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EUR/USD Price – Turns broadly sideways below 20-day EMA

  • EUR/USD edges down to near 1.1433 as the US Dollar ticks higher.
  • The FOMC Minutes of the June meeting will be the major driver for the US Dollar this week.
  • The ECB seems to be following the Fed’s footsteps, refusing to deliver remarks on the monetary policy outlook.

The EUR/USD pair trades marginally lower at around 1.1433 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair faces slight selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) edges up, while investors await the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting on Wednesday.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly higher to near 100.92.

Investors keep an eye on the FOMC Minutes to identify reasons probably responsible for restricting policymakers from delivering forward guidance on monetary policy decisions.

In the June monetary policy press conference, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said that policymakers agreed that the “so-called forward guidance is not well suited to the current policy conjuncture.

Like the Fed, officials from the European Central Bank (ECB) also appear not in favor of delivering remarks regarding the monetary policy outlook.

Over the weekend, ECB Governing Council member Emmanuel Moulin also denied providing cues regarding the central bank’s decision in July, while speaking at the Rencontres Economiques conference in Aix-en-Provence. “We are not doing forward guidance so I won’t say what we will do in July,” Moulin said.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD trades lower at around 1.1430, keeping a bearish near-term tone as the pair holds beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1460. The fact that price remains under this short-term trend gauge suggests rallies are still being capped, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 41.9 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting at lingering downside pressure rather than a decisive recovery.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA around 1.1460, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open the way for a stronger rebound. Looking up, the pair could advance to the psychological level of 1.1500 if it breaks above the moving average.

On the downside, the yearly low around 1.1330 will be the key support zone; a break below it would expose the pair to the 29 May 2025 low at 1.1210.

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Euro languishes at one-year lows against the British Pound despite positive German data

  • EUR/GBP holds losses around 0.8540, despite a sharp increase in German Industrial Production.
  • Factory output rose 0.9% in Germany in May, beyond the 0.2% expected by the market.
  • The Euro has dropped more than 1% in about a week, as markets pare back ECB tightening hopes.

The Euro (EUR) has failed to draw support from the upbeat German industrial figures released earlier on Tuesday and consolidates losses at one-year lows against the British Pound (GBP). The EUR/GBP pair trades at 0.8540, its lowest price since July last year, after falling from levels above 0.8600 last week.

Data released by the German statistics office on Tuesday showed that  Industrial Production increased 0.9% in May, more than twice April’s 0.4% rise, and well above the 0.2% increase forecasted by the market analysts.

In the UK, the Lloyds House Price Index, released at the same time, has shown a 0.2% increase in June, following a 0.1% contraction in May, also beating expectations of a 0.1% rise. Year-over-year, housing prices accelerated to a 0.6% growth, from the 0.5% seen in May, according to the Lloyds report.

The Euro loses support from ECB’s monetary policy

The pair has depreciated more than 1% since last week, as soft German consumer price data suggested that inflationary pressures from the Middle East war might have already peaked, easing pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to hike interest rates in the near term.

ECB President Christine Lagarde refused to commit to any particular rate path at a central bankers’ summit in Sintra last week. Her comments pointing to levelled risks for growth and inflation and denying second-round effects on inflation, however, suggest that the bank is likely to stand pat in July after June’s rate hike.

This has deprived the Euro of the favourable monetary policy divergence between the ECB and the Bank of England (BoE), which is not expected to change its monetary policy in the coming months.

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EUR/JPY Price Tests 185.00 after breaking above moving averages

  • EUR/JPY could test the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle around 185.90.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index is at 51, hinting at neutral-to-firm momentum.
  • Initial support aligns with the 50-day EMA of 184.91.

EUR/JPY gains ground for the second successive day, trading around 185.00 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross holds a constructive near-term bias as it trades above the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) is reinforcing underlying demand around 184.31. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 51, reflecting neutral-to-firm momentum as the spot price solidifies above key dynamic support levels.

The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests that the EUR/JPY cross is remaining within the symmetrical triangle, indicating that both buyers and sellers are becoming increasingly aggressive, squeezing the price into a tighter and tighter range. Neither side has taken control yet, creating a temporary balance of power.

Further advances would support the EUR/JPY cross to test the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle around 185.90. A break above the triangle would cause the bullish emergence and expose the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

On the downside, initial support lies at the 50-day EMA of 184.91, followed by the nine-day EMA at 184.71. Further declines would expose the symmetrical triangle’s lower boundary around 183.60, followed by the four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the six-month low of 180.81.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.02%0.05%0.29%0.07%0.13%0.37%0.11%
EUR-0.02%0.03%0.26%0.05%0.12%0.38%0.09%
GBP-0.05%-0.03%0.22%-0.02%0.04%0.32%0.07%
JPY-0.29%-0.26%-0.22%-0.23%-0.16%0.06%-0.12%
CAD-0.07%-0.05%0.02%0.23%0.05%0.31%0.07%
AUD-0.13%-0.12%-0.04%0.16%-0.05%0.26%0.04%
NZD-0.37%-0.38%-0.32%-0.06%-0.31%-0.26%-0.26%
CHF-0.11%-0.09%-0.07%0.12%-0.07%-0.04%0.26%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

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EUR/USD Price – Trades cautiously higher near mid-1.1400s amid mixed setup

  • EUR/USD gains positive traction for the second straight day amid a modest USD weakness.
  • Receding bets for an interest rate hike by the Fed weigh on the USD and support the pair.
  • The technical setup warrants some caution for bulls before positioning for additional gains.

The EUR/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Friday, stalling the previous day’s modest pullback from the 1.1470-1.1475 region, or a nearly two-week high. Spot prices currently trade just below mid-1.1400s and seem poised to register gains for the first time in three weeks as receding US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets keep the US Dollar (USD) depressed.

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair struggled to find acceptance above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June downfall and faced rejection near the ascending channel resistance on Thursday. Against the backdrop of the recent decline, the said upward-sloping channel constitutes the formation of a bearish flag pattern. This keeps a capped tone beneath the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, which reinforces the overhead supply zone.

Meanwhile, momentum indicators point to a mildly constructive backdrop. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering just below 60, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is slightly positive. Nevertheless, it will still be prudent to wait for a sustained strength above the 23.6% Fibo. level before placing fresh bullish bets on the EUR/USD pair and positioning for an extension of the recent recovery from the 1.1325 region, or the lowest level since May 2025.

The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the channel top at 1.1466. Above that, the 200-period EMA at 1.1516 and the 38.2% retracement at 1.1525 form a broader barrier ahead of deeper Fibonacci caps at 1.1587 and 1.1649. On the downside, the first notable support emerges at the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.1371, with the previous channel starting area near 1.1325 acting as a secondary floor if bearish pressure extends.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis EUR/USD

US Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.47%-1.16%-0.35%-0.18%-0.68%-1.08%-0.91%
EUR0.47%-0.75%0.13%0.26%-0.23%-0.67%-0.50%
GBP1.16%0.75%0.90%1.01%0.51%0.07%0.25%
JPY0.35%-0.13%-0.90%0.16%-0.34%-0.64%-0.59%
CAD0.18%-0.26%-1.01%-0.16%-0.50%-0.80%-0.67%
AUD0.68%0.23%-0.51%0.34%0.50%-0.43%-0.26%
NZD1.08%0.67%-0.07%0.64%0.80%0.43%0.15%
CHF0.91%0.50%-0.25%0.59%0.67%0.26%-0.15%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Approaches 1.1400 as bearish flag remains in play

  • EUR/USD attracts some buyers and moves away from the weekly low.
  • The upside seems limited as traders keenly await the US NFP report.
  • The bearish setup backs the case for the emergence of fresh sellers.

The EUR/USD pair ticks higher during the Asian session on Thursday, though it lacks bullish conviction as traders keenly await the release of the crucial US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1385 area and remain close to the weekly low, touched on Wednesday.

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair retains a negative near-term bias beneath the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. Adding to this, the recent recovery from the lowest level since May 2025 has been along an upward-sloping channel, which constitutes the formation of a bearish flag pattern.

Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (14) near 42.5 and a slightly negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading hint at fading bullish momentum. Momentum indicators together reinforce the near-term bearish outlook and suggest that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair remains to the downside.

The EUR/USD pair holds just above the lower boundary of the rising parallel channel at 1.1366. This, however, points to only a tentative structural support, and a convincing break below would open the way for a slide. Spot prices might then aim towards retesting the year-to-date trough, around the 1.1335-1.1330 region, touched in June.

On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the upper edge of the upward parallel channel at 1.1451, ahead of stronger supply at the 200-period EMA clustered around 1.1522. The EUR/USD pair would need to reclaim the said barriers to ease the broader bearish tone and shift the technical picture toward a more constructive outlook.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis EUR/USD
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EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Edges lower below 185.00, while near-term bullish bias holds

  • EUR/JPY posts modest losses near 184.95 in Thursday’s early European session.
  • The cross keeps a bullish near-term tone, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out amid neutral RSI momentum.
  • The first upside barrier is seen at 185.00; the initial support level to watch is 184.90.

The EUR/JPY cross trades on a negative note around 184.95 during the early European session on Thursday. Eurozone inflation fell more than expected in June, easing pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise rates at its next meeting on July 23. This, in turn, could weigh on the Euro (EUR) against the Japanese Yen (JPY).

Data released by Eurostat on Wednesday showed that Eurozone inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), dropped to 2.8% YoY in June from 3.2% in May. This figure came in below the consensus of 3.0%.

Morgan Stanley economists said softer Eurozone June inflation could also “lower the bar a touch for the ECB to be on hold in September,” adding that energy pressures likely had a “limited” direct impact on eurozone prices.

Following Wednesday’s print, traders continued to anticipate the ECB to deliver another quarter-point rate rise by the end of this year, according to Morningstar.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/JPY holds above the Bollinger Bands middle line and the 100-day moving average, keeping a mildly bullish near-term tone as price gravitates near recent highs. The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers around 50, suggesting balanced momentum and favoring a continuation of range-bound gains rather than an impulsive breakout.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 185.00 psychological level, en route to the June 30 high of 185.86. The next hurdle emerges at the Bollinger Bands upper band near 186.15, where bullish attempts could meet profit-taking. 

On the downside, initial support is seen at the Bollinger middle band at 184.90, followed by the 100-day moving average at 184.65; a deeper pullback would expose the lower Bollinger band support around 183.65.

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EUR/USD Price – Weakens to near 1.1400 as ECB hike bets recede, bearish vibe prevails

  • EUR/USD weakens to around 1.1410 in Wednesday’s early European session.
  • The negative outlook of the major pair remains intact below the 100-day SMA, with bearish RSI momentum.
  • The immediate resistance level is seen at 1.1485; the first downside target to watch is 1.1320.

The EUR/USD pair trades on a negative note near 1.1410 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. Cooling inflation in Germany has lowered expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes, weighing on the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD).

Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation fell to 2.3% in June, down from 2.6% in May, according to Destatis on Tuesday. This figure came in softer than the market expectations of 2.5%. ECB President Christine Lagarde last week said that there was no need for “forceful” action, citing falling energy prices and the lack of “second-round” effects like higher wage demands that could further stoke inflation.

Traders brace for the preliminary reading of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) from the Eurozone. In case of hotter-than-expected outcomes, this could lift the shared currency in the near term.

On the US docket, the ADP Employment and ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reports will be published later on Wednesday. All eyes will be on the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Thursday, which is expected to show 111,000 job additions in June.

Chart Analysis EUR/USD

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/USD maintains a bearish near-term tone as it holds below the 20-day Bollinger simple moving average (SMA) and the 100-day moving average (MA). The pair is drifting near the lower half of the recent Bollinger envelope, while the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 36 suggests weak, still-negative momentum rather than an immediate oversold condition.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 20-day Bollinger SMA near 1.1485, followed by the 100-day MA around 1.1632 and the upper Bollinger band close to 1.1650, which together outline a dense supply zone capping recovery attempts. On the downside, the June 29 low of 1.1381 acts as the next notable support. Any follow-through selling below this level could expose further weakness toward lower Bollinger band at approximately 1.1320, followed by the 1.1300 psychological level. 

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EUR/JPY Price – Eyes 186.00 amid constructive bullish bias

  • EUR/JPY could test the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle around 186.00.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 57 indicates firm bullish momentum, leaving plenty of room for further gains.
  • Initial support sits at VWAP and clustered EMAs just below 185.50, providing a solid floor for buyers.

EUR/JPY moves little after four days of gains, trading around 185.70 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross is maintaining a constructive bullish bias as it holds above the session Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) at 185.29 and both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) around 184.95–184.99. This positioning suggests dip-buying interest remains in place.

Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 57.0 points to firm but not overextended upside momentum, leaving room for further gains as long as price stays supported above these nearby averages.

The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests that the EUR/JPY cross is positioned near the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle around 186.00, indicating that the asset is gearing up for a potential breakout. Further advances above the triangle would strengthen the bullish bias and support the currency cross to test the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

On the downside, initial support aligns first with the VWAP and clustered EMAs just below 185.50. A break below this confluence support zone would expose the symmetrical triangle’s lower boundary around 183.50, followed by the four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the six-month low of 180.81.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.16%0.21%0.16%0.16%0.42%0.19%0.13%
EUR-0.16%0.04%-0.02%-0.00%0.27%0.00%-0.04%
GBP-0.21%-0.04%-0.04%-0.03%0.21%-0.05%-0.06%
JPY-0.16%0.02%0.04%-0.02%0.27%-0.01%-0.04%
CAD-0.16%0.00%0.03%0.02%0.28%-0.00%-0.02%
AUD-0.42%-0.27%-0.21%-0.27%-0.28%-0.27%-0.29%
NZD-0.19%-0.01%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.27%-0.02%
CHF-0.13%0.04%0.06%0.04%0.02%0.29%0.02%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).