Technical Analysis 9 - Currency Hedger

Currency Hedger May 5, 2026 No Comments

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Bulls hesitant above 1.3600 as Oil prices counter USD strength

USD/CAD stalls a two-day-old recovery move from a nearly two-month trough amid mixed cues.
Elevated Oil prices underpin the Loonie, while rising US-Iran tensions benefit the safe-haven USD.
The technical setup, too, warrants some caution before positioning for any meaningful upside.

The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on a two-day-old recovery move from the 1.3550 area, or its lowest level since March 10, and oscillates in a range during the Asian session on Tuesday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3620 area amid a combination of diverging forces.

The risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East amid the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz acts as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices, which is seen underpinning the commodity-linked Loonie. This, along with the lack of follow-through US Dollar (USD) buying, keeps a lid on the USD/CAD pair. However, persistent geopolitical uncertainties and hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations favor the USD bulls, backing the case for a further appreciating move for the currency pair.

The USD/CAD pair is holding a mildly bearish near-term bias as it remains capped beneath the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. The said hurdle at 1.3650 coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the late March-early May downfall and should act as a pivotal point. Momentum indicators are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index nearing the neutral territory at 51 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) marginally positive.

The technical setup, in turn, hints at fading downside pressure but not yet a clear bullish reversal while the USD/CAD pair trades below the aforementioned confluence hurdle. A sustained strength beyond, however, should pave the way for further gains towards the 38.2% retracement at 1.3710 and the 50.0% level at 1.3758. The momentum could extend further towards the 61.8% level at 1.3806, which is the prevailing supply zone on the topside.

On the downside, the next meaningful support aligns with the recent swing low around 1.3553, where buyers may attempt to rebuild a base should selling pressure resume.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

USD/CAD 4-hour chart

Currency Hedger May 5, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Tests 50-day EMA support after slipping below 1.1700

EUR/USD tests immediate support at the 50-day EMA near 1.1682.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index nears 50 underscores neutral momentum.
The immediate barrier lies at the nine-day EMA around 1.1706.

EUR/USD moves little after two days of losses, trading around 1.1690 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The daily chart technical analysis indicates a potential for a bearish reversal, as the pair is testing the lower boundary of the ascending channel.

However, a neutral near-term stance prevails as the EUR/USD pair hovers just above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but is capped by the nine-period EMA. This tight EMA split suggests consolidation rather than a clear trend.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 50 reinforces the idea of balanced momentum after the recent recovery.

The EUR/USD pair is testing the immediate support at the 50-day EMA of 1.1682, aligned with the lower ascending channel boundary. A sustained break below the channel would put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the region around the nine-month low of 1.1411, recorded on March 13.

On the upside, the immediate barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.1706. A break above the short-term average would support the pair to the 11-week high of 1.1849, reached on April 17, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.1960. Further advances above the channel would lead the pair to explore the region around 1.2082, the highest since June 2021, reached on January 27.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.01%	0.00%	-0.03%	-0.04%	0.04%	0.05%	-0.04%
EUR	0.01%		0.00%	-0.02%	-0.03%	0.04%	0.05%	-0.01%
GBP	-0.01%	-0.00%		-0.02%	-0.05%	0.05%	0.05%	-0.02%
JPY	0.03%	0.02%	0.02%		-0.01%	0.06%	0.08%	0.03%
CAD	0.04%	0.03%	0.05%	0.01%		0.08%	0.08%	0.02%
AUD	-0.04%	-0.04%	-0.05%	-0.06%	-0.08%		0.02%	-0.04%
NZD	-0.05%	-0.05%	-0.05%	-0.08%	-0.08%	-0.02%		-0.07%
CHF	0.04%	0.01%	0.02%	-0.03%	-0.02%	0.04%	0.07%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger May 4, 2026 No Comments

Chart of The Day – EUR/USD

The EUR/USD exchange rate is trading around 1.1719 on Monday, and despite seemingly positive industrial data, the eurozone is sending out worrying signals. The final reading of the PMI index for the manufacturing sector stood at 52.2 points in April, up from 51.6 a month earlier, which at first glance looks like a solid improvement. In reality, however, the rise in manufacturing activity is not driven by real demand, but by increased stockpiling by firms seeking to secure goods against further shortages and price rises resulting from the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. This is a seemingly positive result, which in fact says more about the fear of supply chain disruptions than about the actual strength of the European economy. The devil is in the details, and it is these details that are shaping the outlook for both growth and inflation in the eurozone.

Delivery delays have reached their worst level since July 2022, input cost inflation has risen to a 46-month high, and price pressures are increasingly being passed on to selling prices, marking the largest monthly jump since records began in 1997. As a result, the ECB faces a real dilemma: the data suggest a recovery, but leading indicators of producer sentiment and expectations merely confirm the growing risk of stagflation. For EUR/USD, this implies an environment of heightened uncertainty, in which the exchange rate may be prone to sharp movements depending on further signals from the Fed and the ECB, and any stronger US inflation data could push the pair back towards the support level at 1.1650.

On the EUR/USD daily chart, following a sharp rally to around 1.2060 at the start of the year, the exchange rate underwent a significant correction that brought prices down to lows around 1.1380, from where a rebound occurred.

Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1719, oscillating near the 50-day EMA (1.1681) and the 100-day EMA (1.1678), which together form a dynamic support zone, while the 200-day EMA at 1.1634 serves as another line of defense for the bulls. Bollinger Bands indicate narrowing volatility, with the upper band at 1.1771 and the lower band at 1.1669, signaling a potential breakout in the coming sessions. The RSI is hovering around the neutral level of 52, which does not provide a clear directional signal and suggests that the market is still looking for momentum for a decisive move above the resistance at 1.1800 or a deeper correction toward the aforementioned 200-day EMA support.

Currency Hedger May 4, 2026 No Comments

EUR/GBP Price Forecasts: Euro remains vulnerable below 0.8640

EUR/GBP recovery attempt from 0.8620 lows remains limited below 0.8640.
The Pound is outperforming the Euro, with risk appetite subdued.
Euro bears remain in control, with the 2026 low near 0.8610 at a short distance.

The Euro (EUR) opens the week on a soft note against the British Pound (GBP). The pair shows moderate losses, as Friday’s upside attempt from the 0.8620 lows failed to find acceptance above a previous support area at 0.8640, which leaves the year-to-date low, at 0.8611, exposed

The Pound shows a slightly better performance than the Euro on a cautious start to the week, with all eyes on the Strait of Hormuz, after US President Donald Trump flagged a military operation to free vessels of neutral nations stranded in the critical waterway, but without providing further details.

The UK economic calendar is thin on Monday. In Europe, April’s final HCOB Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is expected to confirm a moderate expansion in the sector’s activity, while the Sentix Index will provide details about investors’ confidence ahead of speeches by some European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers.

Technical Analysis: Previous support at 0.8640 is holding bulls

EUR/GBP remains stalled below the confluence of a reverse trendline from late March highs and the area between 0.8630 and 0.8640, which supported bears on March 23, 24, and 26.

Technical indicators in 4-hour charts are in bearish territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 38 signals weak demand rather than oversold stress, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram fluctuates around the zero line, hinting at sluggish momentum.

Failure to extend recovery past 0.8640 leaves the 2026 low, at 0.8611 (March 19 low), on the bears’ focus. Further down, the next target is the August 2025 low, at 0.8596. On the upside, a confirmation above 0.8640 would shift the focus towards the April 27 and 28 lows, around 0.8655, and the April 24 high, near 0.8685.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.06%	-0.01%	-0.09%	0.06%	0.07%	-0.13%	-0.05%
EUR	0.06%		0.01%	-0.04%	0.12%	0.14%	-0.06%	-0.01%
GBP	0.00%	-0.01%		-0.06%	0.11%	0.12%	-0.11%	-0.01%
JPY	0.09%	0.04%	0.06%		0.12%	0.11%	-0.10%	-0.02%
CAD	-0.06%	-0.12%	-0.11%	-0.12%		-0.01%	-0.22%	-0.12%
AUD	-0.07%	-0.14%	-0.12%	-0.11%	0.00%		-0.24%	-0.14%
NZD	0.13%	0.06%	0.11%	0.10%	0.22%	0.24%		0.09%
CHF	0.05%	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%	0.12%	0.14%	-0.09%

Currency Hedger May 4, 2026 No Comments

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds above 1.1700 as bullish potential seems intact

EUR/USD struggles to capitalize on a modest bullish gap at the start of a new week.
The technical setup favors bulls and backs the case for some upside in the near-term.
A break below the 1.1650-1.1645 confluence is needed to negate the positive bias.

The EUR/USD pair attracts some intraday sellers following a modest Asian session uptick to mid-1.1700s and fills a major part of a bullish gap at the start of a new week. Spot prices, however, manage to hold above the 1.1700 round figure, warranting some caution before positioning for an extension of Friday’s retracement slide from a one-and-a-half week top.

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair holds a modest bullish bias as it trades above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, suggesting dips are being absorbed for now. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 53 points to mildly positive but not overstretched momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains slightly in positive territory. This hints that upside pressure is present but not yet impulsive.

However, Friday’s pullback makes it prudent to wait for a sustained strength and acceptance above the 1.1750 area, or the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April upswing, before positioning for further gains. A subsequent hurdle is aligned at the recent cycle high area at 1.1847.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 38.2% retracement around 1.1692, followed by a key confluence zone formed by the 200-period SMA at 1.1648 and the 50.0% retracement at 1.1644. A deeper pullback could then target the 61.8% level at 1.1596, ahead of 1.1528 and 1.1441.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Currency Hedger May 4, 2026 No Comments

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Weakens below 113.00, while broader uptrend remains intact

AUD/JPY weakens to around 112.95 in Monday’s early European session.
The cross keeps bullish vibe above the 100-day EMA, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out in near term.
The immediate resistance level emerges at 113.40; the initial support level is seen at 112.00.

The AUD/JPY cross loses ground near 112.95 during the early European session on Monday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) softens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as uncertainty surrounding Middle East tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz boosts safe-haven assets.

US President Donald Trump announced the US will begin guiding ships through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday, per CNN. Meanwhile, Iranian official Ebrahim Azizi warned that the plan is a violation of the ceasefire.

On the other hand, markets expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to deliver a third straight interest rate hike on Tuesday. The primary driver is a significant jump in headline inflation in March, fueled by global energy shocks and Middle East tensions.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY maintains a constructive bullish bias as spot holds well above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), keeping the broader uptrend intact despite the latest pullback from recent highs. Price is also trading above the lower Bollinger Band, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 50.8 has eased back to neutral territory, hinting at a consolidation phase rather than an outright reversal.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the 20-day Bollinger middle band at 113.40. A sustained break above this pivot would expose the April 28 high of 114.72, en route to the upper Bollinger band near 115.18 as the next bullish target. On the downside, immediate support is seen around the 112.00 psychological level, followed by the lower Bollinger band at 111.65; a deeper correction towards the 100-day EMA at 109.37 would still be consistent with a broader bullish structure while offering a potentially stronger demand zone.

Currency Hedger May 4, 2026 No Comments

Top 3 Price Prediction: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple – BTC extends rally, ETH and XRP near key resistance zones

Bitcoin extends gains on Monday after taking a breather in the previous week.
Ethereum approaches the 200-day EMA, a decisive close above this level could open the door for an upside move.
XRP hovers near the $1.40 resistance zone, a breakout above this barrier may trigger a fresh rally.

Bitcoin (BTC) pushes higher on Monday, trading above $80,000 and resuming its uptrend after a brief consolidation phase last week. Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) follow BTC’s footsteps and extend gains at the start of the week, nearing their key resistance zones, where a breakout suggests a fresh rally ahead.

Bitcoin hits $80,000

Bitcoin price is trading at $80,161 on Monday, retaining a constructive bias as it holds above a dense support band defined by the 50% retracement at $78,962 (drawn from the January high to the February low) and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $75,903. The shorter-term 50-day EMA around $74,448 reinforces the underlying uptrend.

Momentum remains firm, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart hovers in bullish territory near 66, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned higher and returned to positive territory, hinting that buyers still control the near-term tone despite the proximity to major overhead barriers.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 200-day EMA around $81,912, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $83,437 and a more prominent horizontal cap near $84,410; a daily close above this cluster would open the way toward the January highs around $97,924.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the psychological $80,000 handle, with the 50% retracement at $78,962 as the first substantive floor; a deeper pullback would expose a broader demand area between the 100-day EMA at $75,903, the prior channel top near $75,680, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge while the broader bullish structure remains intact.

Ethereum could extend gains if it closes above the 50-day EMA

Ethereum is trading at $2,370 on Monday, maintaining a constructive near-term bias as price holds above the 50-day and 100-day EMA at roughly $2,256 and $2,344, respectively. ETH, however, is approaching a dense Fibonacci barrier, with the 38.2% retracement at $2,380 capping the immediate topside, while higher retracements and the 200-day EMA, clustered around $2,575, reinforce broader overhead supply.

A rising RSI on the daily chart near 58 suggests firm but not overstretched bullish momentum, while the negative yet improving MACD histogram hints that downside pressure is fading within this developing up-leg.

On the upside, initial resistance is located at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $2,380, beyond which the $2,575 area forms a critical confluence zone, combining the 50% retracement at $2,575 with the 200-day EMA at $2,575; a daily close above this cluster would open the way toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $2,770.

On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 100-day EMA at $2,344, followed by the 50-day EMA at $2,256, while the upper boundary of the horizontal parallel channel around $2,148 and the 23.6% retracement at $2,138 guard the broader bullish structure, with only a drop toward the channel floor near $1,747 threatening the medium-term uptrend.

XRP is near key resistance at $1.40

XRP price is trading at $1.41 on Monday, is hovering just above the 50-day EMA at $1.40, which lends initial trend support, but it remains well below the 100-day EMA at 1.50 and the broader downward parallel channel cap near $1.54, keeping the medium-term tone capped within a broader corrective structure.

The RSI at 53 suggests mildly positive but not overstretched momentum, while the MACD has slipped slightly into negative territory, hinting that upside traction may be fading as price consolidates under higher EMAs.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 100-day EMA around $1.50, followed by the upper boundary of the descending channel near $1.55; a sustained break above these would be needed to challenge the 200-day EMA at $1.74 and the more distant horizontal barrier at $1.90.

On the downside, the 50-day EMA at $1.40 underpins the market as first support, ahead of the horizontal floor at $1.30, while the channel base down at $0.73 marks the broader structural support zone in the event of a deeper pullback.

Currency Hedger May 4, 2026 No Comments

Indian Rupee inches higherahead of HSBC Manufacturing PMI, state election results

USD/INR steadies as traders assess progress in US–Iran talks amid lingering geopolitical uncertainty.
Indian Rupee may gain support from improved sentiment and easing oil prices.
Focus is on the four-state election results, with Narendra Modi’s party projected to win two, boosting his standing.

USD/INR loses ground after registering modest gains in the previous trading day, hovering around 94.90 during the Asian hours on Monday. Traders evaluate progress in the United States (US)–Iran peace negotiations. HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be eyed later in the day.

The Indian Rupee (INR) may find some support from improved market sentiment as mediation efforts to end the war have continued, as the conflict in Iran enters its third month. Iran said it is reviewing Washington’s response to its latest 14-point proposal, boosting optimism for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. Trump suggested that Tehran’s latest peace proposal may fall short of expectations, Bloomberg reported Sunday.

The INR may also face fewer challenges as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price remains in the negative territory for the third successive day, trading around $98.30 per barrel at the time of writing. It is important to note that India is a major oil importer, and cheaper oil reduces US Dollar demand by oil companies.

Crude oil prices struggled after a Sunday report by Bloomberg indicated that Donald Trump said the United States would begin guiding neutral ships trapped in the Persian Gulf out through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday. The initiative is intended to help civilian vessels from non-aligned countries exit the contested waterway and resume normal operations.

The Rupee remains under sustained pressure, caught in a feedback loop of high oil prices that have dented sentiment, driven heavier importer hedging, and sustained dollar demand from refiners.

Elevated crude has also sidelined foreign investors from Indian equities. Portfolio outflows neared about $6.5 billion in April, taking cumulative 2026 withdrawals to about $20.6 billion, exceeding all of 2025 and adding to dollar demand, according to Reuters.

Indian equities opened higher on Monday, aided by softer oil prices, while key state election results remain in focus. Vote counting began across four major states, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party projected to win two, boosting his standing midway through his third term.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR eyes 95.00 near fresh record highs

USD/INR trades around 94.90 at the time of writing on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates an ongoing neutral bias as the pair remains within the rectangular channel.

However, the USD/INR pair holds above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating a bullish near-term bias. The alignment of shorter- over longer-dated EMAs hints at sustained upside pressure, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 64 stays in bullish territory without yet signaling extreme overbought conditions.

The USD/INR pair may retest the upper boundary of the rectangle, aligned with the all-time high of 95.33, which was recorded on April 30. On the downside, the initial support lies at the nine-day EMA of 94.48. A break below the short-term average would lead the pair to test the 50-day EMA at 93.10, followed by the lower rectangle boundary around 92.50 and a seven-week low of 92.14.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Indian Rupee.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	INR
USD		-0.10%	-0.09%	-0.33%	-0.01%	-0.13%	-0.37%	0.03%
EUR	0.10%		-0.03%	-0.24%	0.09%	0.02%	-0.27%	0.00%
GBP	0.09%	0.03%		-0.23%	0.11%	0.00%	-0.25%	0.19%
JPY	0.33%	0.24%	0.23%		0.29%	0.15%	-0.09%	0.21%
CAD	0.01%	-0.09%	-0.11%	-0.29%		-0.14%	-0.39%	-0.09%
AUD	0.13%	-0.02%	-0.01%	-0.15%	0.14%		-0.28%	0.02%
NZD	0.37%	0.27%	0.25%	0.09%	0.39%	0.28%		0.44%
INR	-0.03%	0.00%	-0.19%	-0.21%	0.09%	-0.02%	-0.44%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).