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GBP/USD Price – Struggles to build on move beyond 1.3200 amid bearish setup

  • GBP/USD attracts some buyers for the second straight day amid a mildly softer US Dollar.
  • The UK political crisis holds back GBP bulls from placing fresh bets and caps spot prices.
  • The bearish technical setup suggests that a further move up is more likely to be sold into.

The GBP/USD pair sticks to its positive bias for the second straight day, though it lacks bullish conviction and trades just above the 1.3200 mark during the early European session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) remains depressed below its highest level since May 2025, touched on Thursday, and acts as a tailwind for spot prices.

However, the UK political crisis holds back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the British Pound (GBP) and caps the upside for the GBP/USD pair. Furthermore, a bearish technical setup warrants caution before positioning for any meaningful recovery from the 1.3140 area, or the lowest since November, set on Wednesday.

Against the backdrop of the recent repeated failures near the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, this week’s break below the 1.3300 mark was seen as a key trigger for the GBP/USD bears. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 47, suggesting consolidative conditions rather than clear trend strength.

However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows the MACD line modestly above the signal line and hovering around zero. This hints at tentative bullish momentum that is not yet strong enough to challenge the GBP/USD pair’s dominant downtrend witnessed over the past two months or so.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 200-period SMA at 1.3384, and spot prices would need a sustained break above this level to ease the broader bearish bias and open the way for a more constructive recovery phase. On the downside, intraday setbacks are likely to be driven more by price action than by clearly defined structural supports.

Meanwhile, traders will be watching the recent lows around the mid-1.3100s as a provisional near-term floor for the GBP/USD pair until fresh technical levels emerge.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

GBP/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis GBP/USD

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.14%-0.07%-0.10%-0.04%0.29%0.04%-0.22%
EUR0.14%0.07%0.06%0.13%0.44%0.16%-0.07%
GBP0.07%-0.07%0.00%0.06%0.38%0.12%-0.13%
JPY0.10%-0.06%0.00%0.06%0.39%0.11%-0.12%
CAD0.04%-0.13%-0.06%-0.06%0.33%0.05%-0.20%
AUD-0.29%-0.44%-0.38%-0.39%-0.33%-0.26%-0.52%
NZD-0.04%-0.16%-0.12%-0.11%-0.05%0.26%-0.24%
CHF0.22%0.07%0.13%0.12%0.20%0.52%0.24%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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Swiss Franc declines as Fed hike bets lift US Dollar

  • USD/CHF gains ground amid rising expectations of a Fed rate hike.
  • The CME FedWatch tool shows that markets are pricing in a 63.4% probability of an interest rate increase in September.
  • Swiss investor sentiment plunged to -25.0 in June from -11.1 in May, remaining deeply in negative territory.

USD/CHF gains ground after registering nearly 0.30%, trading around 0.8100 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair rises as the US Dollar (USD) finds support from growing expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets have priced in a 63.4% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates during its September 15–16 meeting.

This hawkish sentiment is fueled by accelerating inflation data, with the headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index climbing to 4.1% year-over-year in May, up from 3.3% in April. This surge, the first time the headline figure has breached 4.0% in three years, is largely attributed to rising energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict, keeping the prospect of further rate increases this year firmly on the table.

Furthermore, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE index, rose to 3.4% year-over-year, up from 3.3%. This represents the highest annual core reading since October 2023.

Swiss investor sentiment worsened significantly in June 2026, dropping to -25.0 from -11.1 in May and remaining deeply negative. According to the latest UBS & CFA Society Switzerland survey, the economic expectations index experienced a sharp month-on-month decline of 13.9 points.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) elected to keep its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 0% for the fourth consecutive meeting, reiterating that its current monetary stance supports both economic growth and price stability. However, the central bank also raised its inflation forecasts and reminded markets that it remains fully prepared to step into the foreign exchange markets if currency pressures demand it.

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EUR/USD Price – Holds above mid-1.1300s amid Hormuz risks, bearish setup

  • EUR/USD struggles to lure buyers on Friday as Hormuz risks support the safe-haven USD.
  • Receding Fed rate hike bets keep a lid on the USD appreciation and limit losses for the pair.
  • The bearish technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance is to the downside.

The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s modest recovery gains and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices, however, hold above mid-1.1300s and the lowest level since May 2025, set on Thursday, warranting some caution for bearish traders.

Reports that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz reignite worries about the sustainability of an interim US-Iran peace deal and support the safe-haven US Dollar (USD). This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair.

Meanwhile, traders trimmed their bets for interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year amid expectations that inflation likely peaked last month or is ‌close to doing so in the face of the recent fall in Crude Oil prices. This caps the upside for the USD and helps limit any further downside for the EUR/USD pair.

The recent repeated failures to find acceptance above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the EUR/USD pair’s inability to gain any meaningful traction favor bears. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 42 hints at a gradual recovery from oversold conditions rather than a bullish shift.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has now turned modestly positive, though the EUR/USD pair remains structurally pressured in the near-term. This, in turn, suggests that any meaningful recovery attempt might still be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly.

Immediate resistance is located at the 1.1440 region, and a break above could lift the EUR/USD pair back to the 100-period SMA at 1.1514. A move beyond this hurdle is needed to ease the current bearish tone and open the way for a more meaningful correction higher. Until then, the pair seems vulnerable to test fresh lows.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis EUR/USD

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.02%-0.05%-0.10%-0.06%0.25%0.14%-0.08%
EUR0.02%-0.05%-0.06%-0.02%0.27%0.12%-0.06%
GBP0.05%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.32%0.19%-0.02%
JPY0.10%0.06%0.00%0.02%0.33%0.19%-0.01%
CAD0.06%0.02%0.00%-0.02%0.31%0.16%-0.05%
AUD-0.25%-0.27%-0.32%-0.33%-0.31%-0.13%-0.35%
NZD-0.14%-0.12%-0.19%-0.19%-0.16%0.13%-0.20%
CHF0.08%0.06%0.02%0.00%0.05%0.35%0.20%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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Australian Dollar drops to fresh lows since April vs USD amid global risk-off impulse

  • AUD/USD meets with a fresh supply on Friday, though the RBA’s hawkish tilt limits losses.
  • Hormuz risks and Fed rate hike bets revive USD demand, exerting pressure on spot prices.
  • Traders now look to the US Consumer Sentiment Index and Fedspeak for a fresh impetus.

The AUD/USD pair attracts fresh sellers following the previous day’s modest gains and drops to a fresh low since early April during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices, however, recover a few pips in the last hour and currently trade just below the 0.6900 mark, still down over 0.25% for the day.

According to the third and final reading published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on Thursday, the economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.1% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the second estimate of 1.6% rise. Adding to this, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index highlighted persistent inflationary pressures, keeping an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year firmly on the table. Apart from this, the cautious market mood helps the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) stall its corrective pullback from the highest level since May 2025, touched on Thursday, and exerts downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair.

Reports suggested that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. The latest development reignites worries about the sustainability of the preliminary US-Iran peace deal. Apart from this, the recent tech-driven selloff in the equity markets has triggered global risk aversion, which is seen as another factor behind the Greenback’s relative outperformance against the perceived riskier Australian Dollar (AUD). That said, expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will stick to its hawkish stance hold back bearish traders from placing aggressive bets around the AUD/USD pair.

Traders now look forward to the release of the revived University of Michigan US Consumer Sentiment Index, which, along with Fedspeak, might influence the USD price dynamics. The focus will then shift to RBA Governor  Michele Bullock’s speech on Sunday, which should provide a fresh impetus to the AUD/USD pair at the start of a new week. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to register heavy weekly losses, also marking the second straight week of a negative move.

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Dollar Set for Weekly Gain

The dollar index steadied around 101.5 on Friday after coming under pressure in the previous session, but remained on track for a weekly gain as markets continued to expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later this year. On Thursday, the greenback weakened after the latest US PCE inflation report came in broadly in line with expectations. Although inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target, the data helped ease concerns about a sharper-than-anticipated pickup in price pressures. Even so, markets are pricing in an 80% chance of a Fed rate hike in December following last week’s hawkish pause, while the probability of a September increase stands at around 63%. New York Fed President John Williams also said on Thursday that inflationary pressures are likely to moderate this year but remain uncomfortably high.

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Yen Stays Near 40-Year Low

The Japanese yen traded around 161.7 per dollar on Friday, hovering near its weakest level since 1986 despite data showing Tokyo’s core inflation accelerated for the first time in eight months, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue raising interest rates. On Wednesday, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed his commitment to further rate hikes in line with economic, inflation, and financial developments. A day later, hawkish board member Naoki Tamura also advocated raising rates every few months. The BOJ is due to announce its next policy decision on July 31. The yen remained under pressure despite repeated verbal warnings from Japan’s Finance Ministry and record currency intervention in recent weeks, as a stronger dollar and the wide interest rate differential with the US continued to weigh on the currency while the Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates later this year.

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Offshore Yuan Heads for 2nd Weekly Loss

The offshore yuan weakened to around 6.80 per dollar on Friday and was on track for a second consecutive weekly loss, remaining under pressure from a broadly strong US dollar. The greenback continued its momentum after the Federal Reserve recently adopted a more hawkish stance, leading markets to price in a 75% probability of a rate hike as early as September. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China unveiled plans to introduce overnight reverse repo operations on June 29–30 as part of the next phase of its monetary policy framework reform. This will complement the existing seven-day reverse repo rate, bringing the PBOC’s policy toolkit more closely in line with those of major central banks, including the Federal Reserve. On the economic front, fiscal expenditure rose 0.8% year-on-year to CNY 11.39 trillion ($1.59 trillion) in the first five months of 2026. Central government spending increased 6.5% to CNY 1.68 trillion, while local government expenditure fell 0.1% to CNY 9.71 trillion.