BNP Paribas strategists argue that Europe is emerging as an alternative safe haven, with the Euro gaining ground as a global safe asset. They note that the European Central Bank’s (ECB) work highlights stronger demand for Euro assets and a higher convenience yield on German bunds, which supports broader Eurozone financing conditions. They stress Europe’s industrial resilience, services strength, tech momentum and improving policy and geopolitical backdrop.
Euro benefits from haven re-rating
“All this turmoil has already made Europe look more attractive, as a haven of stability.”
“Last week, the ECB’s annual report on The International Role of the Euro revealed that the euro is catching up as the world’s safe asset of choice.”
“On multiple occasions, during recent episodes of market turmoil, the euro behaved more like a safe asset than the US dollar.”
“Financial markets have noticed: the so-called convenience yield[2] on German bunds rose threefold from 30 bps to 90 over 2023-25.”
“To the extent that all other bonds (sovereign and private) in euros are priced off German bunds, this benefits the entire Eurozone economy.”
EUR/JPY holds gains as a stronger Euro is supported by robust Germany’s Industrial Production.
Germany’s seasonally adjusted industrial output rebounded by 0.4% in April, meeting market expectations and recovering from March’s 0.1% decline.
The Japanese Yen steadies as lower oil prices temper energy inflation fears, easing market pressure for aggressive rate hikes.
EUR/JPY extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 184.90 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross holds gains as the Euro (EUR) remains stronger following the release of Industrial Production and Trade Balance data.
Industrial Output, in the Eurozone’s economic powerhouse Germany, rose by 0.4% over the month in April, the federal statistics authority Destatis said in figures adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, compared with the expected 0.4% rise and a decline of 0.1% recorded in March (revised from -0.7%). Annually, the German Industrial Production came in at -0.5% in the same period, following March’s revised 3.4% fall.
Germany’s trade surplus narrowed to €14.5 billion in April 2026 from an upwardly revised €14.7 billion in March, falling short of market expectations of €15.0 billion. It was the smallest trade surplus since November, as imports grew faster than exports. Exports unexpectedly increased by 0.9% month-on-month to a near 3½-year high of €136.6 billion, accelerating from a downwardly revised 0.3% gain in March and easily beating expectations of a 0.3% decline. Meanwhile, imports climbed 1.2% month-on-month to €122.1 billion, the highest level since November 2022, though easing from a downwardly revised 4.5% increase in March.
The upside for the EUR/JPY cross remains limited as a stabilizing Japanese Yen (JPY) acts as a structural headwind. Recent pullbacks in global oil prices have helped temper fears of a severe energy-driven inflation spike, consequently easing immediate market pressure for hyper-aggressive rate hikes.
However, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is still widely anticipated to tighten monetary policy later this month. Policymakers continue to grapple with underlying inflationary pressures stemming from historically elevated energy costs. In tandem with potential rate hikes, reports indicate that the BoJ will review its bond-tapering framework, with a high likelihood of scaling back its monthly asset purchases. Market participants are now turning their focus to Wednesday’s 30-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) auction, which will serve as a key barometer to gauge investor demand within this shifting, higher-yield environment.
EUR/JPY gathers strength near 184.85 in Tuesday’s early European session.
The cross keeps the bullish vibe, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out in near term with neutral RSI momentum.
The initial support level is seen at 184.50; the immediate resistance level to watch is 185.12.
The EUR/JPY cross holds positive ground around 184.85 during the early European session on Tuesday. A hawkish stance from the European Central Bank (ECB) underpins the Euro (EUR) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). The ECB will hold its June monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike after Eurozone inflation surged to 3.2%.
Markets are on high alert for foreign exchange intervention from Japanese authorities. This, in turn, might support the JPY and act as a headwind for the cross. Japanese authorities have issued strong verbal warnings, stating that the government is fully prepared to take decisive and appropriate action to protect the domestic currency.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, EUR/JPY holds a constructive bullish bias as spot remains above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger band midline. Price also sits comfortably above the lower Bollinger band, suggesting the broader uptrend structure is still intact, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45.9 leans slightly soft but remains in neutral territory, hinting at consolidative rather than impulsive downside momentum.
On the downside, the initial support zone is formed by the 100-day SMA at 184.50, followed by the lower Bollinger band near 184.20, which should limit deeper pullbacks if the bullish structure is to persist. The first upside barrier emerges at the the Bollinger band midline at 185.12, en route to the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band at 185.12. Any follow-through buying above this level could pave the way to the 186.00 psychological level.
EUR/USD gains ground to around 1.1545 in Tuesday’s early European session.
The ECB is widely expected to raise its key interest rates at its June policy meeting on Thursday.
Trump said he might have a proposal for the Iran agreement within days.
The EUR/USD pair gathers strength near 1.1545 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday, bolstered by the hawkish stance of the European Central Bank (ECB). Traders brace for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday. On Thursday, all eyes will be on the ECB interest rate decision.
The ECB is set to raise its key interest rate for the first time in almost three years at the upcoming June policy meeting on Thursday, becoming the first of its peers to tighten policy in response to a jump in energy prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East.
“At its 11 June meeting, the ECB is very likely to raise its key interest rates by 25 basis points, in line with its recent hawkish communication,” said Martin Wolburg, senior economist at Generali Investments.
ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold the press conference to deliver the monetary policy statement and take questions from journalists. Any hawkish comments from ECB policymakers could provide some support to the Euro (EUR) against the Greenback in the near term.
US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he might have a proposal for the Iran agreement within days, per Reuters. However, the uncertainty surrounding the Middle East remains high. Earlier Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the war against Iran and its Lebanon-based proxy Hezbollah “has not yet ended,” though he insisted both are weaker than ever. Signs of rising tensions in the Middle East could boost the US Dollar (USD) as a safe-haven currency and act as a headwind for the major pair.
On Thursday (June 11), the ECB will announce its interest rate decision. Markets have almost fully priced in a rate hike.
Nearly two additional rate hikes are priced in for the remaining months of the year (the second one at approx. 73%).
On Wednesday (June 10), May CPI inflation data for the United States will be released.
The EURUSD pair is oscillating around 1.15500, between two key support levels determined by the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracements.
The price is trading significantly below its three major moving averages: EMA 50 (1.16568), EMA 100 (1.16608), and EMA 150 (1.16464).
The RSI (14) indicator stands at 39.1.
Recommendation
Position: Short (SELL) on EURUSD at market price (1.15502).
Take Profit (TP): 1.14700 (TP1), 1.14200 (TP2)
Stop Loss (SL): 1.16300
Figure 1: EURUSD (10.12.2025 – 25.06.2026)
Source: xStation5, 08.06.2026 (15:34)
Opinion
The EURUSD pair has weakened significantly from its mid-April peak, when it approached the 1.18500 level. The key drivers behind this downward move are the prolonged negotiations between the US and Iran, alongside a substantial increase in market expectations for US interest rate hikes. Markets have now fully priced in a rate increase before the end of the year, following Friday’s release of very strong NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) data from the US labor market. Figure 2: Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Unemployment Rate in the US (2023 – 2026)
Source: XTB Research, 08.06.2026
Geopolitics and monetary policy should remain the primary focus for investors this week as well. Any headlines suggesting that a breakthrough in reopening the Strait of Hormuz is slipping away could weigh on the EURUSD pair, a dynamic already observed during this morning’s trading session. Paradoxically, the Euro’s decline could also be fueled by Thursday’s anticipated interest rate hike from the ECB. Since this move is already nearly 100% priced in by the markets, investor attention will shift away from the decision itself and onto the accompanying rhetoric. Frankly speaking, if the ECB were to hold rates for any reason, it would trigger a massive sell-off in the Euro. However, the single currency could also be weakened by President Christine Lagarde herself, who will take the podium on Thursday afternoon to address and potentially challenge market assumptions regarding the central bank’s upcoming steps.
Lagarde has rarely accustomed us to being overly transparent or hawkish in her communications. Consequently, any signs of her emphasizing economic stagnation risks could be interpreted by markets as dovish – especially if inflation concerns are given a slightly lower priority than they were a month ago. Speaking of inflation, Wednesday’s US CPI print for May is a crucial milestone. Further growth in price pressures is expected. The core gauge, which excludes highly volatile food and energy prices, will be critical, as it will reveal the extent to which the energy shock has filtered into other sectors of the economy. From a technical analysis perspective: The pair has broken below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (1.15777) as well as the EMA 50, 100, and 150 moving averages, justifying further declines. The MACD histogram is systematically deepening its lows in negative territory, and the RSI (14) still has ample room to slide before hitting oversold territory.
Methodology
The recommendation was prepared based on a fundamental analysis of the respective economies (including monetary policy in both the Eurozone and the US), as well as a technical analysis of the EURUSD chart. The direction of the recommendation was determined by assessing the monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB, confirmed by the medium-term downward trend on the chart. Take Profit and Stop Loss levels were determined using Fibonacci retracements and key horizontal support/resistance levels (TP1 between Fibo 78.6% and Fibo 100.0%, TP2 directly at the Fibo 100.0% level, and the SL at the Fibo 50.0% level).
UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that EUR/USD plunged to a three‑month low around 1.1520 after breaking several key supports. In the near term, they see scope for a further drop toward 1.1490, while over the next 1–3 weeks, the pair is expected to continue weakening toward 1.1445, with resistance now capped around 1.1575/1.1600.
Momentum points to further Euro losses
“24-HOUR VIEW: Our view of range-trading last Friday was incorrect, as EUR nose-dived during the early NY session, breaking a couple of firm support levels on the way. EUR closed at 1.1519, down sharply by 0.78%. While the sharp and rapid decline appears excessive, there are no signs of stabilisation yet. Today, as long as 1.1575 (minor resistance is at 1.1535), EUR could drop toward 1.1490. That said, any further decline is unlikely to reach 1.1445 for now. “
“1-3 WEEKS VIEW: After holding the view that “EUR is neutral, and it is likely to trade between 1.1590 and 1.1685” for more than a week, we indicated last Thursday (04 Jun, spot at 1.1605) that “downward momentum is increasing, and if EUR breaks and holds below 1.1590, it would increase the risk of a decline toward the significant support at 1.1555.” We added, “the likelihood of EUR breaking clearly below 1.1590 will remain intact as long as 1.1655 (‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached.” Last Friday, EUR not only broke below 1.1590, but also breached 1.1555, plunging to a low of 1.1516. Given the sharp boost in downward momentum, EUR is likely to continue to weaken toward 1.1445. On the upside, the ‘strong resistance’ level is now at 1.1600 instead of 1.1655. In the near-term, 1.1575 is already a firm resistance level.”
EUR/USD may retest the lower boundary of the descending channel around 1.1510.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 35 suggests persisting downside pressure.
The initial resistance appears at the nine-day EMA of 1.1591.
EUR/USD rebounds after registering 0.75% losses in the previous day, trading around 1.1530 during the Asian hours on Monday. The daily chart technical analysis indicates an ongoing bearish bias as the pair is positioned near the lower boundary of the descending channel pattern.
The EUR/USD pair is preserving a bearish near-term bias as spot holds under both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35 is edging closer to oversold territory, hinting that while downside pressure persists, the pace of the recent decline could slow as sellers approach stretched conditions.
The EUR/USD pair may retest the lower boundary of the descending channel around 1.1510. A break below the channel would strengthen the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the pair to test the 10-month low of 1.1411, recorded on March 13.
On the upside, the primary barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.1591, followed by the 50-day EMA of 1.1654. Next resistance lies at the upper boundary of the descending channel around 1.1710; a break above it would expose a nearly four-month high of 1.1849, reached on April 17.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.14%
-0.05%
-0.02%
-0.01%
-0.07%
-0.22%
0.02%
EUR
0.14%
0.08%
0.13%
0.12%
0.06%
-0.07%
0.14%
GBP
0.05%
-0.08%
0.04%
0.03%
-0.07%
-0.16%
0.04%
JPY
0.02%
-0.13%
-0.04%
-0.03%
-0.10%
-0.20%
-0.01%
CAD
0.01%
-0.12%
-0.03%
0.03%
-0.07%
-0.19%
-0.02%
AUD
0.07%
-0.06%
0.07%
0.10%
0.07%
-0.11%
0.09%
NZD
0.22%
0.07%
0.16%
0.20%
0.19%
0.11%
0.18%
CHF
-0.02%
-0.14%
-0.04%
0.01%
0.02%
-0.09%
-0.18%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
EUR/JPY trades with mild gains near 185.65 in Thursday’s early European session.
The cross keep a modest bullish bias above the key 100-day SMA.
The first upside barrier emerges at 186.00; the initial support level is seen at 185.15.
The EUR/JPY cross posts modest gains around 185.65 during the early European session on Thursday. The potential upside might be limited for the cross amid fears of foreign exchange intervention from Japanese authorities.
Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Wednesday that officials are standing ready to respond appropriately on foreign exchange if required. Katayama added that she aligns with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) governor on several matters.
On the other hand, the hawkish stance of the European Central Bank might help limit the EUR’s losses. The ECB is likely to raise its deposit rate to 2.25% at its upcoming June policy meeting, with another increase likely in September, a Reuters poll of economists showed.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, EUR/JPY trades at 185.64, holding a modest bullish bias as it consolidates above the Bollinger middle band around 185.15 and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) near 184.48. The pair is trading closer to the upper half of its recent Bollinger envelope, with the upper band near 186.02 acting as immediate overhead resistance, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 55 suggests steady but not overstretched upside momentum.
On the topside, a daily close above the Bollinger upper band at 186.02 would open the way for a continuation of the advance toward higher highs in the coming sessions. On the downside, initial support is seen at the Bollinger middle band near 185.15, followed by the 100-day SMA at 184.48 and the lower Bollinger band around 184.28, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge if the current pullback deepens.
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