Currency Hedger No Comments

NZD holds losses below 0.5850 on weak Chinese data

  • NZD/USD softens to near 0.5830 in Monday’s Asian session. 
  • China’s Retail Sales rose 0.2% YoY in April; Industrial Production climbed 4.1% YoY in the same period. 
  • A surge in US inflation has triggered a shift in Fed expectations toward a rate hike. 

The NZD/USD pair trades in negative territory around 0.5830 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces some selling pressure following the downbeat Chinese economic data. 

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday showed that China’s Retail Sales rose 0.2% YoY in April, compared to 1.7% in March. This figure came in weaker than the market expectations of 2.0%. 

Additionally, Industrial Production climbed 4.1% YoY in the same period, versus 5.7% prior, below the market consensus of 5.9%. The China-proxy Kiwi weakens after the release of the weaker Chinese economic data. 

On the USD’s front, traders raise their bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates this year. Several Fed officials this week stated that keeping inflation pressures in check was a top priority, while others did not rule out the possibility that rate hikes may be needed if price pressures kept rising.

Markets are now pricing in nearly a 48.4% odds the Fed could hike rates by at least 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, compared with 14.3% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Currency Hedger No Comments

AUD/USD remains subdued below 0.7150 following China’s data

  • Australian Dollar holds losses as China’s Retail Sales rose 0.2% YoY in April, against 2.0% expected and 1.7% prior.
  • Fed officials prioritized controlling inflation, suggesting further interest rate hikes remain necessary if price pressures persist.
  • The US Dollar finds safe-haven support as the US and Iran remain far from an agreement.

AUD/USD loses ground for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.7130 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair depreciates following key economic data from Australia’s close trading partner, China.

China’s Retail Sales rose 0.2% year-over-year (YoY) in April vs. 2.0% expected and 1.7% in March. Chinese Industrial Production climbed 4.1% YoY in the same period, compared to the 5.9% forecast and 5.7% seen previously. Meanwhile, the Fixed Asset Investment came in at -1.6% year-to-date (YTD) YoY in April, weaker than the expected increase of 1.6%. The March reading was a rise of 1.7%.

The AUD/USD pair also loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) rises on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) shifting toward a more aggressive policy stance on inflation. Several Fed officials recently emphasized that controlling inflation is their top priority, even suggesting that further interest rate hikes could be necessary if price pressures persist. Financial markets have sharply increased the likelihood of a December rate hike to nearly 48%, up significantly from just 14% a week prior, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Meanwhile, the Greenback is receiving support from increased safe-haven demand amid ongoing geopolitical conflicts. The United States (US) and Iran remain far from an agreement to end weeks of fighting and reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping route.

US President Donald Trump escalated tensions by publicly warning Iran to make progress or face new consequences. Because the Strait remains effectively closed, global oil prices are continuing to climb, which places a heavy economic burden on countries that rely heavily on energy imports. Global investor anxiety is heightened further by warnings from Chinese leader Xi Jinping to President Trump that Taiwan could trigger direct clashes between their two economies.

Currency Hedger No Comments

CAD hangs near one-month low vs bullish USD; rising Oil prices limit losses

  • USD/CAD stands firm near one-month top amid sustained USD buying interest.
  • Fed rate hike bets and geopolitical tensions benefit the USD’s safe-haven status.
  • Rising Oil prices underpin the Loonie and cap any further upside for spot prices.

The USD/CAD pair trades with a positive bias above mid-1.3700s during the Asian session on Monday, though it remains below a one-month top touched last Friday. A sustained US Dollar (USD) buying interest acts as a tailwind for spot prices while rising Crude Oil prices underpin the commodity-linked Loonie and cap further gains.

In a post on Truth Social, US President Donald Trump warned Iran on Sunday that the “clock is ticking” and that there “won’t be anything left” if action is not taken soon, adding that “time is of the essence.” Adding to this, the Times of Israel reported that Israel and the US are actively advancing military preparations to potentially resume coordinated attacks against Iran. This raises the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which, along with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, lifts Crude Oil prices to a two-week high.

Meanwhile, elevated energy prices continue to fuel inflationary concerns and bolster market expectations for a more hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed). In fact, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates that traders are currently pricing in over a 50% chance of a Fed rate hike by the end of this year. Apart from this, persistent geopolitical uncertainties lift the safe-haven USD to its highest level since April 7, offsetting the negative factors and supporting the USD/CAD pair. This, in turn, favors bulls and backs the case for further appreciation.

Moving ahead, there isn’t any relevant market-moving economic data due for release on Monday, either from the US or Canada. That said, fresh developments surrounding the Middle East crisis might continue to infuse volatility in the financial markets and drive Crude Oil prices. Furthermore, the USD price dynamics should contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities around the USD/CAD pair. The aforementioned fundamental backdrop, however, suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside.

Currency Hedger No Comments

AUD/JPY – Tests ascending triangle bottom near 113.00

  • AUD/JPY may rebound toward the nine-day EMA of 113.72.
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index near 50 hints at a current lack of directional conviction.
  • A break below the triangle would expose the 50-day EMA support at 112.44.

AUD/JPY extends its losses for the third successive day, trading around 113.20 during the Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a potential busted pattern or bearish failure as the currency cross is positioned on the lower trendline of an ascending triangle. A sustained break below the lower trendline would indicate that buyers have lost momentum and sellers have taken control.

The AUD/JPY cross holds a mildly bullish near-term bias as it remains above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The pair is consolidating after its recent pullback, with price now caught between short-term resistance at the nine-day EMA and underlying trend support from the longer EMA, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at roughly 50 signals neutral momentum and hints at a lack of directional conviction for now.

On the upside, the AUD/JPY cross may rebound toward the nine-day EMA of 113.72. A break above the short-term average would support the currency cross to test the all-time high of 114.74, aligned with the upper boundary of the ascending triangle around 115.00.

A successful break below the triangle would expose the 50-day EMA at 112.44. Further declines would put downward pressure on the AUD/JPY cross to navigate the region around the three-month low at 108.79, recorded on March 31.

AUD/JPY: Daily Chart

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.02%0.08%0.10%0.00%0.22%-0.00%-0.02%
EUR-0.02%0.04%0.09%-0.02%0.20%-0.02%-0.05%
GBP-0.08%-0.04%0.02%-0.07%0.14%-0.07%-0.09%
JPY-0.10%-0.09%-0.02%-0.14%0.10%-0.15%-0.15%
CAD-0.01%0.02%0.07%0.14%0.22%0.00%-0.01%
AUD-0.22%-0.20%-0.14%-0.10%-0.22%-0.20%-0.20%
NZD0.00%0.02%0.07%0.15%-0.00%0.20%-0.01%
CHF0.02%0.05%0.09%0.15%0.01%0.20%0.01%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger No Comments

Offshore Yuan Extends Fall on Weak Data

The offshore yuan weakened to around 6.81 per dollar on Monday, extending losses from the previous week as a series of weak economic data weighed on sentiment. New home prices across 70 major cities fell 3.5% year-on-year in April 2026, marking the sharpest pace of decline since May 2025, as existing stimulus efforts have yet to restore meaningful momentum in housing demand. Moreover, industrial output moderated to 4.1% year-on-year in April, marking the weakest expansion since July 2023, as disruptions linked to the Iran conflict weighed on manufacturing activity and export-oriented output. Retail sales growth also lost momentum, increasing just 0.2% year-on-year, the weakest performance since December 2022, highlighting subdued domestic consumption. On the labor front, China’s surveyed urban unemployment rate edged down to 5.2% in April from a more than one-year high of 5.4% in March, slightly better than market expectations and the lowest level since January.

Currency Hedger No Comments

Trade of the day: GBPUSD

Facts:

  • The pair bounced off the lower limit of 1:1 structure at 1.3500
  • Main trend on the pair remains upward from the beginning of April

Recommendation: Trade: Long GBPUSD at market price Target: 1.3635, 1.3700 Stop: 1.3439

Opinion: Looking at GBPUSD chart, one can observe that the price bounced off the key technical support marked with the lower limit of 1:1 structure (red rectangles), as well as the 200-period moving average from H4 interval. In addition, the price formed a pin bar pattern on the chart. Should buyers manage to hold the price above the support area near 1.3500, another upward impulse may be about to start. We recommend taking a long position on GBPUSD at market price with two targets: 1.3635, and 1.3700. We recommend placing a stop loss order at 1.3439.

Currency Hedger No Comments

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Remains above 1.1700 near 50-day EMA

  • EUR/USD may test the primary resistance at the nine-day EMA of 1.1730
  • The 14-day Relative Strength Index is near 50, indicating a lack of strong direction.
  • The lower ascending channel boundary is acting as immediate support, near the 50-day EMA at 1.1697.

EUR/USD inches higher after three days of losses, trading around 1.1710 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The daily chart technical analysis indicates a potential for a bearish reversal as the pair is positioned on the lower boundary of the ascending channel pattern.

The EUR/USD pair is holding just above the 50-day Exponential Moving average (EMA) but still capped by the nine-day EMA, which keeps the near-term tone broadly neutral with a slight bullish tilt. The price hovering between these averages suggests consolidation after recent gains, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 50 hints at balanced momentum rather than a strongly directional move.

On the upside, the primary barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.1730, followed by the 12-week high of 1.1849, reached on April 17. A break above this level would support the pair to test the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.2040. Further advances above the channel would lead the pair to explore the region around 1.2082, the highest since June 2021, reached on January 27.

The EUR/USD pair is positioned on the lower ascending channel boundary, aligned with the 50-day EMA at 1.1697. Further declines will put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the region around the nine-month low of 1.1411, recorded on March 13.

EUR/USD: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.04%-0.05%-0.03%-0.01%0.02%0.06%-0.06%
EUR0.04%-0.03%0.00%0.03%0.00%0.06%-0.02%
GBP0.05%0.03%0.02%0.06%0.06%0.09%0.03%
JPY0.03%0.00%-0.02%-0.01%0.03%0.06%-0.05%
CAD0.01%-0.03%-0.06%0.00%0.04%0.06%0.00%
AUD-0.02%0.00%-0.06%-0.03%-0.04%0.05%-0.00%
NZD-0.06%-0.06%-0.09%-0.06%-0.06%-0.05%-0.07%
CHF0.06%0.02%-0.03%0.05%-0.00%0.00%0.07%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Currency Hedger No Comments

British Pound hovers ahead of UK GDP data, awaits Trump-Xi meeting updates

  • GBP/USD steadies as traders await preliminary Q1 UK Gross Domestic Product data due on Thursday.
  • Traders also await further news on the ongoing Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing.
  • US wholesale inflation reached a post-2022 peak in April, as the Producer Price Index surged to a 6.0% annual rate.

GBP/USD holds ground following three days of losses, trading around 1.3520 during the Asian hours on Thursday. Traders await the preliminary UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2026, along with Industrial and Manufacturing Production data due later in the day.

The GBP/USD pair holds ground as the US Dollar (USD) remains firm on market caution as traders await further updates amid the ongoing meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. Traders will also shift their focus to the US Retail Sales report for April due later in the day.

As the world’s two largest economies attempt to stabilize their relationship, they are reportedly considering a framework to reduce tariffs on roughly $30 billion worth of goods, excluding those tied to national security.

However, geopolitical tensions remain a major factor. The US-China summit has taken place against the backdrop of the war in Iran. Washington has recently increased pressure on Tehran by imposing new sanctions on entities involved in selling Iranian oil to China and threatening banks that facilitate those transactions.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday that wholesale inflation hit its highest level since late 2022. The Producer Price Index (PPI) surged to 6.0% year-over-year in April, up from 4.3% in March and well above the 4.9% expected by the market. On a monthly basis, PPI rose 1.4%, doubling the previous month’s 0.7% and far exceeding the anticipated 0.5% increase.