Eurostat will publish the preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for April and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2026 later on Thursday at 09:00 GMT.
Eurozone HICP inflation is expected to inch higher to 2.9% year-over-year (YoY) in April, from 2.6% in March. Meanwhile, the annual core inflation is anticipated to remain consistent at 2.3% in the reported month.
The monthly Eurozone inflation and core inflation were at 1.3% and 0.8%, respectively, in March.
Meanwhile, seasonally adjusted flash Eurozone GDP is projected to rise 0.2% QoQ in Q1, unchanged from the prior reading, while annual growth is seen slowing to 0.9% from 1.2%.
How could the Eurozone Prelim HICP and Q1 GDP affect EUR/USD?
The EUR/USD pair may remain flat if the HICP data come as expected. However, the pair may depreciate further as the Euro (EUR) could struggle amid increased risk aversion, which could be attributed to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Traders expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to leave interest rates unchanged late in the day, in line with many global peers this week, while signaling that a rate hike, possibly as early as June, may be necessary to counter an energy-driven surge in consumer prices.
The EUR/USD pair could lose ground as the US Dollar (USD) remains firm, which could be attributed to the Federal Reserve (Fed) keeping rates unchanged but striking a more hawkish tone amid rising inflation concerns.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 8-4 on Wednesday to keep interest rates unchanged within the 3.5%–3.75% range, marking the first instance of four dissenting votes since October 1992. The committee emphasized that “inflation remains elevated, partly due to the recent rise in global energy prices.”
Technically, the EUR/USD pair steadies after recovering daily losses, trading around 1.1680 at the time of writing. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 49 hints at fading bullish momentum and a consolidative bias. The pair is hovering around the 50-day EMA of 1.1678, followed by the nine-day EMA barrier at 1.1700. On the downside, the EUR/USD pair may navigate the region around the eight-month low of 1.1411, recorded on March 13.
EUR/GBP softens to around 0.8660 in Thursday’s early European session.
German Retail Sales fell by 2.0% MoM in March, weaker than expected.
The ECB and BoE interest rate decisions will take center stage later on Thursday.
The EUR/GBP cross declines to near 0.8660 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The Euro (EUR) weakens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) following the downbeat German Retail Sales data. The preliminary readings of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from Germany and the Eurozone are due later on Thursday. Also, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decisions will be in the spotlight.
Data released by Destatis on Thursday showed that German Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, fell 2.0% MoM in March. This figure followed a decline of 0.3% in February (revised from -0.6%) and came in weaker than the expectations of a 0.1% decrease.
On an annualized basis, Retail Sales dropped 2.0% in March, versus an estimated rise of 0.5% and the prior release of 0.9% growth (revised from 0.7%). The EUR attracts some sellers in an immediate reaction to the weaker German economic data.
The ECB is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting on Thursday due to high uncertainty. Nonetheless, rising inflation, driven by energy price volatility from the Iran war, has raised the expectation of a rate hike in June. Economists predict a quarter-point hike at June’s meeting, and markets now fully price two additional ones after that before the year is out, according to Bloomberg.
The BoE is likely to keep interest rates on hold at its April policy meeting on Thursday as it awaits the economic fallout from the Iran war. Traders will closely monitor the speech from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey for any suggestions that higher borrowing costs are likely to be needed.
“The hikes fully priced into financial markets were already weighing on the economy, reducing the likelihood that the BoE will actually have to raise Bank Rate, at least for now,” said Andrew Wishart, senior UK economist at Berenberg.
EUR/USD drifts to three-week lows near 1.1650 as the Fed turns hawkish.
The Federal Reserve left rates on hold, with some policymakers opposing the “easing bias”.
Eurozone inflation and the ECB’s monetary policy decision will guide the pair on Thursday.
The Euro (EUR) extends losses for the third consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, trading at 1.1663 at the time of writing, down from weekly highs at 1.1755. A hawkish shift in the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy stance and the deadlock in the Middle East conflict are buoying the safe-haven USD, ahead of the Eurozone inflation data and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision, both due later today.
On Wednesday, the Fed left rates on hold at the 3.50%-3.75% band, as expected, yet with the most divided committee since 1992, as three policymakers argued that the “easing bias” phrase is no longer appropriate given the spike in energy prices.
Higher Treasury yields give a fresh push to the USD
The market has priced out the chance of a Fed rate cut this year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, and now prices in a nearly 50% chance of a rate hike in June next year. This has given US Treasury yields a fresh boost, providing additional support for the US Dollar.
Beyond that, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who ends his term on May 15, affirmed that he will remain at the bank as Governor, due to the legal actions taken against him by US President Donald Trump. Powell will replace Stephen Miran, who was appointed by Trump in 2025 and voted for a rate cut on Wednesday, and is likely to counter pressure from the administration on the next Chair, Kevin Warsh, to ease monetary policy.
In Europe, traders will be attentive to the Eurozone preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter and the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for April, which is expected to show a sharp acceleration, boosted by higher Oil prices.
The main focus on Thursday, however, will be on the ECB’s monetary policy decision. The bank will most likely leave interest rates on hold, awaiting more clarity on the Middle East conflict, while leaving the door open for a rate hike in June or July.
Technical Analysis: Bears are testing a key support zone
EUR/USD is showing mounting bearish pressure after breaking the neckline of a bearish “Head & Shoulders” (H&S) pattern at 1.1675, and is now testing a cluster of supports above 1.1645, which held bears several times in mid-April.
Technical indicators on the 4-hour chart are going deeper into bearish territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 34 hints at lingering downside pressure, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is showing widening red bars.
A clear break of the April 8 intraday low, in the area of 1.1645, would confirm the H&S formation. The pair might find some support at the 1.1630 area, where the 50% Fibonacci support of the March-April rally meets late March and early April highs. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is at 1.1583. The H&S’s measured target is coincident with the April 6 low near 1.1500.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the previous support zone near 1.1675, followed by Wednesday’s high at 1.1720 and the mentioned weekly high at 1.1755.
EUR/JPY weakens as the Euro struggles amid rising risk aversion driven by Middle East tensions.
The European Central Bank is broadly expected to keep interest rates steady on Thursday.
The currency cross may rebound as the Yen weakens amid growing short positions.
EUR/JPY edges lower after four days of gains, trading around 187.20 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross depreciates as the risk-sensitive Euro (EUR) struggles amid increased risk aversion, which could be attributed to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
US President Donald Trump said the naval blockade on Iran will continue until a nuclear deal is secured, dismissing calls to reopen key routes and favoring economic pressure over military action. Iran warned of retaliation, accusing Washington of using coercion and destabilization tactics to force compliance.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday, in line with many global peers this week, while signaling that a rate hike, possibly as early as June, may be necessary to counter an energy-driven surge in consumer prices.
Any delay in tightening is likely to be brief, with investors anticipating a move in June followed by two additional hikes later this year, as fading prospects for peace in Iran keep oil prices elevated and nearing levels outlined in the ECB’s “adverse” scenario, according to Reuters.
Meanwhile, downside pressure on EUR/JPY may be limited as the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under strain, with traders increasingly building short positions on expectations that neither further rate hikes nor official intervention will offer meaningful near-term support.
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed the central bank’s gradual tightening stance, though the yen continued to weaken. Verbal interventions from policymakers have also had limited impact, with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stating that authorities remain ready to step into foreign exchange markets at any time to stabilize the currency.
EUR/USD may hover near its eight-month low around 1.1411.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 48 signals weakening bullish momentum and a consolidative trend.
Immediate resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA near 1.1678.
EUR/USD extends its losses for the third successive day, trading around 1.1660 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The daily chart technical analysis indicates a potential for a bearish reversal, as the pair has slipped below the ascending channel.
The EUR/USD pair holds just under the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the nine-day EMA, which together suggest a capped near-term tone despite the recent recovery from lower levels.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 48 hints at fading bullish momentum and a consolidative bias, reinforcing the view that upside attempts may struggle while price remains below these key dynamic barriers.
On the downside, the EUR/USD pair may navigate the region around the eight-month low of 1.1411, recorded on March 13.
The immediate resistance lies at the 50-day EMA of 1.1678, followed by the nine-day EMA at 1.1700. A return to the ascending channel would revive the bullish bias and lead the EUR/USD pair to test the two-month high of 1.1849, reached on April 17, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.1940. A sustained break above the channel would lead the pair to explore the region around 1.2082, the highest since June 2021, reached on January 27.
EUR/USD: Daily Chart
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.09%
0.01%
-0.03%
-0.05%
-0.14%
-0.07%
-0.00%
EUR
-0.09%
-0.05%
-0.13%
-0.14%
-0.21%
-0.14%
-0.07%
GBP
-0.01%
0.05%
-0.04%
-0.07%
-0.15%
-0.05%
-0.02%
JPY
0.03%
0.13%
0.04%
-0.03%
-0.10%
-0.09%
-0.00%
CAD
0.05%
0.14%
0.07%
0.03%
-0.10%
-0.04%
0.05%
AUD
0.14%
0.21%
0.15%
0.10%
0.10%
0.07%
0.15%
NZD
0.07%
0.14%
0.05%
0.09%
0.04%
-0.07%
0.07%
CHF
0.00%
0.07%
0.02%
0.00%
-0.05%
-0.15%
-0.07%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Strong Durable Goods Orders reinforced confidence in the US economy.
Higher yields and firm oil prices supported the Greenback’s rebound.
Traders now await Fed and ECB decisions for fresh direction.
EUR/USD drops by some 0.17% during the North American session as a possible resolution of the US-Iran conflict seems far from ending, while Durable Goods Orders data in the US suggest that the economy remains solid. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1684 after reaching a daily high of 1.1720.
Euro weakens as yields jump before Fed and ECB rate decisions now
High energy prices are underpinning the US Dollar, which, of late, has been correlated with WTI, posting back-to-back bullish days and rising 0.27% in the day, according to the US Dollar Index. The DXY, which measures the performance of the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, is at 98.66.
US Treasury yields are soaring, with the 10-year Treasury note up 5 basis points to 4.398%, a sign that investors are less confident the Federal Reserve will reduce borrowing costs in the near term.
The US President Donald Trump urged Iran to sign a deal as he prepared the US Navy for an extended blockade of Iranian ports, as negotiations have stalled.
Aside from this, US Core Durable Goods Orders in March rose sharply 3.3% from February’s 1.6% print, crushing estimates for a minimal 0.6% increase, a sign that business spending is picking up, driven by companies spending on AI to improve profit margins. Headline goods orders improved from a -1.2% YoY contraction, to 0.8% exceeding forecasts of 0.5%.
Across the pond, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in Germany rose from 2.8% to 2.9% YoY, missing estimates of 3%. Monthly, the German HICP decreased form 1.2% to 0.5%, below forecasts for a 0.8% jump.
Fed and ECB meetings up next
Now, traders’ eyes would be on monetary policy meetings in both sides of the Atlantic. The Federal Reserve is projected to keep interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range, but the attention would be on Powell’s decision to stay at the Fed until his term as Governor ends, or whether he would leave his place open, which would increase Trump’s allies on the committee.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank is projected to keep rates unchanged, but for the rest of the year, money markets see three basis points of rate hikes towards the end of the year, as revealed by Prime Terminal’s implied forward rates curve.
Source: Prime Terminal
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1690, holding just above the triple simple moving average (SMA) clustered around 1.1649, which now acts as immediate support. The pair, however, remains capped by the broader trend structure, with former rising support now sitting above spot near recent highs around 1.1760 and converging with the dominant downward resistance line closer to 1.1800, suggesting rallies are still vulnerable while price trades beneath this confluence. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 50.4 hovers around neutral, hinting at a loss of directional conviction after the recent recovery from mid-1.15s.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen near the former rising-support line around 1.1760, ahead of the broader downward resistance trend zone near 1.1800, where sellers are likely to re-emerge unless the pair can sustain a clear break higher. On the downside, the triple SMA support at roughly 1.1650 is the first level to watch; a daily close below this floor would expose a deeper pullback toward the mid-1.15 area, while holding above it would keep the pair in a consolidative stance within the broader corrective structure.
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.05%
0.16%
0.38%
0.03%
-0.08%
0.43%
0.45%
EUR
-0.05%
0.13%
0.26%
0.00%
-0.11%
0.41%
0.42%
GBP
-0.16%
-0.13%
0.17%
-0.12%
-0.24%
0.28%
0.29%
JPY
-0.38%
-0.26%
-0.17%
-0.30%
-0.44%
0.16%
0.18%
CAD
-0.03%
-0.00%
0.12%
0.30%
-0.07%
0.46%
0.42%
AUD
0.08%
0.11%
0.24%
0.44%
0.07%
0.52%
0.53%
NZD
-0.43%
-0.41%
-0.28%
-0.16%
-0.46%
-0.52%
0.02%
CHF
-0.45%
-0.42%
-0.29%
-0.18%
-0.42%
-0.53%
-0.02%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
EURCHF is trading above the 100-period exponential moving average from D1 interval
Recommendation: Trade: Long EURCHF at market price Target: 0.9330, 0.9390 Stop: 0.9155
Opinion: Looking at EURCHF on the H4 interval, one can see a potential trend reversal. The pair managed to break above the 1:1 structure – according to the Overbalance strategy, such a situation heralds a bigger upward move. It seems that as long as the price sits above the 0.9204 support, continuation of the upward move is the base case scenario. In addition the pair sits above the 100-period moving average from the D1 interval. We recommend going long EURCHF at market price with two targets: 0.9330 and 0.9390. We also recommend placing a stop loss order at 0.9155. Source: xStation
EUR/JPY falls as the Euro weakens amid rising risk aversion over uncertainty surrounding a potential Middle East ceasefire.
US officials say President Donald Trump has directed aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iran.
JPY remains firm amid BoJ rate-hike expectations and speculation about intervention to limit further currency weakness.
EUR/JPY edges lower after three days of gains, trading around 186.80 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross declines as the Euro (EUR) struggles amid heightened risk aversion driven by uncertainty over a potential ceasefire in the Middle East.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that US officials said President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iran. The report noted that Trump chose to keep pressuring Iran’s economy and oil exports by restricting shipping to and from its ports. Sources added that he viewed alternative options, such as resuming bombing or disengaging from the conflict, as riskier than maintaining the blockade.
Traders turn their attention to the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision on Thursday, where markets expect a “hawkish hold” as policymakers weigh potential rate hikes in June or July. Analysts at Goldman Sachs anticipate two 25 basis point hikes in the coming months, starting in June and followed by another in September, which would lift the deposit rate back to 2.50%.
The EUR/JPY cross remains under pressure as the Japanese Yen (JPY) stays firm amid expectations of a near-term rate hike from the Bank of Japan, alongside speculation that authorities may intervene to curb further yen weakness.
However, the JPY has struggled to attract sustained buying interest despite the BoJ’s hawkish pause on Tuesday. Notably, three of the nine policy board members backed a rate hike, highlighting growing concern over inflation pressures linked to the Iran conflict.
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to gradual policy tightening, signaling that interest rates could continue to rise as economic, price, and financial conditions evolve. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated that authorities stand ready to intervene in currency markets at any time to support the Yen.
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