USD/CAD holds gains above 1.3900 with all eyes on US jobs data

April 3, 2026
  • USD/CAD holds firm above 1.3900 on track for its third consecutive weekly gain.
  • Investors await the US Nonfarm Payrolls report amid holiday-thinned market volumes.
  • Canada’s trade deficit rose to a six-month high in February.

The US Dollar (USD) keeps the upper hand against its Canadian counterpart on Friday, trading near 1.3925 at the moment of writing, with the 1.3966 year-to-date high at a relatively short distance. The pair is on track for its third consecutive weekly rally, with the Canadian Dollar (CAD) weighed by the risk-off sentiment stemming from the Iran war.

Trading volumes are expected to remain low, with most markets closed on Friday for the Good Friday bank holiday. During the US session, however, the US Nonfarm Payrolls report is likely to attract significant interest and might trigger wild FX movements due to the limited liquidity conditions

US Payrolls are seen bouncing up in March

The market consensus anticipates US net employment to have increased by 60K in March àttyially offsetting the 92K decline posted in February. The positive ADP employment reading seen earlier this week and the strong US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) have contributed to boosting investors’ expectations about March’s payroll figures.

Meanwhile, the war in the Middle East continues, keeping investors’ appetite for risk subdued. The UN Security Council is expected to vote on a proposal by Bahrain authorizing countries to use “all defensive means necessary” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, an initiative that has been rejected by veto-wielding Chinese representatives.

Data released on Thursday showed that Canada’s Merchandise Trade Balance deficit widened to a six-month high at CAD 5.74 billion i (USD 14.4 billion) in February, as imports increased 8.4% to an all-time high of CAD 72.05 billion, offsetting the 6.4% rise in exports.

Also on Thursday, the President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee, warned that the recent surge in Oil prices might complicate the central bank’s rate-setting activity in a context ot a “low-hire, low-fire” labour market. The impact on the US Dollar, however, was minimal.

Australian Dollar gains traction ahead of US jobs report

April 3, 2026
  • AUD/USD gathers strength around 0.6900 in Friday’s early European session. 
  • Westpac analysts expect the RBA to increase the cash rate by 25 basis points in May, June and August 2026. 
  • Traders brace for the US employment data for March later on Friday. 

The AUD/USD pair gains ground near 0.6900 during the early European trading hours on Friday. Hawkish tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) underpins the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the Greenback. Trading volumes are likely to be thin due to the Good Friday holiday. Traders will keep an eye on the US March jobs report later on Friday.

Market expectations for the May meeting lean toward another potential rate hike due to rising oil prices and a tight labor market. Westpac analysts expect the RBA to deliver three further rate hikes in 2026. This would take the cash rate to 4.85%, a level not seen since November 2008. 

On the other hand, escalating conflict in the Middle East, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, could prompt traders to move into a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD). US President Donald Trump pressures Iran “to make a deal” after a military strike destroys a bridge near Tehran. 

Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Washington’s recent strikes on civilian infrastructure will not force the country to back down, adding that such actions “convey the defeat and moral collapse of an enemy in disarray.”

The US employment data for March will be published on Friday. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are expected to show an increase of 60,000 jobs in March. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.4% during the same period. 

JPY flat lines amid persistent tensions in the Middle East

April 3, 2026
  • USD/JPY holds steady around 159.60 in Friday’s early Asian session. 
  • Persistent tensions in the Middle East underpin the US Dollar, but US tariff threats might cap its upside. 
  • BoJ authorities warned that they may adjust policy if Yen weakness persists. 

The USD/JPY pair trades on a flat note near 159.60 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. Trading volumes are likely to be thin due to the Good Friday holiday. All eyes will be on the US March Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which will be published later on Friday. 

Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drive up oil prices and lift the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). US President Donald Trump pressures Iran to make a deal after a military strike destroys a bridge near Tehran. Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, stated that Washington’s recent strikes on civilian infrastructure will not force the country to back down, adding that such actions “convey the defeat and moral collapse of an enemy in disarray.”

On the other hand, chaos around U.S. tariff policy might cap the upside for the Greenback. The Trump administration plans to slap up to 100% on certain imported medicines from companies that don’t reach deals with his administration in the coming months, per Bloomberg. A White House statement said that the new levy applies to patented drugs made in countries that lack tariff deals with the US by companies that don’t have most-favored-nation-pricing agreements with the administration.

Fears that Japanese authorities would step in to support the domestic currency could support the JPY and act as a headwind for the pair. Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, said on Monday that officials may need to take “decisive” steps if speculative moves persist in the currency market.

NZD/USD declines to near 0.5700 on weak Chinese PMI, US NFP data looms.

April 3, 2026
  • NZD/USD drifts lower to near 0.5710 in Friday’s Asian session. 
  • China’s RatingDog Services PMI eased to 52.1 in March, weaker than expected. 
  • The US March jobs data will be the highlight on Friday.

The NZD/USD pair extends the decline to a near four-month low around 0.5710 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) softens against the US Dollar (USD) on the downbeat Chinese economic data and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Trading volumes are likely to be thin due to the Good Friday holiday.

Data released by RatingDog on Friday showed that China’s Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined to 52.1 in March from 56.7 in February. This figure came in below the market consensus of 53.7. The China-proxy Kiwi edges lower following the weaker Chinese data. 

Additionally, escalating tensions between the US and Iran could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback and create a headwind for the pair. US President Donald Trump pressures Iran “to make a deal” after a military strike destroys a bridge near Tehran. Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Washington’s recent strikes on civilian infrastructure will not force the country to back down. 

Traders will closely monitor the US March jobs data later on Friday. The US economy is expected to see 60,000 job additions in March, while the Unemployment Rate is estimated to hold steady at 4.4% during the same period. Any signs of a weakening in the US labor market could drag the USD lower in the near term. 

GBP edges higher as traders price in two BoE rate hike odds

April 3, 2026
  • GBP/USD gains as markets price in the possibility of two BoE hikes in 2026 amid rising inflation fears.
  • The US Dollar may strengthen on safe-haven demand amid escalating Iran tensions following Trump’s recent threats.
  • Trump gave no clarity on reopening Hormuz, warning of intensified military action over the next two to three weeks.

GBP/USD inches higher after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 1.3230 during the Asian hours on Friday. Trading activity may remain subdued due to the Good Friday holiday.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) receives some support as markets are pricing in two Bank of England rate hikes in 2026 amid rising energy prices and inflation concerns. However, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey recently warned that expectations may be overstated.

However, the upside of the GBP/USD pair could be limited as the US Dollar (USD) could gain ground amid rising safe-haven demand following the recent Iran threats from US President Donald Trump.

US President Donald Trump offered no clarity on steps toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, warning of intensified military action over the next two to three weeks and issuing strong threats against Iran. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded that recent US strikes on civilian infrastructure would not force a retreat, describing them instead as evidence of an opponent in disarray and moral decline.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed concern over rising oil prices, noting they could complicate efforts to curb inflation, particularly if gasoline costs surge and lift inflation expectations.

U.S. Dollar Index holds gains near 100.00 as traders focus on US jobs data and Iran conflict

April 3, 2026
  • US Dollar Index holds gains around 100.00 in Friday’s early European session. 
  • Trump pressures Iran to make a deal after a military strike destroys a bridge near Tehran. 
  • The US March jobs data will be in the spotlight later on Friday. 

The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 100.00 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The DXY holds positive ground amid fresh concerns over a prolonged conflict in the Middle East. All eyes will be on the US March jobs report, which will be released later on Friday.

US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the war’s core objectives are “nearing completion” and could wrap up in two to three weeks. He warned he would bomb Iran “back to the Stone Age” if they did not agree to an unconditional surrender. 

Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the attack wouldn’t force Tehran to surrender. “It only conveys the defeat and moral collapse of an enemy in disarray,” he said. A prolonged conflict between the US and Iran could prompt traders to seek a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar in the near term. 

Nonetheless, US tariff threats might cap the upside for the DXY. Bloomberg reported on Thursday that Trump signed an executive order that could slap up to 100% on certain imported medicines from companies that don’t reach deals with his administration in the coming months. 

Traders await the release of the US March jobs data later on Friday for fresh impetus. The US economy is projected to see 60,000 job additions in March, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to hold steady at 4.4% during the same period. In case of softer-than-expected outcomes, this could weigh on the USD against its rivals. 

EUR/USD – Remains below nine-day EMA near 1.1550

April 3, 2026
  • EUR/USD may fall toward the initial support at the eight-month low of 1.1411.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 45 signals subdued momentum.
  • The pair tests the immediate barrier at the upper descending channel boundary near the nine-day EMA at 1.1544.

EUR/USD remains subdued for the second successive day, trading around 1.1540 during Asian hours on Friday. The daily chart technical analysis indicates a potential bullish reversal as the pair is testing the upper boundary of the descending channel pattern.

However, the near-term bias stays mildly bearish as price holds below both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which cap recovery attempts and confirm a prevailing downside tone. The short-term average trades under the longer one and flattens, signalling a lack of bullish follow-through after recent rebounds.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator around 45 keeps momentum on the soft side, showing sellers retain a slight advantage without reaching oversold extremes.

The EUR/USD pair may navigate the region around the initial support at the eight-month low of 1.1411, recorded on March 13. Further declines would put downward pressure on the pair to test the descending channel around 1.1250.

On the upside, the EUR/USD pair is testing the immediate resistance at the upper descending channel boundary around the nine-day EMA at 1.1544. A break above the channel would strengthen the market bias and support the pair to test the 50-day EMA at 1.1637. Further advances would open the doors for the pair to explore the region around 1.2082, the highest since June 2021, which was recorded on January 27.

EUR/USD: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.04%-0.06%-0.05%0.03%-0.07%0.15%-0.02%
EUR-0.04%-0.05%-0.07%-0.01%0.02%0.10%-0.05%
GBP0.06%0.05%0.00%0.06%0.10%0.17%0.00%
JPY0.05%0.07%0.00%0.06%0.08%0.17%-0.00%
CAD-0.03%0.00%-0.06%-0.06%0.03%0.12%-0.04%
AUD0.07%-0.02%-0.10%-0.08%-0.03%0.08%-0.08%
NZD-0.15%-0.10%-0.17%-0.17%-0.12%-0.08%-0.17%
CHF0.02%0.05%-0.00%0.00%0.04%0.08%0.17%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Offshore Yuan Set for Weekly Gains

April 3, 2026

The offshore yuan edged higher to around 6.88 per dollar on Friday, trimming gains from the previous session as market sentiment improved on growing hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman are said to be developing a protocol to “monitor transit” through the strategic waterway, a move aimed at easing regional tensions.

Elsewhere, countries such as India and the Philippines are actively negotiating with Tehran to ensure the safe passage of vessels, while also forming small diplomatic circles and exploring barter-style agreements. Meanwhile, China and Pakistan are advocating for their own multi-point diplomatic plan, as Iran maintains tight control over the shipping lane. Domestically, RatingDog data showed China’s composite PMI fell to 51.5 in March from 55.4 in February 2026, as both manufacturing (50.8 vs 52.1) and services (52.1 vs 56.7) sectors slowed. Over the week, the yuan is poised for a weekly gain, breaking a four-week losing streak.