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Trade of The Day – EUR/CHF

Facts:

  • The pair returned below the horizontal resistance area at 0.9220
  • EURCHF is trading below the 100-period exponential moving average from D1 interval

Recommendation: Trade: Short EURCHF at market price Target: 0.8995 Stop: 0.9272

Opinion:

Looking at EURCHF on the D1 interval, one can see a potential downward trend resumption. Following a break above the 1:1 geometry, the pair quickly returned below the upper limit of the aforementioned 1:1 structure. According to the Overbalance methodology, the main trend remains downward. In addition the pair sits below the 100-period moving average from the D1 interval. We recommend going short USDCAD at market price with a target of 0.8995. We also recommend placing a stop loss order at 0.9272.

Source: xStation

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EUR/JPY Trades Flat Around 183.75

  • EUR/JPY trades calmly amid hopes that Japan could intervene again.
  • Japan’s Mimura said that he will closely monitor the forex markets.
  • The risk-on impulse has improved the Euro’s appeal.

The EUR/JPY pair trades in a tight range around 183.75 during the Asian trading session on Thursday. The pair struggles for a direction as investors remain on the sidelines amid hopes that Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) could intervene again.

Japan’s Vice Finance Minister (FM) for International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, Atsushi Mimura, said earlier in the day, that he will closely monitor the foreign exchange (FX) markets. However, Mimura declined to comment on specific levels where an intervention could take place.

While there has been no official confirmation from Japan that it has intervened in markets to counter one-way speculative moves against the Japanese Yen (JPY) in the last few trading days, there have been strong upside moves in the Asia-Pacific currency on April 30 and May 6.

Although they’ve not commented officially, I think we have to assume that the MoF stepped in again,” analysts at Pepperstone said, adding, “You don’t get a huge move like that, with no obvious catalyst, unless there’s a ‘silent hand’ involved, Reuters report.

Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) trades broadly firm as the risk-on impulse remains boosted amid firm hopes of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. An Axios report has shown that Washington is close to reaching a deal with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war.

Going forward, investors will focus on European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s speech, which is scheduled for Friday, for fresh cues on the monetary policy outlook.

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EUR/USD trades above mid-1.1700s, close to two-week top 

  • EUR/USD stalls the previous day’s late pullback from over a two-week high amid a weaker USD.
  • US-Iran peace deal hopes and fading hawkish Fed expectations continue to undermine the buck.
  • Traders look to second-tier macro data for some impetus ahead of the US NFP report on Friday.

The EUR/USD pair attracts some dip-buying during the Asian session on Thursday and stalls the previous day’s late pullback from the 1.1800 neighborhood, or over a two-week high. Spot prices currently trade just above mid-1.1700s, up nearly 0.10% for the day, and remain at the mercy of the US Dollar (USD) price dynamics.

The US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s upbeat US employment data-inspired bounce from a nearly three-week low and remains depressed for the second straight day amid hopes for a US-Iran peace deal. In fact, the ADP report showed that private-sector employment grew by 109K in April, compared to a downwardly revised reading of 61K in the previous month. This, however, was offset by the optimism over a potential agreement to end the Iran war.

US President Donald Trump struck an optimistic tone on Wednesday, saying that negotiations had made progress over the past 24 hours and that Iran wants to make a deal. Adding to this, Axios, citing two US officials, reported that the White House was nearing a deal with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the conflict. This, along with fading hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, undermines the USD’s reserve currency status and supports the EUR/USD pair.

However, according to the CME Group’s CME FedWatch Tool, traders are still pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate hike by the end of this year. Furthermore, investors reassess the likelihood of a possible Iran-US peace deal amid major disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program. This keeps investors on edge and could act as a tailwind for the Greenback, warranting caution before placing aggressive bullish bets around the EUR/USD pair and positioning for any further appreciating move.

Traders now look to the second-tier macro data – German Factory Orders, French Trade Balance, US Challenger Job Cuts, and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims – for some impetus. The focus, however, will remain glued to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Apart from this, fresh developments surrounding the Middle East crisis might continue to infuse volatility, which, in turn, will drive the USD and produce trading opportunities around the EUR/USD pair.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.12%-0.11%-0.19%-0.02%-0.15%-0.16%-0.10%
EUR0.12%0.01%-0.06%0.11%-0.04%-0.04%0.02%
GBP0.11%-0.01%-0.08%0.08%-0.05%-0.06%0.00%
JPY0.19%0.06%0.08%0.16%0.03%-0.02%0.10%
CAD0.02%-0.11%-0.08%-0.16%-0.13%-0.14%-0.08%
AUD0.15%0.04%0.05%-0.03%0.13%-0.00%0.05%
NZD0.16%0.04%0.06%0.02%0.14%0.00%0.06%
CHF0.10%-0.02%-0.00%-0.10%0.08%-0.05%-0.06%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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Currency Talk – USD/CAD, NZD/USD, EUR/NZD

Key takeaways

  • What is the technical outlook for USDCAD, NZDUSD, and EURNZD?

This analysis from the Overbalance series aims to identify three financial instruments, analysed primarily on the daily/four-hour (D1/H4) timeframe. The analysis utilises only the Overbalance methodology, which helps to identify points where a trend may continue or where a reversal may occur. Today’s analysis covers three instruments, assessed solely in terms of 1:1 correction structures.

USDCAD

USDCAD prices have been on a downward trend since the beginning of April. The chart shows a 1:1 pattern with a range of around 80 pips. Although the latest pattern has been slightly breached, the price has not exceeded the 127.2% level, which, according to the Overbalance methodology, indicates that the downward trend remains intact. The current correction has stalled around 1.3630, where the upper boundary of the 1:1 pattern is located. Until this level is broken, the scenario of further declines remains in place.

USDCAD – H4 timeframe. Source: xStation

NZDUSD

Since 6 April, NZDUSD has been trading within a local uptrend. The lower boundary of the pattern at 0.5840 has recently been tested twice. This level was only slightly breached, but the price failed to return below the polarity of the previously negated downward pattern at 0.5828, which led to the emergence of another upward impulse. According to the Overbalance methodology, the uptrend remains in place, and the key support level remains at 0.5865, derived from the lower boundary of the green 1:1 pattern. The pattern remains valid as it has only been slightly breached but not negated.

NZDUSD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

EURNZD

Since 7 April, the EURNZD has been trading in a downtrend. The price attempted to break through the support level at 1.9969 on several occasions and eventually both broke through it and negated the 1:1 upward trend, confirming the bearish scenario. In the event of a correction, the key short-term resistance remains at 1.9930. If the downward movement continues, the lows from February and March at 1.9540 remain a potential target for selling.

EURNZD – H4 chart. Source: xStation

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Trade of The Day – EUR/GBP

Facts: EURGBP bounced off the 1:1 structure at 0.8647 The pair is trading below the 100-period exponential moving average foram H1 interval Recommendation: Trade: Short position on EURGBP at market price Target: 0.8620, 0.8611 Stop Loss: 0.8655

Opinion: EURGBP has been trading in a downward trend recently. Taking a look at the H1 internal, we can see that the pair bounced off the key resistance, signaling a potential bearish trend resumption. The resistance at 0.8647 is marked with the upper limit of 1:1 structure. In addition the price sits below the 100- period moving average. According to the Overbalance strategy, as long as the price sits below the 0.8647 resistance, one should expect the price to continue to fall. Taking this into account, we recommend going short EURGBP at market price with two targets: 0.8620 and 0.8611. We also recommend placing a stop loss at 0.8655. Source: xStation5

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EUR/GBP: Political strains and BoE doubts – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister argues that recent strength in the Pound (GBP) is unlikely to last, as ambitious Bank of England (BoE) rate expectations and renewed political risks weigh on the outlook. The bank forecasts EUR/GBP rising towards 0.89 in coming weeks, while GBP/USD is seen gradually appreciating over the longer term, with current Pound levels not expected to be revisited until 2027.

BoE repricing and UK politics threaten Pound

“Of the G10 currencies, the pound is one of only five to have posted a positive performance since the start of the war, alongside the four major commodity exporters. This surprising performance is based on two factors: the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to respond very decisively, and the political risk premium was priced out in early March. However, we doubt the sustainability of these factors, which is why we expect the pound to weaken in the coming months.”

“Instead of anticipating two rate cuts by the end of the year, the market has at times priced in more than three rate hikes. This massive correction naturally gave the pound a strong boost.”

“We doubt that the Bank of England will meet these expectations.”

“The BoE may raise rates once, but the focus is likely to shift back to rate cuts in the second half of the year. If the market moves in this direction as well, the GBP gains driven by ambitious rate expectations will likely be priced out again.”

“Given the ambitious BoE expectations and the ongoing political risks, we believe there is a strong possibility that the pound will come under pressure again in the coming weeks. Although EUR/GBP is now trading close to the 0.86 level again, if the local elections yield a poor result for Labour, the exchange rate is likely to trend towards 0.89.”

“Nevertheless, political risks are unlikely to persist indefinitely, so we expect a recovery to begin in the second half of the year. But the current level is unlikely to be reached again until 2027.”

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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Tests 50-day EMA support after slipping below 1.1700

  • EUR/USD tests immediate support at the 50-day EMA near 1.1682.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index nears 50 underscores neutral momentum.
  • The immediate barrier lies at the nine-day EMA around 1.1706.

EUR/USD moves little after two days of losses, trading around 1.1690 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The daily chart technical analysis indicates a potential for a bearish reversal, as the pair is testing the lower boundary of the ascending channel.

However, a neutral near-term stance prevails as the EUR/USD pair hovers just above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but is capped by the nine-period EMA. This tight EMA split suggests consolidation rather than a clear trend.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 50 reinforces the idea of balanced momentum after the recent recovery.

The EUR/USD pair is testing the immediate support at the 50-day EMA of 1.1682, aligned with the lower ascending channel boundary. A sustained break below the channel would put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the region around the nine-month low of 1.1411, recorded on March 13.

On the upside, the immediate barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.1706. A break above the short-term average would support the pair to the 11-week high of 1.1849, reached on April 17, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.1960. Further advances above the channel would lead the pair to explore the region around 1.2082, the highest since June 2021, reached on January 27.

EUR/USD: Daily Chart

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.01%0.00%-0.03%-0.04%0.04%0.05%-0.04%
EUR0.01%0.00%-0.02%-0.03%0.04%0.05%-0.01%
GBP-0.01%-0.00%-0.02%-0.05%0.05%0.05%-0.02%
JPY0.03%0.02%0.02%-0.01%0.06%0.08%0.03%
CAD0.04%0.03%0.05%0.01%0.08%0.08%0.02%
AUD-0.04%-0.04%-0.05%-0.06%-0.08%0.02%-0.04%
NZD-0.05%-0.05%-0.05%-0.08%-0.08%-0.02%-0.07%
CHF0.04%0.01%0.02%-0.03%-0.02%0.04%0.07%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).