is remaining within the symmetrical triangle, indicating that both buyers and sellers are becoming increasingly aggressive, squeezing the price into a tighter and tighter range. Neither side has taken control yet, creating a temporary balance of power.

Further advances would support the EUR/JPY cross to test the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle around 185.90. A break above the triangle would cause the bullish emergence and expose the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

On the downside, initial support lies at the 50-day EMA of 184.91, followed by the nine-day EMA at 184.71. Further declines would expose the symmetrical triangle’s lower boundary around 183.60, followed by the four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the six-month low of 180.81.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.02%	0.05%	0.29%	0.07%	0.13%	0.37%	0.11%
EUR	-0.02%		0.03%	0.26%	0.05%	0.12%	0.38%	0.09%
GBP	-0.05%	-0.03%		0.22%	-0.02%	0.04%	0.32%	0.07%
JPY	-0.29%	-0.26%	-0.22%		-0.23%	-0.16%	0.06%	-0.12%
CAD	-0.07%	-0.05%	0.02%	0.23%		0.05%	0.31%	0.07%
AUD	-0.13%	-0.12%	-0.04%	0.16%	-0.05%		0.26%	0.04%
NZD	-0.37%	-0.38%	-0.32%	-0.06%	-0.31%	-0.26%		-0.26%
CHF	-0.11%	-0.09%	-0.07%	0.12%	-0.07%	-0.04%	0.26%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger July 6, 2026 No Comments

AUD/USD Price Retreats from 38.2% Fibo. hurdle; holds above 0.6900

AUD/USD kicks off the new week on a weaker note, snapping a two-day winning streak.
The mixed technical setup warrants caution before placing aggressive directional bets.
A convincing break below the 200-day SMA is needed to confirm a negative outlook.

The AUD/USD pair meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Monday and, for now, seems to have snapped a two-day winning streak to the 0.6950 region, or a one-and-a-half-week high touched on Friday. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.6920 area, down 0.20% for the day, as tensions over the Strait of Hormuz drive some safe-haven flows towards the US Dollar (USD).

The AUD/USD pair fails near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November 2025-May 2026 rally, stalling its recovery from a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), or a three-month low set last week. The latter is near the 50% retracement level, suggesting a constructive near-term bias as long as these supports remain intact. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned slightly positive, hinting at recovering upside momentum.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 39 still reflects only modest demand after the recent pullback. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying and a sustained strength beyond the 38.2% Fibo. hurdle near 0.6950 before traders start positioning for any further near-term appreciating move for the AUD/USD pair. The 23.6% retracement at 0.7077 could act as the next notable barrier if buyers extend the advance.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 200-day SMA around 0.6869, followed by the 50.0% retracement near 0.6851. A convincing break below this area would expose deeper Fibonacci supports at 0.6750 and 0.6607 before the broader base around 0.6424.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

AUD/USD daily chart

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.01%	0.05%	0.28%	0.06%	0.15%	0.34%	0.09%
EUR	-0.01%		0.04%	0.26%	0.05%	0.14%	0.33%	0.09%
GBP	-0.05%	-0.04%		0.22%	-0.02%	0.06%	0.30%	0.07%
JPY	-0.28%	-0.26%	-0.22%		-0.23%	-0.13%	0.04%	-0.11%
CAD	-0.06%	-0.05%	0.02%	0.23%		0.07%	0.29%	0.07%
AUD	-0.15%	-0.14%	-0.06%	0.13%	-0.07%		0.22%	-0.00%
NZD	-0.34%	-0.33%	-0.30%	-0.04%	-0.29%	-0.22%		-0.23%
CHF	-0.09%	-0.09%	-0.07%	0.11%	-0.07%	0.00%	0.23%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).