AUD/JPY drifts higher to around 112.40 in Thursday’s early European session.
Broader positive outlook prevails above the 100-day SMA, but temporary sell-off cannot be ruled out with bearish RSI momentum.
The first upside barrier emerges at 113.62; the initial support level is located at 112.25.
The AUD/JPY cross gains ground near 112.40 during the early European session on Thursday, bolstered by the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Macquarie analysts said the Australian central bank is likely to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged next week while delivering a hawkish message that reinforces market expectations for an interest-rate increase in August.
Nonetheless, the potential upside for the cross might be limited amid intervention fears from Japanese authorities. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama issued a verbal warning, saying that the government is monitoring speculative moves and remains prepared to take decisive measures to prevent the domestic currency weakness.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), keeping the broader uptrend technically supported despite the latest pullback toward the lower Bollinger Band at 112.26. However, the Relative Strength Index (14) around 39 leans toward bearish momentum, suggesting recent downside pressure is not yet fully spent even as price clings to its underlying trend support.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger middle band near 113.62, with the upper band up at 115.00 acting as the next hurdle if buyers regain control. On the downside, immediate support is reinforced by the lower Bollinger Band at 112.25, ahead of the more strategic 100-day SMA at 111.75, where a sustained break would hint at a deeper corrective phase within the broader bullish structure.
The Indian Rupee trades calmly at open against the US Dollar; however, the outlook has become uncertain.
The exchange of attacks between the US and Iran has renewed Middle East tensions.
Investors await the US-India CPI data for May.
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens almost flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday. The USD/INR pair consolidates around 95.42; however, the outlook of the pair has turned bullish as Middle East tensions have flared up again, following the United States (US) retaliation against Iran over the shooting down of an American helicopter.
Renewed US-Iran tensions have offered support to oil prices. As of writing, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on June 18 is up 0.8% to near 8,490. Oil prices also clawed back half of their early losses on Tuesday after sliding to 8,212.
Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high oil price environment.
US strikes after Trump vows retaliation over the shooting down of an Apache helicopter over Hormuz
On late Tuesday, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that it launched a series of attacks on Iran’s air defense, ground control stations, and surveillance radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply. The US was expected to conduct military operations against Iran as President Donald Trump vowed retaliation for shooting down a US Apache helicopter over Hormuz.
In response, Iran has launched missiles on various US airbases in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain, and has warned Washington to leave the Gulf region for their own safety.
“Powerful armed forces will not ignore any attack or threat,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said, adding, “Get out of our region if you want to be safe.”
FIIs remain net sellers on all trading days so far in June
Overseas investors continue to dump their stake in the Indian stock market, as Middle East tensions continue to hurt their sentiment towards risky assets. So far in June, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers in all trading days of June and have offloaded their stake worth Rs. 60,529.36 crore.
US-India CPI data under spotlight
Later in the day, investors will pay close attention to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to show that the headline CPI grew at an annualized pace of 4.2%, faster than 3.8% in April. In the same period, the core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy items – is expected to have risen at a faster pace of 2.9% against the previous reading of 2.8%.
Signs of price pressures accelerating further would prompt expectations of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate hikes for the year. As of now, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of the Fed delivering at least one interest rate hike this year are almost 72%.
Meanwhile, India’s CPI data on Friday is expected to arrive higher at 4% YoY from 3.48% in April.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR trades in a Symmetrical Triangle formation
USD/INR trades almost flat at around 95.43 at press time. The Symmetrical Triangle formation and pair’s stickiness to the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 95.46, reflects that the immediate trend has turned sideways.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) wobbles inside the 40.00-60.00 zone, suggesting indecisiveness among investors.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located near the downward-sloping border of the above-mentioned chart pattern at around 96.00. A decisive break above 96.00 would open the door for further upside towards the all-time high at 97.10. On the downside, initial support is seen at the upward support trend-line break level near 95.04, ahead of the structural trend-line origin around 94.49; a sustained drop below these marks would open the way for a deeper corrective phase, while holding above them would keep the broader constructive pattern intact.
EUR/JPY gains ground to around 185.20 in Wednesday’s early European session.
Likelihood of hawkish stance hikes from the ECB supports the Euro.
The cross keeps the bullish vibe, but consolidation cannot be ruled out in near term with neutral RSI momentum.
The first upside barrier emerges at 186.05; the initial support level is located at 185.15.
The EUR/JPY cross gathers strength to near 185.20 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) would raise rates at its June policy meeting on Thursday.
The ECB is set to raise its key interest rate for the first time in almost three years on Thursday, becoming the first of its peers to tighten policy in response to a jump in energy prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East. While money markets are already pricing in a second 25 basis points (bps) hike for September, economists expect the ECB to maintain a “gently hawkish” but highly data-dependent tone without pre-committing to a fixed path.
“Lagarde may provide some indication of the ECB’s next move after she muddled communication on the rate outlook in March. We expect her to be clearer than in the past that a second hike may be in the pipeline,” said Simona Delle Chiaie, chief euro-area economist at Bloomberg. Any hawkish comments from ECB policymakers could lift the EUR against the JPY in the near term.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, EUR/JPY holds a constructive near-term bias as it consolidates just above the Bollinger middle band and remains comfortably over the 100-day simple moving average, suggesting underlying demand on dips. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 49.99 is effectively neutral, hinting at a pause rather than exhaustion after the recent grind higher.
On the topside, the immediate hurdle is the Bollinger upper band near 186.05, where fresh selling interest could emerge. The next hurdle is seen at the February 9 high of 186.24, en route to the January 23 high of 186.88. On the downside, initial support is seen at the Bollinger middle band around 185.15, ahead of the 100-day SMA at 184.50, while a deeper pullback towards the lower Bollinger band near 184.25 would be expected to attract buyers as long as the broader bullish structure is preserved.
USD/CNH trades marginally lower to near 6.7750 as the US Dollar edges down.
China’s CPI remains steady at 1.2% YoY in May, misses 1.3% estimates.
Investors await the US inflation data for May.
The USD/CNH pair trades slightly lower to near 6.7750 during the early European trading session on Wednesday. The pair faces selling pressure due to continued outperformance by the Chinese Yuan (CNY), being a trade surplus economy.
On Tuesday, China’s Trade Balance data for May also came in stronger than projected. Trade Balance arrived at $105.43 Billion, higher than the $92.1 Billion estimate and the previous reading of $84.82 Billion. Imports grew strongly by 27.4%, while they were anticipated to rise moderately by 25% vs. the prior release of 25.3%. While Exports rose 19.4% against expectations of 15% and the previous release of 14.1%.
Meanwhile, China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May has remained steady at an annualized pace of 1.2%, while it was expected to grow at a faster pace of 1.3%.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.12% lower to near 99.87 ahead of the United States (US) CPI data for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The US headline inflation is expected to come in higher at 4.2% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 3.8% in April.
USD/CNH technical analysis
USD/CNH trades lower at around 6.7763, extending the downside bias as spot holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 6.7867. The pair trading below this short-term average suggests sellers retain control, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 42 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting at lingering bearish momentum rather than an oversold condition.
On the topside, immediate resistance is now aligned with the 20-day EMA at 6.7867, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease current downside pressure and open the way for a more sustained recovery. On the downside, the pair could slide further towards 6.7500 if it falls below the June 2 low at 6.7580.
Monday’s rise in energy commodity prices proved short-lived, weighing further on the Norwegian currency. The USDNOK pair is approaching the 9.50 level, which was last seen two months ago. Aside from headlines coming out of the Middle East, tomorrow’s scheduled releases of May inflation data from both Norway and the US should take center stage for the pair.
Geopolitics
The weekend exchange of fire between Israel and Iran has cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire currently in place across the region. Under pressure from Washington, both sides halted further strikes. However, the situation remains highly uncertain, which could sustain high volatility in the prices of key energy commodities.
Macroeconomic Data
Tomorrow’s readings are expected to show core inflation remaining unchanged at 3.2%, alongside a slight decline in the headline figure to 3.1% in Norway. An upside surprise could raise expectations for further monetary policy tightening by Norges Bank. As a reminder, the central bank delivered its first interest rate hike since 2023 back in May, reacting to rapidly rising inflation expectations, persistently elevated wage growth, and the concerning stickiness of core inflation. Meanwhile, the headline CPI figure in the United States is expected to edge upward to 4.2%. The consensus also forecasts a modest increase in the core metric to 2.9%. Investors have already fully priced in a Fed rate hike for 2026. A further build-up of price pressures could increase the likelihood of this hike occurring as early as this autumn.
Technical Analysis
Chart 1: USDNOK (01.07.2025 – 09.06.2026)
Source: xStation, 09.06.2026
After establishing a new local low at the 9.13 level, a strong and aggressive demand-driven rebound ensued. The first two key technical resistance levels have been broken. The price has approached the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, which could serve as a crucial test for the ongoing upward trend. The strong momentum of the move is reflected in technical indicators. The RSI is currently hovering around 67 points, signaling that the market is gradually entering overbought territory, which could trigger a temporary pause in momentum.
Key Levels to Watch:
To the Upside: If buyers manage to sustain the price above the tested 50% Fibo level, the next natural target for the market could be the 9.56 level, where both the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 100 EMA coincide.
To the Downside: Conversely, a sustained rejection of the current resistance level would mean anticipating a return to the primary trend and a retest of lower support levels.
GBP/USD rises to near 1.3375 as the US Dollar corrects sharply.
US President Trump sees a total victory over Iran in the next two weeks.
Investors await the US CPI data for May and the UK GDP data for April.
The GBP/USD pair trades 0.26% higher at around 1.3375 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The Cable gains as the US Dollar (USD) declines amid expectations that the United States (US) could reach a deal with Iran soon.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.12%
-0.20%
-0.03%
-0.14%
-0.26%
-0.54%
-0.20%
EUR
0.12%
-0.06%
0.09%
-0.02%
-0.11%
-0.40%
-0.06%
GBP
0.20%
0.06%
0.17%
0.06%
-0.07%
-0.32%
0.00%
JPY
0.03%
-0.09%
-0.17%
-0.11%
-0.22%
-0.50%
-0.16%
CAD
0.14%
0.02%
-0.06%
0.11%
-0.11%
-0.37%
-0.05%
AUD
0.26%
0.11%
0.07%
0.22%
0.11%
-0.26%
0.06%
NZD
0.54%
0.40%
0.32%
0.50%
0.37%
0.26%
0.32%
CHF
0.20%
0.06%
-0.01%
0.16%
0.05%
-0.06%
-0.32%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.17% lower to near 99.83.
On late Monday, US President Donald Trump expressed confidence that a “total victory” on Iran can be announced in two weeks, adding it would lead to a sharp decline in oil prices. The statement from Trump came after Iran agreed to halt attacking the Israeli territory, which led to a sharp decline in oil prices.
The US Dollar has outperformed in the past few months as elevated oil prices due to the energy supply crisis prompted the US inflation and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets.
The appeal of currencies from economies, such as the United Kingdom (UK), which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, improves when oil prices start falling.
Going forward, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May and the UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for April, which will be released on Wednesday and Friday, respectively.
GBP/USD technical analysis
GBP/USD trades higher at around 1.3375 at the press time. However, the near-term tone remains bearish as it holds below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at 1.3428. The pair sits between an upward support trend line break around 1.3312 and the reclaimed downward resistance trend line reference at 1.3593, exhibiting a broader sideways trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 42 leans soft, hinting that downside pressure persists even if not yet overstretched.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-EMA around 1.3430, and a sustained break above this barrier would open the way toward the former downtrend resistance line reference near 1.3590. On the downside, immediate support emerges at the prior uptrend support break zone around 1.3301, and a drop below there would expose lower levels. The major support area would be the April 7 low at 1.3217, followed by the March 31 low at 1.3159.
The British Pound (GBP) is struggling as mounting political uncertainty and deteriorating economic indicators complicate the United Kingdom’s outlook. Ahead of the key Gross Domestic Product (GDP) April data to be released on Friday, financial markets are balancing the risk of an economic contraction against the probability of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE) to rein in energy-driven inflation.
With internal political friction intensifying due to a high-stakes leadership challenge within the ruling Labour Party, major financial institutions are turning increasingly cautious on the Pound’s near-term trajectory.
GBP/USD daily chart. Source: FXStreet.
Sluggish economic growth and fiscal concerns threaten to drag Pound lower
Macro strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) warn that the combination of a potentially contracting UK economy and stagflationary pressures leaves the British Pound deeply exposed to a downward correction against the US Dollar. They emphasize that while anticipated central bank interventions may try to curb price pressures, structural damage to the UK’s fiscal credibility from potential political reshuffling could rapidly worsen a currency undershoot.
We expect GBP/USD to fall to 1.3100, reflecting a stronger US growth outlook relative to the UK. BOE rate hikes in a sluggish growth, high inflation environment, is not bullish for GBP but should help cushion the downside.
Uncertainty over the next BoE moves
Economists at Societe Generale suggest that any near-term political noise surrounding Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham’s bid for the Labour leadership will likely yield limited radical change. On the monetary front, they acknowledge that while hawkish voices within the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) are pushing hard for an immediate rate increase, the broader consensus will likely favor a more conservative wait-and-see strategy.
We expect these members [those opting for a rate hike] to remain in the minority and for the BoE to keep rates on hold in June.
Banks anticipate a downward-biased trajectory for the British Pound
The banks anticipate a soft trend for the British Pound. Brown Brothers Harriman maintains an explicitly bearish outlook, forecasting a drop to the 1.3100 mark for the GBP/USD
The pair is trading above the 100-period moving average from H1 interval
Recommendation: Trade: Long position on USDSEK market price Target: 9.4750 Stop: 9.3740
Opinion:
USDSEK reached a key technical support yesterday which is marked with a lower limit of 1:1 structure. The level is being tested again today and should buyers manage to hold the price above, the main sentiment remains bullish. The support at 9.3990 is also marked by the 100-period exponential moving average from H interval. According to the Overbalance methodology, as long as the price sits above the 9.3990, one should expect price to continue the upward move. We recommend going long USDSEK at market price with a target of 9.4750. We also recommend placing a stop loss order at 9.3740.
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